Chronicling the Rise of the Senators and the Collapse of the Red Wings

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Well folks, it’s official: the Ottawa Senators are headed to the playoffs! Back on January 24th, they sat last in the Atlantic Division, and second last in the Eastern Conference. At that time, the Detroit Red Wings led the Atlantic and were tied for the most points in the East. The two teams were separated by 16 points.

Now, the Sens are up five points on the Wings, with Detroit having officially been eliminated from the playoffs for the 10th consecutive season. As much as this story is about the dominance of the Senators over the last two and a half months, the fall of the Red Wings needs to be discussed as well. Let’s dive into the details.

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Ottawa Senators by the Numbers

The Senators 4-1 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes on January 24th put them in sole possession of 15th place in the Eastern Conference. This was when their season turned around. Have a look:

• First 51 Games: 23-21-7, 3.22 goals/game, 3.39 goals against/game, 22.9 PP%, 71.8 PK%
• Last 29 Games: 20-6-3, 3.62 goals/game, 2.31 goals against/game, 24.4 PP%, 83.6 PK%

Let’s break down these numbers among all NHL teams:

• First 51 Games: 25th in point %, 12th in goals/game, 28th in goals against/game, 10th in PP%, 31st in PK%
• Last 29 Games: T-1st in point %, 4th in goals/game, 1st in goals against/game, 10th in PP%, 5th in PK%

Clearly, it was a full team turn-around. Sure, their goal scoring and power play were solid in the first 51 games, but even those numbers have jumped to greater heights since. Goal prevention is where the Senators improved even more dramatically. A lot of that has to do with their goaltending. Take a look:

• First 51 Games: .865 team SV% (32nd in the NHL)
• Last 29 Games: .900 team SV% (7th in the NHL)

That .865 SV% had the Senators on pace for the lowest team SV% in the NHL since the 1993-94 Ottawa Senators. Keep in mind, that was the Senators second year of existence. Individually, Linus Ullmark went from an .881 SV% to a .904 SV%. His 14 wins since he returned from his leave of absence on January 31st tie for the league lead.

Detroit Red Wings by the Numbers

Now for the collapse part of the equation. The Red Wings beat the Winnipeg Jets 5-1 on January 24th to tie the Carolina Hurricanes for the most points in the East. Sure, the Red Wings had played one extra game, but they were undoubtedly in a great spot to end their long playoff drought. Well, so much for that! Let’s have a look at the numbers:

• First 53 Games: 32-16-5, 3.11 goals/game, 2.96 goals against/game, 24.7 PP%, 79.3 PK%
• Last 27 Games: 9-14-4, 2.59 goals/game, 3.15 goals against/game, 19.7 PP%, 73.5 PK%

And now for a league wide comparison of those numbers:

• First 53 Games: 4th in point %, 17th in goals/game, 13th in goals against/game, 6th in PP%, 18th in PK%
• Last 27 Games: 28th in point %, 30th in goals/game, 22nd in goals against/game, 22nd in PP%, 27th in PK%

This is the complete reverse of the Senators. They truly fell off in every category. Clearly they were heavily reliant on their power play, which regressed, just like every other part of their game. The Red Wings didn’t become a mediocre team, they became one of the worst teams in the NHL. Keep in mind, they were buyers at the deadline. Here’s what their deadline acquisitions did for them:

• Justin Faulk: 15 games, 4 goals, 6 points, -3, 20:16 time on ice/game
• David Perron: 14 games, 2 goals, 2 points, -9, 13:42 time on ice/game

The Senators were the ones who traded Perron to the Red Wings. He was replaced by Warren Foegele, who has scored 5 goals and 7 points in 19 games with Ottawa. It certainly wasn’t just Faulk and Perron that caused the collapse of Detroit. Lucas Raymond for example, had a dramatic fall-off. He scored 58 points in his first 51 games, but has scored just 18 points in his last 27 games.

The Defining Game

Let’s go back to March 24th. The Senators were in Detroit to take on a Red Wings team that was one point ahead of them. Here were the problems:

• They were playing for the second night in a row, having played in New York against the Rangers the night before.
• They were without Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot and Nick Jensen on defense.
• The Red Wings had won all three meetings to that point in the season.

Any back-to-back is tough, but playing both games on the road in two different cities, plus missing both Chabot and Sanderson made this feel like a scheduled loss for the Senators. Also, depth d-men Dennis Gilbert and Lassi Thomson were out, leaving the Sens to call on Jorian Donovan and Carter Yakemchuk to play their first career games.

The result? An incredible 3-2 Senators victory that propelled them ahead of the Red Wings in the standings for the first time since December 5th. The Senators never let the Red Wings pass them back after that. The Red Wings had plenty of tough losses down the stretch to keep them out of the playoffs, but given the circumstances, this one had to be the worst.

Final Thoughts

There was a point in time when it felt like none of the teams battling for the last few playoffs spots in the East were losing a whole lot. The exception to this of course, was the Red Wings. They lost 8 of their last 11 and 18 of their last 27 to find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture.

The Senators, meanwhile, never gave up. They played 20 games without Brady Tkachuk early in the season. They endured 50 or so games of horrendous goaltending. Linus Ullmark took a leave of absence part way through the year. Jake Sanderson missed 13 games. They used 12 defensemen after the Olympic break. In the end, their resilience has been rewarded with a second straight trip to the playoffs.

These two teams have shown plenty of disdain for each other over the last few years as they’ve tried to work their ways back to contender status. Clearly, the Senators have the upper hand. The Red Wings, meanwhile, have to figure out what to do next after a horrible collapse has left them out of the playoffs yet again.

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