Bill Simmons says Pacers are 'swimming in karma points' heading into NBA Draft lottery

The Indiana Pacers have a slightly better than 50% chance of getting a top-four NBA Draft pick. They also have a slightly less than 50% chance of not having a first-round pick.

Even though their chances are a "Survivor"-style coin flip, Bill Simmons of The Ringer believes Indiana has accrued a "swimming pool of karma points" heading into the NBA Draft lottery on Sunday, May 10.

Simmons and "First Things First" co-host Nick Wright talked all things NBA on a recent Simmons podcast, ending the episode by comparing lottery teams and their "karma points." They believe the Pacers have the most, though they can't cash them in for a guaranteed top-four pick.

"They flip the coin, and if it comes up heads, they get a top-four pick. And they get (Ivica) Zubac, and they get Tyrese Haliburton coming back," Simmons said. "(If that happens), they're probably going to be the No. 2 favorite in the East."

Wright said that if there is an "acceptable reason" to throw away a season, Indiana had it, given that they reached Game 7 of the NBA Finals in 2025 and the Eastern Conference Finals in '24.

"We recalibrate it. We didn't tear it down. We took a gap year," Wright said of the Pacers. "They're well-run. They have a plan."

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Simmons agreed: "We got to Game 7 of the Finals, we took a risk with our best player, and the worst possible outcome happened, and it ruined our next season."

Haliburton blew out his right Achilles in the first quarter of Game 7, which the won. Haliburton missed the 2025-26 season, and massive injury issues early on left the Pacers swimming upstream all season. They wound up 19-63.