Cavaliers-Pistons: Will Cleveland suffer another second-round exit? Series keys, schedule and prediction

Series schedule (all times Eastern)

Game 1: Tue., May 5 at Detroit (7 p.m., Peacock)
Game 2: Thu., May 7 at Detroit (7 p.m., Prime)
Game 3: Sat., May 9 at Cleveland (3 p.m., NBC)
Game 4: Mon., May 11 at Cleveland (8 p.m., NBC)
*Game 5: Wed., May 13 at Detroit (TBD)
*Game 6: Fri., May 15 at Cleveland (TBD)
*Game 7: Sun., May 17 at Detroit (TBD)

*if necessary

Series betting odds

Detroit Pistons (-120)
Cleveland Cavaliers (+100)

What we know about the Pistons

The Pistons won 60 games on the strength of the Eastern Conference’s top-rated defense (allowing 108.9 points per 100 possessions), and on the strength of Cade Cunningham, a fringe MVP candidate who can manufacture offense all by himself.

There were concerns about them from the outset of the playoffs, though, even as the No. 1 seed. They lacked secondary creation, depending upon Tobias Harris for much of it, and their 30.9 3-point attempts per game ranked behind every team but the Sacramento Kings, mostly because they counted on non-shooting contributors Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson for rim protection and point-of-attack defense.

Both issues reared their heads in a first-round series with the Orlando Magic, who took a 3-1 series lead on the backs of their defense, forcing the Pistons into the mud. They asked Cunningham to beat them, and he obliged, averaging an efficient 36-5-7 over the course of their comeback from a 3-1 series deficit against the eighth seeds.

Can James Harden and the Cavs get past Cade Cunningham and the Pistons? (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)

(Jason Miller via Getty Images)

In the absence of offensive contributions from Duren, a likely All-NBA selection whose scoring average fell from 19.5 points per game in the regular season to 10.6 against Orlando, Harris stepped forward, averaging 21.6 points in the first round.

The Pistons will need both Duren and Harris working in concert around Cunningham to contend with a Cleveland offense that is more potent than Orlando’s. The defense will travel. So, too, should Cunningham’s brilliance and Duncan Robinson’s shooting.

The question is whether the rest of the Pistons, including Isaiah Stewart, Daniss Jenkins, Javonte Green and Caris LeVert, none of whom have much experience, if any, in games as high-leverage as the Eastern Conference semifinals, can meet this moment. This is not your usual No. 1 seed. They are inexperienced and vulnerable.

What we know about the Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are not the 64-win edition from last season, when they lost in this same second round of the playoffs. That group boasted the NBA’s best offense and a top-10 defense. This version was rated sixth on offense and just 15th on defense.

They were so disjointed, in fact, that the front office conducted a major shakeup ahead of the trade deadline. First, they flipped De’Andre Hunter for both Keon Ellis and Dennis Schröder, a brilliant depth-bolstering move. Then, they traded Darius Garland for James Harden, a riskier move that swapped youth for veteran durability.

Harden’s backcourt partnership with Donovan Mitchell, alongside fellow recent All-Stars Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen in the frontcourt, bore immediate fruit, though a honeymoon stage with Harden was to be expected. They looked, for a spell, like a favorite in the East once again, performing well on both sides of the ball — the kind of production you would expect from a star-laden group with depth at its back.

Then, they turned back into a pumpkin. The tandem of Mobley and Allen felt a little too redundant. The lack of defense from Mitchell, Harden and everyone at the point of attack, save for Dean Wade, felt like a problem. There just wasn’t the togetherness they had for the majority of last season. And that carried into their first-round series.

The Raptors might have caught the Cavaliers, had Toronto been healthy for the entirety of their seven-game set, and that would have been bad for Cleveland, where even bigger changes await on the other side of another second-round playoff exit.

Head-to-head

The Pistons and Cavaliers tied their regular-season series, 2-2.

Harden missed the first three meetings against Detroit, and Mitchell missed the last two, so Cleveland’s backcourt did not play a minute together against the Pistons all season. Mitchell performed well against Detroit’s defense, totaling 65 points in two games, and Harden did not, scoring 18 points on 5-for-17 shooting in his lone chance.

Thompson can limit one of them severely, an interesting chess match to watch. Will he defend Mitchell, or, as was the case more often over the regular season, Harden?

Notable, too: Mobley and Allen finished -2 combined over 54 minutes against Detroit. The Cavs were better off with one of them off the floor against Orlando, too, so it will be fascinating to see how much of that double-big combo they can get away with.

Meanwhile, Detroit’s starting lineup — Cunningham, Thompson, Robinson, Harris and Duren — was outscored by five points over 51 minutes against Cleveland this season.

Something’s gotta give.

Matchup to watch

Cade Cunningham vs. Cleveland’s wings

Cunningham was exceptional against the Magic, especially considering he was only weeks removed from a collapsed lung. He averaged 40.4 minutes a game in the first round, and carried the heaviest of burdens, leading the league in usage rate, field-goal and free-throw attempts per game through the opening round of the playoffs.

He will have to do the same against Cleveland, as he is often Detroit’s sole source of shot creation, and the Cavaliers have few options to stop him not named Wade.

Jaylon Tyson, a second-year wing who averaged only 15.7 minutes per game off the bench against the Magic, drew the bulk of the assignment against Cunningham in the regular season, and did so admirably, but will Cleveland trust him in this big spot?

The Cavaliers’ offense looked more operational with the shooting of Sam Merrill or Max Strus on the wing, but either one gives Cunningham another pressure point to poke in addition to Mitchell and Harden. And the last thing they want is Cunningham getting comfortable against a Cleveland team that so often looks so uncomfortable.

Key question

Can Evan Mobley get comfortable against the Pistons’ defense?

We see Mitchell, Harden, Mobley and Allen — four recent All-Stars — together in one lineup, with all of the options available to them on the wing, and we think the Cavs should field a top-flight offense, if only because we saw one from them last season.

They have Mitchell and Harden, two of the greatest self-creators the game has ever seen, plus a pair of elite rim-running roll men. They should be carving up opposing defenses on either side of the court, picking between whichever combination can’t be stopped, but the offense falls apart when the defense doesn’t respect Mobley.

Of course, Mobley made the Magic pay, shooting 39.1% on 3.3 attempts per game from long distance, and converting them in big moments. But if his shot is not falling, Detroit will not worry about either Mobley or Allen as shooters, and the space with which Mitchell and Harden can create gets crowded real quick by Detroit’s length.

Cleveland is already dependent on Merrill and Strus as flamethrowers, but each of them gives Cunningham another point to attack. If Mobley can stretch the floor, if Mitchell and Harden can operate in space, if Allen is cleaning up around the rim, and if their wing du jour can be additive, then the Cavs have more collective firepower.

If, however, Mobley can’t get comfortable, neither will Mitchell nor Harden, and we have seen what can happen when both of them get uncomfortable. They take it on themselves, trying to do too much. That’s when Detroit will drag them into the mud.

Prediction: Pistons in six

Defense has been the difference-maker in these playoffs — for the Thunder and Spurs, who own the Western Conference’s two best outfits; for the Timberwolves, who upset the Nuggets; for the Knicks and Sixers, who clamp down on the wings; even for the Lakers against a Rockets offense that couldn’t get out of its own way.

Why shouldn’t that be the case for the Pistons, too, who can ratchet their defense and physicality up to levels we have not seen from the Cavaliers this year, despite the presence of Mobley, the NBA’s 2025 Defensive Player of the Year, on that end.

Meanwhile, Cunningham has a chance to be the best player in the series, if only because Cleveland has nobody who can compete with his size, skill and speed.