College basketball transfer portal 2026-27 winners and losers: Duke, Florida lead free agency victors

You could make a strong argument that teams like Kansas and Kentucky are major losers at this point in the cycle, but there are still some avenues for that to flip in the coming weeks, especially with No. 1 recruit Tyran Stokes' looming decision. Louisville is another one where the jury is still out. Despite owning the top-rated transfer portal haul after landing Kansas big man Flory Bidunga, Oregon point guard Jackson Shelstad, Iowa stretch 4 Alvaro Folgueiras and Arkansas wing Karter Knox, it's still a bit too early to fairly judge the Cardinals' outlook until the depth pieces come into play. The Cardinals desperately need a thumper and an organizer. Same deal with a team like Tennessee, which has added some real-deal talent but is still pursuing some moves that could change the outlook dramatically.

With patience and context in mind, let's dive in.

Winner: Florida

There was only one senior who stayed at one school for all four years in the entire SEC last year (Mississippi State's Shawn Jones).

Florida will have two four-year seniors next year after the enormous news that Tommy Haugh will eschew the NBA Draft and run it back with Alex Condon. The Haugh-Condon big-to-big passing has terrorized opponents for years, and the Gators get another year of it. If Rueben Chinyelu returns to Gainesville for his senior season instead of staying in the NBA Draft, Florida's terrifying frontcourt will be ready to rock and roll yet again.

That gives Todd Golden's outfit one of the highest floors in the country with a legitimate chance to be the preseason No. 1 team in the nation. Especially parlayed with the news that point guard Boogie Fland, sniper Urban Klavzar, slasher Isaiah Brown and intriguing depth pieces like CJ Ingram, AJ Brown and Alex Lloyd will all return.

This is ridiculous, unprecedented retention.

Oh, and the Gators could add old friend Denzel Aberdeen back in the mix to start at the 2-guard spot if he gets a waiver for an extra year of eligibility.

Florida's rebounding will be elite. Florida's two-way rim dominance will be outstanding. The guard play should tick up with Fland reaping the rewards of the patented Year 2 transfer jump.

Gator boys stay hot.

Projected starting lineup

• G Boogie Fland
• G Denzel Aberdeen (if the waiver clears)
• F Tommy Haugh
• F Alex Condon
• C Rueben Chinyelu

Top bench options: G Urban Klavzar, G Isaiah Brown, G CJ Ingram, G AJ Brown, G Alex Lloyd

Winner: Illinois

Retention? Illinois checked that box off by retaining five key rotation players from last year's Final Four club in David Mirkovic, Tomislav Ivisic, Zvonimir Ivisic, Andrej Stojakovic and Jake Davis.

High school recruiting? Illinois checked that box off by landing a deep freshman class, headlined by do-it-all guard Quentin Coleman and jumbo handler Lucas Morillo.

Transfer portal? Illinois checked that box, too, with a ceiling-raising addition like Providence's Stefan Vaaks, who has the positional size, shooting and playmaking that Brad Underwood craves.

Illinois also didn't lose a major difference-maker from its rotation, and dispelled the notion that Underwood can't retain top talent.

You book your tickets to the Final Four in late March, but Final Four rosters are built in April and May. Illinois' A+ offseason vaults the Illini into the elite tier nationally. Its starting lineup has loads of size, shooting and five different players who can go for 20 points on any given night. The rebounding and paint protection will be massive strengths, and the role identification shouldn't be too much of a hassle with all these familiar faces back and talented guards walking into an easy-to-define job description.

It's time to chase another banner in Champaign.

Projected starting lineup

• G Stefan Vaaks
• G Quentin Coleman
• Wing Andrej Stojakovic
• F David Mirkovic
• C Tomislav Ivisic

Top bench options: G Jake Davis, C Zvonimir Ivisic, G Lucas Morillo, G Ethan Brown, F Zavier Zens

Loser: Wake Forest

There are haves and there are have-nots, and Wake Forest is the latter these days. Wake Forest lost its best player (Juke Harris) and its second-best player (Myles Colvin) to the portal. Oh, and its best recruit (Quentin Coleman) was poached by an Illinois program that could sell a Final Four and Keaton Wagler.

So now, Steve Forbes has to replace the entire rotation at the worst possible time because the prices for free agents in the transfer market are sky high, especially for a place like Wake Forest that is not near the top of the pecking order in ACC resources.

Merrimack transfer point guard Kevair Kennedy is a good evaluation. He will be productive for Wake Forest because almost every transfer is productive at Wake Forest. Monmouth's Justin Ray can shoot, and Kansas transfer Jamari McDowell is out to prove he's got more to his game than being a seldom-used, seventh man.

But Wake Forest just feels like a feeder program right now. Good evaluation and relationship-building to land Coleman? Lose him to Illinois. Good evaluation and development with Harris? Lose him to free agency.

Not all jobs are created equal in this era of college basketball, and Forbes is finding that out the hard way right now at Wake Forest.

Loser: Notre Dame

Either Notre Dame's administration starts taking basketball seriously, or stuff like this is going to keep happening every single year. Notre Dame's best three players (Jalen Haralson, Cole Certa and Markus Burton) steered a mass exodus for greener pastures. Haralson, Certa and Burton would have formed a formidable ACC backcourt, but Notre Dame couldn't reach market value.

So Micah Shrewsberry has to play Moneyball. Additions like Gonzaga transfer point guard Braeden Smith, Penn transfer sniper Ethan Roberts and Winthrop big man Logan Duncomb all project to be Day One starters, but the talent level has decreased in South Bend.

This is not an NCAA Tournament-caliber roster at this point because Notre Dame doesn't have the financial oomph to retain its top talent.

Winner: Duke

It hasn't all been sunshine and rainbows for Duke after losing Nik Khamenia to UConn, but Jon Scheyer has reloaded and built a roster that has paths to being a top-five offense and a top-five defense.

Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell is the straw that stirs the drink. The 6-foot-4 veteran guard is an outstanding shooter, cutter and driver. He'll fit in nicely. Belmont transfer big man Drew Scharnowski is going to provide a physical presence, a mean streak and sneaky-good passing next to returning big man Patrick Ngongba, who could be one of the best players in the ACC next season. Plus, Duke retained steady guards like Cayden Boozer and Caleb Foster to help massage the transition into Duke for the new faces from the portal and Scheyer's top-rated recruiting class.

Duke is already in a great spot right now after multiple big offseason wins, but the Blue Devils would be a legitimate contender to be the No. 1 team in the country if it hits on a few more additions, namely retaining defensive wizard Dame Sarr and landing coveted Santa Clara transfer Allen Graves.

Projected starting lineup

• G Cayden Boozer
• G John Blackwell
• Wing Dame Sarr
• F Cameron Williams
• C Patrick Ngongba

Top bench options: F Drew Scharnowski, G Caleb Foster, G Deron Riippey Jr., G Bryson Howard

Winner: Texas

Sean Miller absolutely crushed it this spring with four portal splashes at four huge positions of need. Texas' defense should be one of the 10 best in America next year after the addition of TCU transfer forward David Punch, who can defend all five positions and is a total warrior. It has serious offensive firepower thanks to the addition of jitterbug Colorado transfer point guard Isaiah Johnson. It has terrific positional size after landing twitchy 6-foot-8 wing Elyjah Freeman and chiseled 6-foot-5 guard Amari Evans from Auburn and Tennessee, respectively. Texas already had a strong core in place when it returned Matas Vokietaitis and reeled in a tantalizing, No. 14-rated recruiting class, headlined by top-20 guard Austin Goosby, but this transfer class should vault Texas near the top of the SEC pecking order. The Longhorns will be elite defensively. They will be huge. They will trot out a ton of lineups with four players standing 6-foot-5 or taller. They'll have much more defensive flexibility after being stuck playing a ton of drop coverage last year.

Texas has a path to being a top-10 team because of the yeoman's work it has done in the portal, in retention and in prep recruiting. When you can dip your toes into all three avenues for roster-building, special things can happen.

Projected starting lineup

• G Isaiah Johnson
• G Austin Goosby
• F Elyjah Freeman
• F David Punch
• C Matas Vokietaitis

Top bench options: G Amari Evans, G Joe Sterling, G Bo Ogden, F John Clark

Loser: Kansas State

New Kansas State coach Casey Alexander clearly did not have access to a deep war chest, and this roster represents that. Kansas State has added nine transfers. None of them earned a four-star grade from the 247Sports portal scouting team. None of them were on a NCAA Tournament team last year. None of the talented Belmont transfers followed Alexander from Nashville to Manhattan, and Colorado State transfer point guard Brandon Rechsteiner is the lone addition who averaged more than 9.0 points per game a year ago.

You can see the idea of what Alexander is trying to build with lots of shooters, big wings and some legit size, but this is clearly a squad chalked full of buy-low candidates.

Alexander has made his entire career off sharp evaluations and extracting more from a group than meets the eye. He has to do it again this year if Kansas State wants to survive in the Big 12 because this roster does not look the part of a top-50 club nationally.

Projected starting lineup

• G Brandon Rechsteiner
• G Jaden Schutt
• G Dezdrick Lindsay
• F Isaiah Abraham
• C JT Rock

Top bench options: G Andrej Kostic, F Timo Malovec, G Montana Wheeler, F Matt Gilhool

Winner: The middle class of the Big East

There was some bad basketball played in the Big East last year, with numerous rosters that underwhelmed or were dead on arrival.

That changed a bit this spring.

Xavier is bigger and more talented this year after dipping into the portal for four starters with high-major pedigree, including do-everything lead guard Chance Westry. I'd expect Richard Pitino's group to be better.

Providence should be much better after Bryan Hodgson quickly started smashing in the portal with additions like FAU's Devin Vanterpool and San Diego State's Miles Byrd in addition to the snag of Dink Pate from the G-League, who should be an All-Big East hooper next season. Hodgson has built an old team that can go toe-to-toe with anybody in the league.

Marquette? Yeah, it's going to be way, way better after a frustrating 12-20 season. Shaka Smart is a shrewed portal evaluator when he wants to be, and he proved that yet again with coups like St. Thomas transfer guard Nolan Minessale and Louisville transfer big man Sananda Fru. Those additions are real-deal, floor-raisers, plus finding a way to keep dynamic point guard Nigel James Jr. away from the portal poachers should have Marquette much, much better.

How about the DeHaul at DePaul? Chris Holtmann retained veteran point guard Layden Blocker and intriguing sophomore wing Kruz McClure and went to work in the portal with a host of real-deal additions. Arizona State transfer guard Noah Meeusen can hoop. Tulsa transfer Ade Popoola is one of the top 3-and-D prospects in the portal. Wofford's Kahmare Holmes and UT Rio Grande Valley's Koree Cotton are analytical darlings. Fresno State 7-footer Wilson Jacques is an influx of high-major size. But the major coup is San Diego State's Magoon Gwath, who was the creme de la creme in the portal last year. Gwath seemed ticketed to Kentucky last year before returning to San Diego State at the last second. Now, he's at DePaul, looking to stay healthy and put it all together. If healthy, Gwath is an NBA prospect with tools that you can't teach. The shot-blocking and floor-stretching 7-footer is one of the most talented players DePaul has had in a minute.

I don't love Villanova's offseason -- losing point guard Acaden Lewis is crippling -- but Kevin Willard's group has talent, and he's a floor-raising coach. Nova will be competitive. Creighton retained five key stalwarts (Jackson McAndrew, Jasen Green, Hudson Greer, Austin Swartz and Isaac Traudt). The Bluejays should be better in Alan Huss' first year after landing four ready-to-play transfers, including South Florida sniper Wes Enis and veteran SDSU guard BJ Davis.

UConn and St. John's are going to be UConn and St. John's again, especially after the sterling moves by both Dan Hurley and Rick Pitino, but the middle of the Big East looks far less mushy after a strong spring.

Quick hitters (shouts to the retainers!)

• New Mexico kept star guard Jake Hall from the portal poachers and landed stud UC San Diego transfer Hudson Mayes. Excellent work, Eric Olen.
• Wyoming kept prized freshman Naz Meyer. Hat tip, Sundance Wicks.
• Saint Louis kept nine players from a Round of 32 squad. Trey Green is a handful, Quentin Jones is a beast, Kellen Thames will dunk all over you (just ask Aday Mara), Amari McCottry is a dude, Ishan Sharma shreds nets for fun and Colorado transfer Alon Michaeli is a shrewd evaluation. The Billikens aren't going anywhere.
• Oregon State is on absolute fire under new coach Justin Joyner. The Beavers retained Josiah Lake, who averaged over 13 points per game, and added an influx of real-deal talent. San Francisco transfer Legend Smiley is a 42% 3-point shooter, Daniel Freitag can really score and there's loads of size on the wing and the frontcourt with Jackson Rasmussen (Idaho), DeShawn Gory (Fresno State), Dennis Evans (Grand Canyon) and Xavion Staton (BYU). Joyner's group will be instantly competitive in the new-look Pac-12. Hire studs and get out of the way.