Canadiens vs. Sabres Game 1 picks: Buffalo should capitalize in first conference semifinal game in 19 years

The Canadiens allowed the fewest goals per game (2.29) by a team that won in Round 1 and also allowed the fewest shots on goal per game (22.3) of any first-round team. The fewer shots that reach the net, obviously the better. While Tampa Bay had the No. 4 scoring offense in the league during the season at 3.49 goals per game, Buffalo was fifth at 3.45.

If there is one concern for Montreal, it's a sudden slump by former No. 1 overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky. He had a hat trick – all coming on the power play – in Game 1 against the Lightning but nary a point in the final six. In addition, the superstar Caufield had one goal in the series after a 51-goal regular season.

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The Sabres are in their first postseason since 2011 and won a round for the first time since 2007, when they last reached the conference finals. Buffalo ousted Boston in six last Friday, so it is rested. While Dobes started every first-round game in net for Montreal, Buffalo used Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in the first two games vs. Boston but the Finn struggled in the second game, was pulled and didn't play again.

Alex Lyon then won three of his four starts and will be the guy in net Wednesday. His 1.14 GAA and .955 save percentage were both second-best among all starting goalies in Round 1. Lyon and UPL basically split time during the season and had similar numbers. This will be the 33-year-old Lyon's first career playoff start against a team other than Boston, and he's 0-3 with a 3.77 GAA in his past three starts vs. Montreal.

Buffalo has a ton of offensive talent but managed to convert on just 4.2% of its power-play chances vs. Boston (worst of any Round 1 team) with a single goal, and won a scant 43.8% of faceoffs (second-worst). Those better get fixed or the Sabres aren't winning this series.

The clubs split four regular-season meetings, with the winning team scoring at least four goals in each. Nick Suzuki (two goals, six helpers) led the Habs with eight points in the series, while Thompson (three goals, four assists) led Buffalo with seven.

Two Buffalo forwards are out in Noah Ostlund and Sam Carrick – neither is close to a star but both rotation guys. Carrick has been out since being injured in a fight March 31 against the Islanders but should return at some point in the series. He was acquired from the Rangers around the NHL trade deadline in early March and had five goals and one assist in 13 games after the deal. He's good on the face-off as well.

The rookie Ostlund won't play in the series. He sustained a lower-body injury in the first period of Game 5 vs. Boston. He also missed the first two games because of an upper-body injury. Ostlund had 27 points (11 goals, 16 assists) in 60 regular-season games – including a goal and three assists vs. Montreal.

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I slightly prefer Over 4.5 for the potential 2-2 regulation tie win than alt Under 7.5 as 4.5 is solidly cheaper. I need a reason not to pick a home team, especially in the postseason. I don't have one here considering the home team is 6-1 in Game 1 all-time in this series. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.