Chiefs Week 1 quarterback odds: Sportsbook clearly favoring Patrick Mahomes to be ready off major knee injury

"I don't think that's on the table anymore. I think from a league standpoint, there would be some concern whether [Patrick Mahomes] would be ready to go," Hunt said at the NFL owners' meeting in March.

Does anyone really want to see Justin Fields, rookie Garrett Nussmeier or Chris Oladokun in the first NFL game of 2026 in primetime? Plus, the Chiefs clearly are not a good team without Mahomes under center, cratering to 11 losses in 2025. Although, Mahomes wasn't quite up to usual standards himself in 14 games played, leading one-game winning drive compared to seven in 2024.

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Mahomes tore those ligaments Dec. 14, had surgery the next day – that was huge for his recovery instead of having to wait weeks due to swelling -- and by all accounts is ahead of schedule in his rehab. The two-time regular-season MVP is expected to participate in Kansas City's OTAs beginning May 26, but obviously in very limited fashion.

"He is in a good position to be able to do some things," coach Andy Reid said of Mahomes last week regarding OTAs. "If he can do some things, [he'll do it]. Phase 2 [of the offseason program], remember, there's no contact and there's no offense versus defense. It's Phase 3 that you get into that. ... He's in a position where he can do everything, I think."

Since becoming the team's full-time starter in 2018, Mahomes has missed five games due to injury and eight in total (rest). The Chiefs are 2-6 in those games and averaging just 14.6 points per game in them, compared to 27.7 PPG with Mahomes. That 13.1-point decrease is the second-largest by a team without its starting QB since 1950 (minimum five games missed).

During the offseason, the Chiefs traded for Fields and drafted LSU's Nussmeier in the seventh round of the draft to compete with Oladokun for Kansas City's backup spot, and obviously the Week 1 gig if things don't quite stay on schedule for No. 15. It would be pretty shocking if that winner isn't Fields considering he has 53 career NFL starts and Oladokun two (losing both in 2025).

FanDuel lists Mahomes as the -720 favorite as the Week 1 guy, which equates to an 87.8% chance, with Fields at +500 and any other QB at +3500. If it's the latter, then something clearly went really wrong for the Chiefs. That their win total is set at Over/Under 10.5 also seems to hint at Mahomes being ready. He is +1100 for a third MVP.

"He's way ahead of schedule ... we're in a really good place right now," GM Brett Veach told the media on May 1.

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