Big 12 football win-loss record predictions for each team post-spring

With the Big 12 Conference schedules and rosters finally set, the only thing left to do is play the games. Well, at least in three months.

Until then, we're all due for a heaping helping of speculation. From power rankings to bowl predictions, these are all the college football diehards have to generate the discourse needed to hold us over until Week 0 gracefully begins the greatest time of year.

While the Big 12 looks to be the most competitive and unpredictable conference in the nation again, let's lean into the dreaming and take a look at how we predict every Big 12 Conference team will finish in 2026.

UCF Knights

Sep 6, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; UCF Knights head coach Scott Frost looks on during the second half against the North Carolina A&T Aggies at Acrisure Bounce House. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images

Projected Record: 3-9

2025 record: 5-7 (2-7 Big 12)

Scott Frost's first year back in the Bounce House was a rollercoaster, and I expect much of the same in 2026. The Knights drew a difficult conference schedule, having to face Houston, BYU and Oklahoma State in the middle of the season, and will enter the season with one of the weaker rosters, with far less continuity than most teams in the Big 12. UCF will have winnable games later against Baylor and Kansas, but I'm doubtful Frost is the man to turn this ship around, despite some nice moves in the transfer portal.

Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas Jayhawks head coach Lance Leipold applauds on the sidelines during the first half of the game against West Virginia Mountaineers at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium on Sept. 20, 2025.

Projected Record: 3-9

2025 record: 5-7 (3-6 Big 12)

For the first time in six years, the Kansas Jayhawks will be without quarterback Jalon Daniels, and I'm not confident in their succession plan. Head coach Lance Leipold will more than likely lean on either Cole Ballard or Rice transfer Chase Jenkins, who both lack the experience needed to compete against a top-heavy Big 12. While there is a universe where the Jayhawks sneak back to five wins, their ceiling will be quite limited in 2026.

Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State football coach Jimmy Rogers speaks during a timeout in the first half in the Iowa State and Iowa men’s basketball Cy-Hawk series at Hilton coliseum on Dec. 11, 2025, in Ames, Iowa.

Projected Record: 4-8

2025 record: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12)

While Iowa State had a solid yet underwhelming 2025, they are victims of the transfer portal era in 2026. Losing the head coach, quarterback and 23 other Cyclones to Penn State will take a massive toll on Iowa State this season, despite an intriguing hire in Jimmy Rogers. Iowa State drew an easier conference schedule than most and could sneak into the six-win territory. I fear the program must rebuild its foundation before returning to its peak.

Cincinnati Bearcats

Cincinnati Bearcats head coach Scott Satterfield speaks to the referees in the fourth quarter of the NCAA football game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and Bowling Green Falcons at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati on Sept. 6, 2025.

Projected Record: 4-8

2025 record: 7-6 (5-4 Big 12)

Another victim of the transfer portal, the Cincinnati Bearcats are due for some regression following a very fun 2025 season. Losing quarterback Brendan Sorsby and Evan Pryor will be massive losses for a program that was finding its footing in the Power Four ranks. While I liked what head coach Scott Satterfield did in the transfer portal, they pulled one of the hardest Big 12 Conference schedules. Having to run an insane gauntlet of Texas Tech, Utah and Houston in the middle of the year without star returners could prove overwhelming for the Bearcats.

Baylor Bears

Sep 20, 2025; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda reacts during the second half against the Arizona State Sun Devils at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images

Projected Record: 5-7

2025 record: 5-7 (3-6 Big 12)

Bringing in DJ Lagway should go a long way in making Baylor an exciting watch in 2026, but that doesn't always translate to winning football. The issue with the Bears last season was their defense, and while they brought in Hosea Wheeler on the defensive line, they lost far more key pieces than they added. Dave Aranda will have to put on one stellar coaching job to push this team past what they did a year ago.

Kansas State Wildcats

Kansas State new head football coach Collin Klein makes remarks at his introduction ceremony at Morgan Family Arena on Dec. 5, 2025.

Projected Record: 5-7

2025 record: 6-6 (5-4 Big 12)

Under new head coach Collin Klein, the Kansas State Wildcats should get off to an excellent start, dominating non-conference play. Once Big 12 play starts rolling, that's when things get tough, with road games against Arizona State, TCU and Colorado. Thanks to returning quarterback Avery Johnson, the Wildcats should be very competitive. They could easily surpass this expectation, but the unknowns of a new head coach hold me back from predicting more.

West Virginia Mountaineers

Nov 8, 2025; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Rich Rodriguez talks with Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders after the game at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Projected Record: 5-7

2025 record: 4-8 (2-7 Big 12)

In the first year back under Rich Rodriguez, West Virginia rebuilt its entire team from scratch and got the results that a patchwork team would expect. Now in the second year, I expect the Mountaineers to be far more competitive and love the additions of running back Cam Cook and quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. While the rebuilding program won't be ready to compete with the conference's top brass, I expect to see a more put-together team in the hills of Appalachia.

Colorado Buffaloes

Apr 11, 2026; Boulder, CO, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders during the spring game at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Projected Record: 6-6

2025 record: 3-9 (1-8 Big 12)

Colorado marks the beginning of the projected bowl-eligible teams in the Big 12 Conference. But the Buffs will have to scratch and claw their way to get there. Unlike 2025, there's only one non-Power Four team on the schedule, FCS's Weber State, and they won't be avoiding the Big 12's best. I believe in Julian Lewis and the addition of Brennan Marion as the offensive coordinator, but reaching bowl eligibility is still a difficult road ahead for Coach Prime's Buffaloes.

TCU Horned Frogs

Sep 20, 2025; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes reacts to a penalty during the first half against the SMU Mustangs at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Projected Record: 8-4

2025 record: 9-4 (5-4 Big 12)

There's something about a Sonny Dykes TCU team that I just can't quit. Despite the loss of star quarterback Josh Hoover, the Horned Frogs reloaded in the transfer portal, bringing in Jaden Craig from Harvard, one of the FCS's best quarterbacks from 2025. Dykes earned a lot of respect from me during last year's Alamo Bowl, and how he got his team up for that game. While I don't think we'll be seeing a 2022-esque College Football Playoff run, the Horned Frogs will be competitive yet again under Dykes.

Arizona State Sun Devils

Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham looks up at the scoreboard during a game against NAU at Mountain America Stadium in Tempe on Aug. 30, 2025.

Projected Record: 8-4

2025 record: 8-5 (6-3 Big 12)

I'm a massive fan of Kenny Dillingham and the rebuild he's led the Sun Devils through, but Arizona State's 2026 schedule is grueling. Playing Texas A&M, Texas Tech, BYU and rival Arizona all on the road are such tough games that would require perfection from this Sun Devil roster. Adding Omarion Miller and having a more stable quarterback situation will help Arizona State rebound from the thrilling ride that was 2025. Still, I don't think it'll be enough to get back to the conference's mountain top.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Head coach Eric Morris walks the field during Oklahoma State football practice in Stillwater, Okla., on Tuesday, March 24, 2026.

Projected Record: 8-4

2025 record: 2-10 (0-9 Big 12)

There were not many Division I teams worse than Oklahoma State last season, but this is far from the Cowboys' team we saw a year ago. Now under former North Texas headman Eric Morris, Oklahoma State should bounce back with a potent offense and rebuilt defense. Even with a massive jump in talent and production, this team will have its fair share of struggles as it comes together under a first-time Power Four head coach. After last year, I doubt Cowboys fans would complain about an eight-win season.

Arizona Wildcats

Nov 1, 2025; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Arizona Wildcats head coach Brent Brennan reacts after a touchdown by wide receiver Javin Whatley (6) in the second quarter against the Colorado Buffaloes at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Projected Record: 9-3

2025 record: 9-4 (6-3 Big 12)

Arizona's head coach, Brent Brennan, faced significant scrutiny after a disappointing first year, but that scrutiny has now been erased. An incredible bounce-back season in 2025 inspires a lot of confidence in the Wildcats, especially after they were able to keep Noah Fifita in Tucson as their starting quarterback. Much of their season will come down to how Brennan's defense fares against the Big 12's best in Texas Tech and BYU, but I would not be surprised to see them in the title fight come December.

Utah Utes

Sep 14, 2024; Logan, Utah, USA; Utah Utes defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley watches his team play against the Utah State Aggies at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

Projected Record: 9-3

2025 record: 11-2 (7-2 Big 12)

Utah is an impossible team to pin down because of the wackiness surrounding their head-coaching search this offseason. With Kyle Whittingham no longer at the helm, there should be some regression, even with a hand-picked successor leading the way in Morgan Scalley. Any longtime reader will know I'm a massive fan of Devon Dampier, but he's losing offensive coordinator Jason Beck, who was a massive part of his success in the last two years. While the Utes should be strong, there are just too many unknowns for me to predict them challenging for the title.

Houston Cougars

Oct 26, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars head coach Willie Fritz reacts after a play during the second quarter against the Utah Utes at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Projected Record: 10-2

2025 record: 10-3 (6-3)

Houston was the surprise in the Big 12 last season, and nothing is stopping me from thinking they'll be even better in 2026. Returning quarterback Conner Weigman, while adding some pieces with tremendous upside like running back Makhi Hughes and wideout Trent Walker, Willie Fritz and his staff have the Cougars rolling into next season. An easy non-conference schedule should help them build momentum early and cruise through a middling conference slate.

BYU Cougars

BYU Cougars football head coach Kalani Sitake celebrates after an interception as winning 41-27 over Iowa State during the third quarter at Jack Trice Stadium on Oct. 25, 2025, in Ames, Iowa.

Projected Record: 11-1

2025 record: 12-2 (8-1 Big 12)

BYU was a team I had my doubts about going into 2025; I left with none. Under Kalani Sitake, the Cougars have been a force to be reckoned with, and the same should continue next season. Sophomore quarterback Bear Bachmeier was nothing short of awesome in his true freshman season, and if he can take it to the next level, BYU will be a true CFP contender. Use their matchup against Notre Dame as a measuring stick for how far they can go in 2026.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire signals to the officials during a Big 12 Conference football game, Saturday, Nov. 8, 2025, at Jones AT&T Stadium.

Projected Record: 11-1

2025 record: 12-2 (8-1 Big 12)

The potential loss of Sorsby at quarterback does give me pause for predicting another dominant year for the Red Raiders, but they are so much more than their quarterback. While last season didn't end the way they had hoped, Texas Tech, especially their defense, was a buzzsaw in the Big 12. That shouldn't change, as head coach Joey McGuire brought in another stellar transfer portal class with plenty of stars to rebuild their dominant team. Don't be surprised, with or without Sorsby, to see Texas Tech vying for a national title this winter.

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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: Big 12 football post-spring record predictions for 2026 season