Bitcoin has room to rally, but there's a catch

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

It’s risk-on again for markets after a Reuters report suggested a ceasefire plan between the U.S. and Iran could come into effect on Monday, potentially reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Bitcoin BTC$69,625.83 has climbed over 4% over 24 hours to nearly $70,000, lifting sentiment across the broader market. The CoinDesk 20 Index and XRP (XRP) also added 4%, while ether (ETH) jumped over 5%, alongside a 3% gain in solana (SOL).

The tone is reinforced by bullish signals in the futures market, a continued decline in bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, and a 0.8% gain in Nasdaq 100 futures.

Meanwhile, Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy — the world’s largest publicly listed bitcoin holder — hinted at another BTC purchase. The company already holds 762,099 BTC, underscoring its dominant reserve position and long-term accumulation strategy. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to increase oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, a symbolic effort to relieve energy market stress.

Together, these point to potential for further upside in crypto.

But there’s a caveat. Recent ceasefire headlines citing unidentified sources have proven unreliable, often being debunked or outright rejected by Iran. If that pattern repeats, markets could quickly reverse course.

Another key question is whether any U.S.-Iran ceasefire would be binding on Israel. If not, the current risk-on sentiment may prove short-lived.

Notably, the latest ceasefire push is being described as a last-ditch effort to prevent the “massive strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure,” President Donald Trump threatened over the weekend.

Meanwhile, the oil market continues to inject inflationary pressure into the global economy. Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia raised the price of its Arab Light crude for Asia-bound shipments in May to a record-high premium over Middle Eastern benchmarks.

Some observers warned that oil prices are nearing a danger zone. The 12-month rate of change in oil stands at 92%. Historically, a move to 100% has coincided with stock market collapses. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • April 6, 12 p.m.: DeFi Dev Corp. (DFDV) to host a March 2026 recap and Ask Me Anything (AMA) session on X Spaces.
• Macro
  • April 6, 09:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM Services PMI for March est. 55 (Prev. 56.1)
• Earnings(Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Nothing scheduled.

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes & calls
  • Aave DAO is voting to adjust oracle configurations, reduce liquidation thresholds, and modify interest-rate models across its V2 markets to support their continued deprecation. Voting ends April 6.
  • Decentraland DAO is voting to require the DAO Council and Regenesis Labs to formally publish a 2030 definition of success and contingency plan. The proposal currently has support from voters. Voting ends April 6.
• Unlocks
  • April 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 0.14% of its circulating supply worth $11.94 million.
• Token Launches
  • No major launches.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Nothing scheduled.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 3.56% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $69,805.19 (24hrs: +4.23%)
• ETH is up 4.34% at $2,154.80 (24hrs: +5.42%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 3.78% at 1,977.26 (24hrs: +4.06%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 2.69%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0058% (6.3400% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.11% at 99.91
• Gold futures are up 1.60% at $4,726.10
• Silver futures are up 1.00% at $73.46
• Nikkei 225 closed up 0.55% at 53,413.68
• Hang Seng closed down 0.70% at 25,116.53
• FTSE 100 closed on Thursday up 0.69% at 10,436.30
• Euro Stoxx 50 closed down 0.70% at 5,692.86
• DJIA closed down 0.13% at 46,504.67
• S&P 500 closed up 0.11% at 6,582.69
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.18% at 21,879.18
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.46% at 33,108.20
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 4.26% at 3,623.86
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1 bps at 4.31%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,644.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 24,370.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are unchanged at 46,779.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.02% (unchanged)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.030877 (1.02%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 954 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $31.75
• Total Fees: 1.61 BTC / $108,359
• CME Futures Open Interest: 106,600 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 14.9 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 4.66%

Technical Analysis

WTI oil's 12-month rate of change. (Jack Prandelli)

• The chart shows swings in WTI oil's price since 1986 in the upper pane. The lower pane shows the 12-month rate of change (ROC).
• Historically, whenever the ROC rises to 100%, stock markets have collapsed. And now, the ROC is approaching that marker again.
• "Every major market crash since 1987 was preceded by one signal," Jack Prandelli, a commodity market analyst and author of the Substack-based Merchant's News said on X.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $171.46 (–0.88%), +3.80% at $177.97 in pre-market
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $17.64 (+1.55%), +2.44% at $18.07
• MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA): closed at $8.71 (+8.33%), +3.10% at $8.98
• Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT): closed at $12.86 (+2.47%), +2.49% at $13.18
• Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ): closed at $16.23 (+6.08%), +1.79% at $16.52
• CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK): closed at $8.79 (+1.97%), +3.30% at $9.08
• Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD): closed at $6.10 (–8.68%)
• CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $35.76 (+2.58%)
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.37 (+3.71%), +2.06% at $37.12
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $90.26 (–0.53%), +4.20% at $94.05

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $119.83 (–2.40%), +4.04% at $124.67
• SharpLink (SBET): closed at $6.19 (–4.18%), +4.52% at $6.47
• Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.75 (–4.04%), +3.59% at $10.10
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.98 (–1.32%), +3.59% at $1.01
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.12 (–0.88%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $9 million
• Cumulative net flows: $55.93 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$71.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.51 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.68 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• US, Iran weigh peace plan as Trump's 'hell' warning nears deadline (Reuters)
  A Pakistan-brokered proposal aims to resolve the five-week conflict by calling for an immediate ceasefire followed by a brief period of broader negotiations. Tehran refused to open the Strait of Hormuz until a more permanent agreement is reached.
• Japan, South Korea stocks rise as investors assess Trump’s Iran war comments, extended deadline (CNBC): Japan and South Korean stocks rose Monday, while several key Asian markets were closed for holidays, with investors monitoring developments in the Middle East.
• Saudis raise Asia oil to record premium as war upends market (Bloomberg): Aramco will increase flagship Arab Light crude prices for May to a premium of $19.50 over regional benchmarks for refiners in Asia, according to a price list seen by Bloomberg.