Bruins-Sabres Round 1 PREVIEW: Atlantic Antagonism

• Record: 45-27-10

• Points: 100

• Goals-For: 272

• Goals-Against: 250

• Leading Goalscorer: Morgan Geekie, 39 in 81 games

• Leading Points-getter: David Pastrnak, 100 in 77 games

• Leading Goaltender by performance: Jeremy Swayman, .908 SV%

• Corsi – Shot Attempts.

  • Corsi-For %: 48.92 (19th in the NHL)
  • Corsi-For per 60: 57.32 (16th in the NHL)

• Fenwick – Unblocked Shot Attempts

  • Fenwick-For %: 49.15 (19th in the NHL)
  • Fenwick-For per 60: 41.29 (17th in the NHL)

• Expected Goals – Shot Attempts weighted for their position on the ice. AKA “Shot Quality” AKA “Expected by you, dummy.”

  • Expected Goals-For %: 46.66 (28th in the NHL)
  • Expected Goals per 60: 2.56 (22nd in the NHL)

• High Danger

  • High Danger Corsi For per 60: 10.87 (24th in the NHL)
  • High Danger Goals For per 60: 1.33 (13th in the NHL)

Buffalo Sabres

• Record: 50-23-9

• Points: 109

• Goals-For: 288

• Goals-Against: 241

• Leading Goalscorer: Tage Thompson, 40 in 81 games

• Leading Points-getter: Also Tage Thompson, 81 in 81 games

• Leading Goaltender by performance: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, .910%

• Corsi

  • Corsi-For %: 49.28 (16th in the NHL)
  • Corsi-For per 60: 56.41 (19th in the NHL)

• Fenwick

  • Fenwick-For %: 49.83 (15th in the NHL)
  • Fenwick-For per 60: 42.18 (10th in the NHL)

• Expected Goals

  • Expected Goals-For %: 49.95 (17th in the NHL)
  • Expected Goals per 60: 2.71 (14th in the NHL)

• High Danger

  • High Danger Corsi For per 60: 11.6 (15th in the NHL)
  • High Danger Goals For per 60: 1.47 (4th in the NHL)

Series Preview

Man. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen these two teams against one another in the playoffs.

Ever since 2010, the Sabres have embarked on an over decade long wander in the desert to become the NHL’s punching bag when it wasn’t Arizona or Ottawa, and have returned a much more determined and battle-hardened team than even I thought they would be at the beginning of the season. At long last, the Sabres are not just watchable…but successful. Somehow, the Sabres found themselves out of hell.

Meanwhile, Boston has found an extra step they can take on the road to retooling that has had them making one of the most dramatic turnarounds in franchise history in terms of final regular season point totals. Marco Sturm found a way to get the Boston Bruins into a place where they could once again compete for Lord Stanley. The work of David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha, Victor Arvidsson, and Morgan Geekie, combined with resurgent performances from Charlie McAvoy and Jeremy Swayman, combined with a Bruins power play that was, and get ready for this…good…gave them a leg up on their contemporaries to get to another 100 point season.

Don’t go looking for anything that could help you from the 2010 playoffs; The Sabres are another animal altogether from where they were in 2009. Neither Boston nor even this Sabres team know what they are for the 2026 playoffs; both teams are lightyears away from where they’d been since that time. The game has changed so much in such a short amount of time.

What we have now, is two teams with a lot to prove.

X-Factors for Round 1

How will injury impact the series?

If there is a major up the B’s have over the Sabres, it’s in health. Their lineup is arguably as healthy as it’s ever been, with the only recent absences to the team being because two players became fathers, leaving them their full compliment and roster of players including Jimmy Hagens hot off of signing his ELC and playing in his first couple of NHL games. This will give them a necessary flexibility in playing the Sabres game-to-game that Buffalo just does not have right now.

Compared to the Bruins, the Sabres are beaten pretty badly: two players on injured reserve, and a grand total of four players that are considered day-to-day; Noah Ostlund, Alex Lyon, Sam Carrick, and Colton Ellis. Naturally if asked all four of these men would say they would be ready to go, but players at less than 100% can become liabilities if their injuries are severe enough. Carrick at less than 100% is also a major blow to the Sabres as he was one of their better performers down the stretch.

Meanwhile, Boston has been…just kinda fine? They’ve had some man games lost like all teams, but they were in the middle of the season and now they have the full compliment. That does mean however…that certain players may not be at 100%, and could theoretically re-aggravate if things

Congrats to Pavel Zacha and Casey Mittelstadt, by the way! Dad strength before the playoffs is also a major X-Factor!

Can the Bruins’ Depth keep up?

One of the big surprises of the year was Morgan Geekie and Pavel Zacha becoming trigger men for the Bruins after years of David Pastrnak holding that position down. Pasta himself has diversified his game far more into being a playmaker this year, but he too still had a scorer’s touch when asked for it. This has of course filtered throughout the lineup with a bunch of pleasant surprises like Marat Khusnutdinov and Fraser Minten having excellent years, the return to form for Victor Arvidsson, who finished the year the highest goal total he’s had since 2022-23; in 25.

The Sabres are right there with Boston; obviously the big names of Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch stand out but they’ve gotten some excellent work out of Josh Doan, Jason Zucker, and Jack Quinn, just to name a few. Both teams have over 10 players in double digit goals and it contributed majorly to their respective ascents back to the postseason and respectability. Some more in one category than another.

The big question of course, is if the pleasant surprises can keep up going into the playoffs.

One of the great strengths of Sabres hockey this year is the manic puppy energy that pervades their play; Sabres do not care if the game becomes a goalscoring race, because just about everybody of note in their lineup, including their defense, can score goals if it comes down to it. It’s what gives their “River Hockey” style so much danger; even if it’s not exactly tight, it can develop shooting lanes from just about anywhere. Boston meanwhile has still largely allowed their principal names alongside Arvidsson to do the lion’s share of the scoring, even if they’re getting good efforts from guys like Mark Kastelic and Casey Mittelstadt.

The Bruins depth needs to be able to match that energy with not just physicality, but in scoring mentality. The Sabres cannot get into the thought process that there will be shifts they can just dominate at will.

Can Boston’s Defense hold the line?

This is the lynchpin for Boston’s success in this series. At least in my opinion.

As we discussed previously, Boston’s defensive core has sort of formed through McAvoy, Lindholm, and yes, Nikita Zadorov as the movers and shakers…but the drop off from Lindholm to McAvoy to Zadorov are some steep cliffs overlooking a very deep ravine. Guys like Aspirot have been okay if a little frustrating, Jordan Harris was a tantalizing player who got some playing time but was waylaid by injury…but we know what Andrew Peeke and Mason Lohrei are at this point. We know that they are going to be the millstones around this team’s neck and that Marco Sturm will simply continue to play them. They have no other options.

We also know that just about every defender on this team, when given too much time with the puck, can start to exhibit some strange behavior.

Like it or not, this net-front defense may be contributed to by every player in Black and Gold but it’s the blueliner’s problem 90% of the time. It has to change in order for this to be a win.

While the Sabres defense can look particularly shambolic, with some of their better talents being prone to some spectacular blown plays, but they can keep their net-front clear. That’s something that Boston has struggled consistently with.

If the Bruins want to get anywhere against them, especially knowing that they’re gonna have to show a little more than just muscle to put Tage Thompson down for the count, they need to effectively break a bunch of their worst habits before Game 1. That includes the players that are already doing well; they need to be more. Puck possession needs to be used well, zone exits need to be crisp and if it can’t be done by a forward then by the puck carrier, keep-ins need to be done with intention, and bad passes to nowhere needs to end.

Further…we need the return of Playoff Lohrei. The reason Lohrei has even survived this long, in spite of all of his many issues as a player, is because of his playoff performance; He wasn’t looking great coming out of his first taste of regular season hockey, but absolutely came alive when the playoffs started. All of his problems melted into strengths, all his concerns becoming afterthoughts as he became one of the brightest spots on the back-end throughout that playoff run.

They need another performance like that. Whatever that was for him, it needs to come back. One defenseman who isn’t all that great can be workable. Any more than that is absolutely not an option.

Game 1 is on Sunday night.

Whatever you are in the light of a Best-of-7 Series is one that your fate in the regular season brought you to. All of your strengths and weaknesses.

This team has given us so many wonderful surprises. So many things to look forward to in their future.

So let’s see if they can give us one more fun surprise over the next couple of weeks.

Let’s go really stick it to a team in Blue this April.