Blake Mitchell, the Kansas City Royals' catcher, is having an unprecedented season, achieving a remarkable 70.3% rate of the 'three true outcomes'âwalks, strikeouts, and home runs. His unique hitting style and ability to generate high exit velocity have drawn significant attention.
Key points
Blake Mitchell is a catcher for the Kansas City Royals.
He was drafted eighth overall in the 2023 MLB draft.
Mitchell has a 70.3% rate of the 'three true outcomes'.
He has a .213 batting average and a .479 on-base percentage in High-A.
Mitchell fractured his hammate bone in February 2025.
Kansas City RoyalsBlake MitchellBryce HarperMike Trout
SURPRISE, AZ - MARCH 20: Kansas City Royals catcher Blake Mitchell (2) is congratulated by teammates in the dugout after hitting a home run against the Texas Rangers during a Spring Breakout game on March 20, 2026, at Surprise Stadium at Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
SURPRISE, AZ - MARCH 20: Kansas City Royals catcher Blake Mitchell (2) is congratulated by teammates in the dugout after hitting a home run against the Texas Rangers during a Spring Breakout game on March 20, 2026, at Surprise Stadium at Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Royals selected Blake Mitchell with the eighth overall selection in the 2023 Major League Baseball draft, a somewhat surprising pick at the time. High school catchers are an extremely risky demographic with a high failure rate, but the Royals believed in his hitting ability. To Mitchellâs credit, he had an excellent debut in 2024, hitting well in A-ball and forcing his way to High-A by the end of the year.
Unfortunately for Mitchell, he fractured his hammate bone last February and 2025 was therefore a bit of a lost season for him. He displayed the same command of the strike zone and propensity for striking out as he did in his debut season, but the recovery from the fracture sapped much of the power from his swing.
A lot of eyes were therefore on Mitchell this year. Could he develop as a hitter? Would he get his power back? Additional organizational pressure was also on Mitchell thanks to the unfortunate fact that Kansas Cityâs three previous first round picks before himâAsa Lacy, Frank Mozzicato, and Gavin Crossâhave flamed out in the minor leagues, with the Royals officially releasing Lacy this year. No team can endure drafting so high for so long and get nothing out those valuable picks, least of all a small market team.
So has Mitchell advanced? Well, heâs having a season for the ages, thatâs for sure.
Letâs start with what kind of hitter Mitchell is, because thatâs important. The Royals have, traditionally, valued defense, baserunning, athleticism, and contact ability. They have *not* valued power or plate discipline. But Mitchell is made up almost entirely of the latter two. Interestingly, the Royals knew it when they drafted him, .
And Harper, well, Harper is great, but heâs not a traditional Royals hitter. Harper knows the zone, has a swing built for home run power, and isnât afraid of striking outs. As a result, he walks a lot, hits a lot of home runs, and strikes out a lot. Those three events are sometimes called the âthree true outcomesâ because all three events happen independently of the defense. For his career, Harperâs plate appearances have resulted in one of those three outcomes 43.6% of the time, which is a lot, but not quite the extreme upper end. The real platonic ideal of the âthree true outcomesâ hitter of recent years has been , who has walked, struck out, or crushed a homer in 58.7% of his career plate appearances. Thatâs a huge percentage.
But Gallo canât hold a candle to what Mitchell is doing, because Mitchell is achieving one of the Three True Outcomes an almost unbelievable 70.3% of the time.
The above video is really the key to understanding why this is happening at all. Mitchell generates crazy bat speed with a fly-ball swing, which translates to elite exit velocity figures and verrrry long homers. As a result, pitchers stay away from him, and Mitchell is more than happy to draw walks when theyâre not giving him something to hit. At the same time, Mitchell isnât a guy to choke up on the bat and look to poke pitches to the opposite field and is perfectly content with a full-throated swingâeven if he ends up whiffing.
Mitchellâs triple slash in High-A is really funny because of this: .213/.479/.508. With a 33% walk rate, heâs gotten 31 walks on May 3; has walked 31 times *in a whole season* just once. But heâs also struck out 30.9% of the time, which is just a crazy situation.
Walking a lot, striking out a lot, and hitting a lot of home runs is a relatively common combo. But what Mitchell is doing so far this year is literally unheard of. No qualified hitter in MLB history has ever ended up with a walk rate *and* a strikeout rate north of 30%. Heck, lowering that figure to a 20% walk and strikeout rate only yields 10 hitter-seasons since 1970 (not counting 1994 and 2020):
Q&A
What is Blake Mitchell's current batting average and on-base percentage?
Blake Mitchell has a batting average of .213 and an on-base percentage of .479 in High-A.
How does Blake Mitchell's walk rate compare to other MLB players?
Mitchell's walk rate is 33%, which is exceptionally high compared to typical MLB standards, with no qualified hitter in history achieving both a walk rate and strikeout rate above 30%.
What injury did Blake Mitchell suffer that affected his 2025 season?
Blake Mitchell fractured his hammate bone in February 2025, which significantly impacted his performance that season.
How was Blake Mitchell's draft selection viewed by analysts?
Blake Mitchell was selected eighth overall in the 2023 MLB draft, a surprising choice given the high risk associated with high school catchers.
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Now, letâs be fair: weâve only had a month-ish of baseball so far, and the chances of Mitchell having his own bizarre 30/30 season over the full year are basically nil. But Mitchell does have 330 plate appearances in High-A ball overall, and heâs walked 23.3% of the time and struck out 32.4% of the time.
Whatâs the takeaway here, then? For starters, I donât think High-A is challenging him nearly enough, and if it were up to me Iâd promote him to Double-A tomorrow. Mitchell needs to cut down on his strikeout rate if he wants the best chance to succeed in the big leagues, but right now he can sleepwalk to being the most dangerous hitter on the team by simply murdering mistake pitches and spitting on the ones that arenât in the zone.
The other takeaway here isnât really a takeaway but an invitation to examine if Mitchell might indeed be able to succeed in the big leagues with a big olâ strikeout rate. I have thus far been very skeptical of Mitchell for this reason, but heâs starting to show a level of plate discipline and game power where it just might work. I mentioned Gallo earlier, but his career .194/.319/.456 line, while bizarre, kept him in the league for a decade. Could Mitchell be a sort of Gallo at the plate? Maybe! The other potential guy to look at is Munetaka Murakami, the rookie Japanese slugger who has a 144 wRC+ despite a 33.1% strikeout rate because he walks almost 19% of the time and hits dingers left and right. Like, the White Sox could not care less that heâs only hitting .223.
Iâd love it if Mitchell could wrangle his strikeouts down to a more manageable level. At the same time, itâs almost more fun to consider a world in which the Royals are the ones with the ridiculous Three True Outcomes player. Can the Royals develop such a hitter? That is another question, one that I donât really like my gut answer to. I guess weâll just half to wait and see.
