Caleb Downs tops annual Giants most likely to be drafted list

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- Caution: Beware of the red-hot roller.

For four years straight, the top player on my Most Likely Giants Draft Pick list has been selected by the team starting with Evan Neal in 2022, followed by Deonte Banks, Malik Nabers and then Abdul Carter. For good measure, I hit on Jaxson Dart when New York traded back into the first round for the quarterback last year, too. Yahtzee!

This is the equivalent of the guy in the casino at the craps table in the middle of a legendary roll -- except that's a hard proposition to keep going.

This year's draft is wonky, to make matters difficult. Some of the best and cleanest players are at traditionally non-premium positions -- Jeremiyah Love at running back, Sonny Styles at inside linebacker, Caleb Downs at safety and Olaivavega Ioane at guard. It makes figuring the top 10 and first round borderline impossible.

It's safe to say this is an unusual draft.

"Maybe it's not the surplus positions or the higher-paying positions when you get into free agency [at the top of this year's draft]." Giants general manager Joe Schoen said at his pre-draft press conference, "we're going to take the best player available and we're not going to rule any of those [positions] out."

A safety is entirely possible as the Giant's No. 5 pick this year. A guard seems plausible with their second pick, 10th overall, in the first round.

How rare would it be if the Giants took Downs with the fifth pick? Only two safeties in the 21st century (Sean Taylor and Eric Berry) have been selected in the top five.

"I could never do it," one NFL executive said recently.

Guard is almost as uncommon in the top 10. Only four guards (Quenton Nelson, Brandon Scherff, Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack) have cracked the top 10 this century.

In most years, these positions would be non-starters for the Giants' picks. It's better value to take a quarterback or offensive tackle or wide receiver or edge rusher. The Giants' last six top 10 picks have been two offensive tackles, two edge rushers, quarterback and wide receiver. All premium positions.

This year could be way different. Good luck to me trying to keep this legendary roll alive.

Here's a ranking of the Most Likely Giants Draft Picks for their two first-round selections in 2026. Nailed it four straight years, including Carter last year at pick No. 3. Trying to make it a full handful now.

Pick No. 5:

1. S Caleb Downs, Ohio State

The Giants are especially high on Downs, to the point where he's square in the running at No. 5 no matter who is on the board. The buzz around Downs to the Giants has only continued to grow around the league in recent weeks. Executives and coaches seem to think he will be one of their choices, whether it's at five or 10.

In most years, a safety in this spot would seem crazy. But coach John Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson are defensive backs at heart. They like to build their defense from the back forward. Downs has the versatility and physicality that will allow them to stop the run and disguise their coverages. The hope is that Downs can be the Giants' Ed Reed or Kyle Hamilton.

2. RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame

It's hard to see Harbaugh passing on Love if he's available at five. The bigger question is: Will he be available? Some teams in the top five believe he's in play for the Arizona Cardinals with the third pick.

There are teams and scouts that consider Love the best prospect in the draft. He's dynamic not just as a runner but also with his pass-catching ability. ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. said Love grades out in the same stratosphere as Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson coming out of college. That's pretty special. General manager Joe Scheon said the Giants view him as an "offensive weapon." Would they really pass on the best skill position player in this draft? The answer seems to be no.

3. WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State

The Giants have been all over Tyson throughout the draft process. Perhaps more than any other team, one source told ESPN. It's not an accident Schoen flew across the country less than a week before the draft to watch Tyson's workout. The Giants think highly of him, but know he comes with a risk given the extensive injury history (knee, collarbone, hamstring). That's the thing to consider. The Giants have traditionally been extremely conservative when it comes to players and injuries in the draft. Otherwise, Tyson would probably be No. 1 on this list.

4. LB Sonny Styles, Ohio State

Let's start with the fact that there seems to be a strong chance that Styles isn't on the board when the Giants pick at five. Also, there are some in the Giants building that prefer Downs over him. That is why Styles is fourth on this list behind the other options even though he's one of the cleanest and most physically talented prospects in the draft. "By far the best stack linebacker," one defensive coach said. It's intriguing for the Giants given how Harbaugh teams value the middle linebacker position.

Pick No. 10:

Where the Giants go at five will dictate how 10 unfolds and this is much tougher to handicap than five given the nature of this draft. Can the Giants really bypass taking a defensive player at either spot? Probably not.

1. G Vega Ioane, Penn State

A guard and safety with two Top 10 picks. Well, Schoen did say basically throw out positional value in this year's draft. Ioane is a player that has had the Giants' attention since this past season. His run blocking ability stands out as the differentiator.

2. OL Francis Mauigoa, Miami

He would be the top option here at 10 if it weren't for some injury questions. Mauigoa's back has raised some concerns around the league, to the point that some teams feel surgery is inevitable. Again, same as Tyson, are the traditionally conservative Giants really going there with a top-10 pick? If so, Mauigoa can start at right guard and potentially slide out to tackle later down the road.

3. WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State

He was in consideration for the fifth pick. Does he make it to 10? If so, he probably would be the choice if the Giants land Downs at five. But ... watch out for the Saints at pick eight.

4. S Caleb Downs, Ohio State

Maybe, just maybe, the Giants think they can wait and take Downs at 10. Probably not though. We know they love the player.

5. CB Mansoor Delane, LSU

If the Giants don't get a defensive player with their first pick, this becomes a realistic option. Delane is a top talent at a premium position who league sources insist won't drop out of the top 10.