Canadiens On The Brink Of Taking Commanding Lead

The Montreal Canadiens are halfway there, as Bon Jovi once sang. They’ve won two games in their best-of-seven series against the favorite and experienced Tampa Bay Lightning, but the last two wins will be even harder to get as the Bolts are sure to up the tempo as they get pushed closer to elimination. Tonight’s game will be a pivotal one; there’s a huge difference between going back to Florida with a commanding 3-1 lead and heading back with a 2-2 tie.

Historically, the Lightning has a good record in Game 4 of a series, 23-16 for a .590 winning percentage, but it’s even better when said fourth game is on the road, they are 14-7 for a .666 winning percentage. However, their stats are a lot less enviable when they are trailing 2-1 in a series. Then, they are 6-8 for a measly .429 winning percentage, and it’s even worse on the road, where they are 3-6 for a lower .333 winning percentage.

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However, the Canadiens’ outlook historically is even worse. They are 61-64 in Game 4 of a series for a .488 winning percentage, and at home, they are 19-27 for an even worse .413 winning percentage. There is some good news for Canadiens’ fans, however. When they have a 2-1 lead in a series, their record goes up to 39-11, which is a .780 winning percentage, and it’s even better at home, where they are 29-5, for a .853 winning percentage.

Given the result of the last game, it’s probably fair to expect the Canadiens to have not only the same roster, but the same lines and pairings. Despite his first line being muzzled by the Bolts, Martin St-Louis has made it clear that he trusts his first line to find a way to produce, essentially because they are elite player.

Game three made it look like Jon Cooper was a clown in another life; his ability to juggle his lines is second to none, and even on the road, he was able to get the matchup he wanted, largely because the Lightning kept having the upper hand at the faceoff circle. had only a 35.7% success rate in the faceoff circle. It’s much easier for the other team to change a couple of players on the fly when they have puck possession.