Championship or bust? For a healthy Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever, the time is now

To be fair to those over-anxious enthusiasts eyeing every new fashion choice or movement, that’s more highly attainable with a healthy, confident and joyful Clark.

The 2024 Rookie of the Year missed all but 13 games last year amid a string of soft-tissue injuries that shut her down for good in mid-July. The roster the front office built around their fourth-place MVP finisher went 16-15 without her, enduring an unprecedented stretch of season-ending injuries that decimated their roster. They took the Las Vegas Aces to overtime in Game 5 of the best-of-five semifinals and nearly pulled it off despite being without Clark, Boston or Mitchell on the floor.

Clark officially returned to game action with Team USA at the FIBA World Cup Qualifying Tournament in March. She won MVP. Within weeks, once the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) was signed, the Fever front office finalized the roster once again around her.

The front office successfully re-signed all-WNBA guard Kelsey Mitchell at the $1.4 million supermax in a frenzied free agency period in which nearly all of the players off of rookie contracts were free agents. Thrown a salary planning curveball in the new CBA, Indiana also boosted fourth-year center Aliyah Boston’s payday to $1 million via a four-year, $6.3 million extension.

Caitlin Clark seemingly has the supporting cast she needs to win it all, but can she make that kind of history in her third year? (Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Since Boston was named all-WNBA, she could fast-track to a larger contract under the new EPIC provision. Clark will be eligible next year with a raise from her $528,846 to the supermax. Not to fret — the Fever officially picked up her fourth-year option last month to put any semblance of doubts at ease.

They brought back perimeter shooters Sophie Cunningham and Lexie Hull, though the former’s deal is only one year. Indiana signed 2019 WNBA champion Myisha Hines-Allen to fill out the frontcourt and Tyasha Harris to back up Clark. Their first draft pick was used on South Carolina champion Raven Johnson, an even-keeled point guard and SEC Defensive Player of the Year.

They have the talent, the experience and a looming salary bill that will force them to readjust in coming seasons.

Realistic, right? Time for the unreasonable.

A Fever championship in what is essentially year 2 for Clark would enter her name, as well as that of the previous basement-dwelling Fever, into rare air. Only five No. 1 overall picks taken since 2020 won their first WNBA championship within their first three playing seasons.

Minnesota’s Maya Moore (2011) and Houston’s Tina Thompson (1997) won as rookies in unique situations. They went on to win four each with their organizations.

Brittney Griner won in her second WNBA season in Phoenix in 2014 as the centerpiece of a team that already rostered champions Diana Taurasi, Penny Taylor and DeWanna Bonner. Sue Bird (2004) and Breanna Stewart (2018) won in their respective third years in Seattle. The 2018 Storm title resulted from the big three formed with Jewell Loyd, who was in her fourth season as the first of the Storm’s back-to-back top picks.

That’s the sweet spot, a more realistic timeline for any franchise building a contender. There are incremental builds, at least in the recent past. Five players won it in the fourth year and four in the fifth, meaning 70% of the No. 1 picks from 1997-2020 didn’t win until they were either at the end of their rookie contracts or the first of an extension.

The Las Vegas trio of Kelsey Plum, A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young needed a minimum of four years, breaking through from previous runner-up heartbreak in 2022 by adding veteran point guard Chelsea Gray. Sabrina Ionescu, the 2020 No. 1 overall pick, missed the majority of her rookie season with an ankle injury. After adding All-Stars Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Courtney Vandersloot, she and the Liberty won it in 2024. It was essentially her fourth year.

Rhyne Howard, the 2022 No. 1 overall pick, is in year five on an Atlanta Dream team that might have added its final piece in a trade for Angel Reese.

Clark, in her third professional season, and Boston, in her fourth, could match that Seattle duo of No. 1s. Mitchell, the Fever’s second overall pick in 2018, is their Bird. Or they could take a little longer with a potentially different cast of characters as the years build.

The recent boom of free agency moves makes that easier on a franchise. It doesn’t make them any less impatient. Nor should they be. The Fever are in a position to capitalize on winning it all now, leg sleeves and all.