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Championship predictions: Middlesbrough to take step closer to Premier League
Our football betting expert and top tipster Jones Knows offers up his insight on every Sky Bet Championship match on Good Friday and shares his best bets.
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Middlesbrough vs Millwall, Friday 12.30pm, live on Sky Sports
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Are Middlesbrough wobbling at the worst possible time?
They've won just two of their last seven Championship matches, meaning a seven-point gap to Ipswich now stands at just two. And who is this coming up on the rails? It's only Millwall, who can leapfrog Middlesbrough by taking three points. It's getting serious up there.
One key aspect to Boro's form of late is that the underlying data across the last seven games is still very strong. Over those seven games they've won every expected goals battle very comfortably and their xG supremacy figure is +1.4 per game which is a mighty return. One you'd associate with a team winning a title.
With a little bit of variance due in their direction they should get back on the promotion train here.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
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The Sky Sports Essential EFL podcast looks at the promotion race in the Championship
Birmingham vs Blackburn, Friday 3pm, live on Sky Sports+
If you're looking for a punchy angle into this one, the first-half markets could be the place to play, especially with Birmingham's tendency to come flying out of the traps at St Andrew's.
There's a really strong data angle here that makes the 6/4 with Sky Bet on Birmingham to be winning at half-time stand out as a bet worth your attention.
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No team in the Championship can better their expected goals figure before the break, which sits at a chunky 18.58. And it's not just underlying data doing the talking. Only Hull City and Ipswich have scored more home goals before half-time, putting Birmingham right at the top table when it comes to turning that intent into actual pressure.
This isn't about backing Birmingham outright over 90 minutes, where inconsistency can creep in. It's about isolating a clear strength of fast starts and attacking a specific market that plays right into it.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
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Charlton vs Bristol City, Friday 3pm, live on Sky Sports+
There are some appointments in football that make you sit up and take notice. Then there are some that make you scratch your head and wonder what on earth is going on.
Enter Roy Hodgson.
His arrival at Bristol City - 44 years after he first left the club - has all the hallmarks of a move designed to generate headlines rather than immediate results.
Hodgson himself has admitted he doesn't know a great deal about the current squad, which is hardly ideal preparation heading into a competitive Championship fixture. Add the fact he inherits a group stretched by injuries and you've got a manager bounce that looks vulnerable rather than revitalised. Home win it is at 23/20 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Leicester vs Preston, Friday 3pm, live on Sky Sports+
Motivation is everything at this stage of the Championship season and you won't find a bigger contrast than what we've got here.
On one side, you've got Leicester City scrapping for their lives. On the other, Preston North End drifting towards the finishing line with very little left to play for.
Leicester's situation is simple: results are everything.
Performances can take a back seat if needed: it's about digging in, finding moments and getting points on the board. That's where the influence of Gary Rowett could prove pivotal. Throughout his career, he's built a reputation for setting teams up to grind out results, particularly in high-pressure situations just like this one. It's not always pretty, but it's often effective.
A low scoring home win please.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Norwich vs Portsmouth, Friday 3pm, live on Sky Sports+
No team has earned more Championship points since Christmas than Norwich City, posting 12 wins from 17 matches as Philippe Clement has overseen a remarkable turnaround.
The Canaries have kept seven clean sheets in 12 league games, conceding just five goals in that run. The results have been backed up by the data.
Yet the market is dangling Evens with Sky Bet against struggling Portsmouth, who have lost three on the spin, five of their past six and have just been pumped 6-1 by QPR. Ebou Adams, Pompey's key man, is also out with injury for the trip to Carrow Road. The home win is a very generous price.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Norwich to win (Evens with Sky Bet)
Oxford vs Hull, Friday 3pm, live on Sky Sports Football - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
This is a good match-up for Oxford in terms of set-pieces. They've created 3.6 worth of expected goals from set-pieces in their last five games - accounting for over 65 per cent of their entire xG output. So this is a team that gives you a great run for your money when you're backing the usual set-piece based markets.
Hull have conceded the second most xG from set-pieces this season at 18.05 and have conceded 15 goals via that route. Michal Helik is the man to back then at 10/1 to score with Sky Bet.
He's had six shots in his last five starts, including opening the scoring in Oxford's 3-1 win at Preston. Helik has also scored three times in seven starts against Hull.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Michal Helik to score (10/1 with Sky Bet)
QPR vs Watford, Friday 3pm, live on Sky Sports+
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals rates as a cracking wager here at Evens with Sky Bet.
Loftus Road is the highest-scoring Championship venue this term, averaging 3.47 goals per game with 79 per cent of those contests producing over 2.5 goals.
Both teams to score has clicked in all four of Edward Still's matches in charge of Watford on the road with the per-game average coming in at a healthy 3.25 goals. Both teams are expected to bring the noise and attacking intent in what could be a fun and goal-heavy encounter.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals & BTTS (Evens with Sky Bet)
Sheffield United vs Swansea, Friday 3pm, live on Sky Sports+
There's a strong case for opposing clean sheets at Bramall Lane right now and that leads us nicely into a juicy goalscorer angle.
The hosts have gone nine games at home without a clean sheet.
Whether it's structural issues or lapses in concentration, teams are finding ways through them with alarming regularity. So, if you're shopping in the anytime goalscorer market, it makes sense to latch onto the top goalscorer in the division at 11/4 with Sky Bet to fire again in Zan Vipotnik.
The Swansea striker has 17 goals this season and there's nothing fluky about the return. His movement in the box is sharp, he gets repeat chances and he's shown he can be clinical when those opportunities fall his way.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Stoke vs Sheffield Wednesday, Friday 3pm, live on Sky Sports+
Stoke City have quietly turned into one of the more watchable - and backable - teams in the division over the past few weeks, and a lot of that can be traced back to the return of the classy Million Manhoef.
Since he came back into the fold seven games ago, Stoke's attacking output has found a new gear. The numbers tell the story: those seven matches have averaged a hefty 3.7 goals per game, with six of the seven clearing the over 2.5 goals line. That's not coincidence, that's a team playing with more intent and risk. It's leading to bulky goals outputs.
The key here is not just backing goals blindly, but aligning that trend with a Stoke side who have the edge in quality and momentum over a rudderless Sheffield Wednesday.
That's why the 10/11 with Sky Bet for a Stoke win and over 2.5 goals makes plenty of appeal.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
West Brom vs Wrexham, Friday 3pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Backing centre-backs to get on the scoresheet remains a real favourite punting pastime of mine.
George Campbell is playing with confidence and arriving in the box with intent to score at the minute - as seen by his return of three goals in his last six games. It's a pattern driven by increased attacking responsibility from set-pieces and a team playing with renewed energy under new boss James Morrison. He has breathed life into a side that looked destined for trouble not too long ago. Suddenly, West Brom are playing with purpose, belief and have given themselves a genuine shot at survival.
Campbell is 10/1 with Sky Bet to score.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Coventry vs Derby, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports Football - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
There's a time in every promotion push where the equation becomes crystal clear: just win games and the rest takes care of itself.
That's exactly where Coventry City find themselves. Charging towards the Championship title, they know 11 points from their final seven matches will be enough to seal a return to the Premier League for the first time in 25 years. It's a target that sharpens the mind and, more often than not, brings out decisive performances.
Coventry City Derby County
Friday 3rd April 7:30pm
Kick off 8:00pm
Derby will point to a solid away record of nine wins on the road in the Championship. But dig a little deeper and there's a clear red flag.
None of those victories have come against teams starting this round in the top half. They tend to lose their way up against the best teams in this division. At 11/8 with Sky Bet, backing Coventry to win and over 2.5 goals looks like the sweet spot. If they do get on top, history suggests they won't just edge it, they'll look to put the game to bed in style.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Coventry to win & over 2.5 goals (11/8 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows' best bets...
1pt treble on: Norwich to win, over 2.5 goals & BTTS in QPR vs Watford & Coventry to win & over 2.5 goals (8/1 with Sky Bet)
1pt on Michal Helik to score (10/1 with Sky Bet)
1pt on George Campbell to score (10/1 with Sky Bet)
0.5pt double on Helik & Campbell to score (100/1 with Sky Bet)
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