The St. Louis Cardinals' minor league hitters are under review after a month of play, highlighting key prospects like Joshua Baez. Early performances can impact promotion timelines for these players.
Key points
St. Louis Cardinals are reviewing minor league hitters
Joshua Baez is a notable prospect
A month of play has occurred at all levels except rookie leagues
Early performances can affect promotion timelines
St. Louis CardinalsNew York MetsJoshua Baez
veb
Mar 7, 2026; Jupiter, Florida, USA; St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Joshua Baez (22) hits a home run in the second inning against the New York Mets at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images | Jim Rassol-Imagn Images
I think now is a very good time to check on the minor leagues. A month has been played at all levels (except the rookie leagues, but they havenāt started their seasons yet) and while a month of playing time isnāt necessarily a good sample, it can tell us things. Players can have such strong first months that it fuels their later promotion, or players can start so slow that it significantly delays when they will get promoted. We shouldnāt overreact to either. Today I wanted to focus on the hitters, because they simply have a better sample than the pitchers.
I know there were some people who wanted Baez to make the team out of spring training, but I think we need to prepare ourselves for the possibility that Baez might not be ready for the big leagues all year. At this point, I think an ideal outcome is something like what happened with Masyn Winn. Winn got hot in the middle of the year in 2023, built up his hitting line and got a final month and change to see what MLB pitching looks like. Baez doesnāt have as far to go as Winn did (Winn was as low as a 77 wRC+ on June 11th), but he does need to strike out significantly less. I also would expect a bit of a learning curve when he does make the majors (hence why a month and change this year might be ideal).
Things are more or less on track for Bernal ā I would expect him to have a below average hitting line in his first 100 PAs, and thereās nothing alarming in the way heās gotten there. Youād hope for a little more power and a little less strikeouts, but again these look like what I would expect from Bernal if he needed some time to adjust to a new level. Heās still walking, the strikeouts are reasonable, and he has a little punch. We will see Jimmy Crooks this year, we will probably not see Bernal, but that was the expectation going in.
Q&A
Who are the top hitting prospects for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2026?
Joshua Baez is highlighted as a top hitting prospect for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2026.
How does a player's performance in the minors affect their promotion to the MLB?
Strong performances in the minors can lead to quicker promotions, while slow starts may delay advancement to the MLB.
What is the current status of the St. Louis Cardinals' minor league season?
The minor league season has been underway for a month, providing initial insights into player performances.
What impact does early season performance have on minor league hitters?
Early season performance can significantly influence a player's promotion timeline and future opportunities.
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By the numbers, it looks like Crooks is ready for the major leagues with his K rate finally going down. Iām going to push back on that a little here. Two reasons: first, I donāt really trust his BB rate. Pitchers will not walk him 18% of the time in the majors. He has certainly increased my expectation of how much heāll walk at the MLB level, but I donāt know if heāll be a high BB guy based on 2025, both in the majors and Memphis. I also donāt trust his power numbers, because I didnāt realize this until now, but his HR/FB% is literally 50%. Half of the flyballs he has hit have been homers. Aaron Judge doesnāt do that. Judgeās career rate is 31.8% and just 19 qualified hitters had even over a 20% HR/FB% last season. These would not be concerns for me if his K rate was 25%, which I think he is capable of at Memphis. He lowered his K% four and half points this past week and had four extra base hits so he might get there soon.
Iām not going to say his ISO is misleading, but heās on pace for three less homers than last season with the same amount of PAs. Heās only hit two homers. Heās hitting more doubles. Which is great, but I donāt really think his power has actually improved, you know? I would still like to see him at the MLB level. He definitely wonāt walk this much, Iām more curious on how much heāll strike out. Because I think heāll walk as much as a player like him can, so his success at the MLB will hinge on if his K rate is 15% or 20%.
Unfortunately, Jordan got hit by a pitch in his face yesterday and had to be removed from the game. Hopefully, nothing is seriously wrong, he can come back soon, and continue raking. To compare him to Crooks, Jordanās HR/FB% is 29.6%, which is more than heāll have in the major leagues, but hopefully represents a genuine improvement in power. For most of his minor league career, heās been around 14%. Bump that up a few percentage points and his MLB picture certainly changes.
There is good news. He was on an epic slump from April 14th to April 24th, where he went hitless in six of his eight games played and in the two games he got a hit, he hit a single and that was it. But since April 25th, Ledbetter has a 9.5 BB%, 23.8 K%, a .164 ISO, and a 134 wRC+. Yes, he didnāt hit a homer and yes he had a .444 BABIP in that stretch, so letās hope he gets home run power, but I am particularly encouraged by the K/BB after his awful, awful start to the year.
I donāt think Mendoza is a part of the plan. Heās not technically a starter. Blaze Jordan tends to be at 3B, Torres tends to be at 2B, the outfield is a combo of Nelson Velazquez, Baez, and Ledbetter while one of the catcher DHs. But he keeps hitting. He is forcing his way into more playing time. He hit his third homer yesterday. He exclusively plays 2B or 3B so I donāt know how good his defense is, but heās a fun story.
I thought about not sharing his stats at all, but he is outfield depth on a team that regularly plays infielders in the outfield so itās possible he will get hot and become a factor later in the year, especially if Baez doesnāt appear to be ready. With that aside, he is going to need to go on a real heater for that to be the case, because he has started very slow.
Springfield
Deniel Ortiz, 1B/3B ā 21 (#18 VEB prospect)
Ortiz suffered a wrist injury, and thatās about all we know. Minor league injury information is very scant. He hasnāt played since the first game of the year, when he went 0-5 with two strikeouts. Pretty unfortunate.
That is one ugly average to look at, however I do think thereās reason for optimism with Davis. Namely, the thing that got him drafted was his power and heās already hit half the homers he did last year. It remains to be seen if thatās causing his low BABIP, but weāre still in far too small sample territory. He wasnāt going to be anything more than a defense-first outfielder with how he hit last year, if he can find power, maybe thereās something here.
Levenson has the kind of hitting line that really makes you appreciate Chase Davisā line. Which says more about Levenson unfortunately. But not a whole lot in the numbers to get excited about here. He finished his season strong last year in Springfield, but in slightly more PAs this year, he has not been able to build on that quite yet.
Very good start for Rivas. He did start hot last year too, so buyer beware. But Rivas is a defense-first shortstop who isnāt considered a prospect, because of his bat. If he can hit at all, literally at all, he will be a major leaguer. He made it to Springfield very young, at 21, entirely on the strength of his defense, and he got close to an average hitting line, but it came with no power. Last year, he added sufficient power, but the strikeouts and BABIP made him a bad hitter. If, and itās a big if, he can have just enough power, strike out a normal amount, and still manage decent BABIPs, he might become an actual prospect.
Honeyman still needs more power, especially at Springfield, but he hit his second home run yesterday. He hit two all last year. He was drafted in 2023, and then had 82 total PAs between the rest of 2023 and the 2024 season. He missed some time to injury last season too. Itās entirely possible he will find enough power to make the rest of his profile work ā because power is really the only thing missing.
Claimed in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft prior to last season, there was no reason to think anything of Ugueto, especially when he hit for a 67 wRC+. There probably still isnāt, but heās made himself interesting. He has also, itās worth noting, stolen 16 bases to one caught stealing. This is a pretty stark difference from last season when he stole 9 bases to 5 caught stealing in Springfield.
Oh boy you are in the wrong organization. Thatās right, we have a catcher who has always had a good eye but never had power come bursting out in the first month with power. He has hit more homers so far this season than his previous 527 PAs as a professional. He is a tiny, tiny guy, so there are still concerns, but do we have to start paying attention to yet another catcher? This is getting ridiculous.
Springfield is just filled with guys who need to add power. They are in the right place. If Gazdar had a normal BABIP, heād have a really good hitting line. And itās tough to say if a hitter is unlucky or not in this small of a sample. But Iād say this is good news more than bad news despite the below average hitting line.
Well honestly, I ended up covering more players than I expected, so this one is going to have to be a two-parter on just the hitters. Memphis has a pretty stacked lineup, Springfield certainly is worse off than last season.
