College basketball transfer portal winners and losers: Florida on the rise, Kansas in precarious situation

Illinois is plugging and chugging with the addition of Stefan Vaaks, another European player, to its roster for next season. (Ishika Samant/Getty Images)

(Ishika Samant via Getty Images)

WINNER: IILLINOIS

Only weeks after making the Final Four for the first time in 21 years, Illinois has solidified itself as a leading threat to return. The Illini retained five of their top eight players from last season and added some key backcourt weapons to help make up for stud freshman Keaton Wagler leaving early for the NBA Draft.

Rebounding and rim protection should again be strengths for Illinois thanks to the return of David Mirkovic and the Ivisic brothers. Jake Davis is a steady perimeter shooter and defender, while Andrej Stojakovic’s slashing ability meshes perfectly amid a lineup full of skilled perimeter snipers.

The big addition via the portal was Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks, a 6-foot-7 point guard from Estonia with positional size and a proven ability to create via the pick and roll. He’ll be surrounded by much of the same talent that Wagler was when he ascended from unheralded recruit to soon-to-be lottery pick. That would seem to be an opportune setup for both Vaaks and the Illini.

WINNER: TEXAS

It’s easy to see why Sean Miller ditched Xavier to take the Texas job last spring. The resources available to him at Texas have allowed him to go on a shopping spree in the transfer portal and build a powerhouse team.

The optimism at Texas starts with the retention of Lithuanian center Matas Vokietaitis, whose development fueled his team’s surprise run from the First Four to the Sweet 16 last month. Vokietaitis averaged 18.3 points and 11 rebounds in the Longhorns’ three NCAA tournament victories while also altering shots around the rim.

Surrounding Vokietaitis are five portal splashes, headlined by TCU transfer David Punch. He is a dependable interior scorer and game-changing defender who averaged 14.1 points and 6.8 rebounds for the Horned Frogs. Colorado transfer point guard Isaiah Johnson provides scoring and playmaking off the dribble, wings Elyjah Freeman (Auburn) and Amari Evans (Tennessee) add positional size, length and defensive upside and former Saint Mary’s star Mikey Lewis offers much-needed floor spacing and secondary shot creation.

And, oh yeah, let’s not forget about Texas’ heralded freshman class led by 6-foot-5 McDonald’s All-American guard Austin Goosby.

Texas will be elite defensively. The Longhorns will be huge. If the newcomers mesh seamlessly and there’s enough shooting on this roster, this team has national title upside.

Jon Scheyer continues to reload, keeping Duke as a title contender, just as it always was under Mike Krzyzewski. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)

(Scott Taetsch via Getty Images)

WINNER: DUKE

At a time when other successors to hall-of-fame coaches have failed to live up to the standards of their predecessors, Duke’s Jon Scheyer has done exactly the opposite. He’s winning even more than Mike Krzyzewski was at the end of his tenure in Durham.

The roster that Scheyer has assembled for next season again looks top-five caliber despite the departure of national player of the year Cameron Boozer, high-scoring guard Isaiah Evans and defensive standout Maliq Brown. Scheyer is bringing back a handful of rotation players, adding two key transfers and welcoming another decorated freshman class.

The retention of point guard Cayden Boozer, combo guard Caleb Foster and interior defender Patrick Nbonga should ensure that Duke isn’t as freshman-heavy next season. Long, athletic wing Dame Sarr will also bring his smothering defense and developing offense back to Durham, barring a surprise declaration for the NBA Draft.

That group was missing a go-to scorer until Scheyer added Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell via the portal. Blackwell averaged 19.1 points per game last season and blossomed into an elite high-volume shooter, lethal both off the catch and off the bounce. Scheyer also nabbed Belmont interior scorer and defensive menace Drew Scharnowski to be part of Duke’s frontcourt rotation.

Throw in a freshman class that includes three of the nation’s top 14 prospects, and it’s safe to say that Scheyer’s biggest challenge might be keeping everyone on this roster satisfied with their playing time. The previous two seasons, talent-laden Duke teams have blown double-digit second-half leads in the NCAA tournament. This year’s roster appears strong enough to again give Scheyer a shot to win his first national title.

WINNER: LOUISVILLE

With only one rotation player returning from last season’s NCAA tournament team, Louisville coach Pat Kelsey needed to replenish his roster via the transfer portal. Armed with a massive war chest, Kelsey has aggressively pursued proven high-major starters who were at the top of many transfer rankings.

Louisville’s first big additions were Flory Bidunga, the top center in the portal, and Jackson Shelstad, one of the top point guards. Bidunga is a defensive anchor in the paint who also provides efficient scoring on an array of dunks, put-backs and close-range shots. Injuries limited Shelstad to just 12 games last season, but he still managed to average more than 15 points and nearly 5 assists.

Karter Knox is a long, athletic former five-star wing who began his career at Kentucky. Iowa transfer Alvaro Folgueiras is a high-level stretch forward who should fit seamlessly alongside Bidunga. Six-foot-4 guard Adrian Wooley, Louisville’s lone key returner, should fill out the starting five and is a candidate for a breakout season in his second year since transferring to the Cardinals.

There’s still work left to be done here to find a few more rotation players, but what Kelsey has achieved already has been impressive. This is a roster that could contend in the ACC and advance deeper in the NCAA tournament than his previous two teams have.

Other winners: Tennessee, Indiana, UConn, Providence, Miami, Oregon State

Mark Pope is still looking for players in the transfer portal to bolster his 2026-27 Kentucky basketball roster. (Brian Simms/Lexington Herald-Leader/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

(Lexington Herald-Leader via Getty Images)

LOSER: KENTUCKY

If this is Mark Pope’s last chance to prove he’s the right coach to lead Kentucky, it’s not off to an encouraging start. Not only did Pope only manage to retain a couple of rotation players from last season’s underwhelming 22-win NCAA tournament team, he also has missed on a series of top targets in the transfer portal.

Pope hoped to retain promising shooting guard Collin Chandler. The elite shooter instead accepted a big-money offer to return home and play for BYU.

Pope took aim at landing proven point guard Robert Wright out of the portal. Wright appeared to use Kentucky’s interest as leverage to squeeze more money out of BYU.

All signs seemed to be pointing toward Pope landing high-scoring Syracuse transfer Donnie Freeman. Then at the last second Rick Pitino swooped in and nabbed Freeman at the expense of Pope, his former player and team captain.

In between all that, Pope did manage to land a pair of talented but ball-dominant transfer guards in Zoom Diallo (Washington) and Alex Wilkins (Furman). They’ll be part of Kentucky’s 2026-27 core along with a pair of returners, 7-foot shot blocker and interior scorer Malachi Moreno and long, athletic wing Cam Williams.

Still, that quartet is not enough to propel Kentucky into title contention. Not nearly, in fact. The Wildcats need more star power, more depth, more shooting, more everything.

Maybe Pope pulls a rabbit out of his hat and pries Tyran Stokes, the top player in the 2026 high school class, away from Kansas. Maybe Pope lands 1 or 2 of the last remaining elite players in the portal. Maybe he finds a couple of impactful young overseas players eager to come stateside in return for big NIL payouts.

In other words, there are still plenty of ways for Pope to salvage this, but he’s undeniably in a worse-than-expected spot a few weeks into the offseason.

LOSER: KANSAS

So much for Bill Self postponing retirement helping Kansas retain its top talent.

The Jayhawks waved goodbye to last season’s six leading scorers, the worst gut punch coming from Missouri-bound Bryson Tiller trading sides in the Border War. Promising but unproven guard Kohl Rosario is the only returner who logged more than 5 minutes per game.

Where that leaves Kansas is pinning its hopes on landing an elite freshman class, headlined by the explosively athletic Stokes, a 6-foot-7 swingman with the wingspan of a big man but the playmaking skills of a guard. Kansas remains the favorite to land Stokes over Kentucky and Oregon, but the top player in the freshman class has dragged his recruitment into late April in search of more money and roster clarity.

If Stokes signs with Kansas, he’d be the centerpiece of a roster that would include four other top 100 freshmen, including five-star point guard Tay Kinney. Rosario would be a projected starter, as would transfer Keanu Dawes of Utah. Toledo point guard LeRoy Blyden Jr. is insurance in case Kinney isn’t ready to run the show right away. The Jayhawks are still trying to land a starting center and perhaps another scorer on the wing.

If Stokes were to sign elsewhere … gulp.

It’s a precarious position to be in for a Kansas program that last advanced beyond the NCAA tournament’s round of 32 way back in 2022.

LOSER: NOTRE DAME

High-majors who do not have enough resources are going to struggle to retain their top talent just as much as teams from mid-major leagues. Case in point: Notre Dame, which failed to retain any of its top three scorers, each of whom had eligibility remaining.

Indiana swiped Markus Burton. Clemson landed Cole Certa. And, in the biggest gut punch of all, rising star and former McDonald’s All-American Jalen Haralson hit the portal and chose Tennessee over North Carolina and Ohio State.

Where that left Notre Dame coach Micah Shrewsberry was having to seek out replacements on a budget. Former Colgate and Gonzaga guard Braeden Smith will help, as will reigning Big South player of the year Logan Duncomb and former Penn sniper Ethan Roberts, but the incoming talent doesn’t match what Notre Dame lost.

LOSER: SETON HALL

It’s a similar story at Seton Hall, which has repeatedly tried to compete in the Big East with a budget that’s a fraction of what its league rivals are working with. Shaheen Holloway managed to retain only one rotation player, sophomore guard Trey Parker, who averaged a whopping 4.3 points per game last season.

Holloway worked miracles last season, winning 21 games on a shoestring budget and coming close to taking the Pirates to the NCAA tournament. He’ll have to hope to do similar this year with a transfer class headlined by guards Simeon Wilcher (Texas), Del Jones (Radford) and Kareem Thomas (Dartmouth).

Other losers: Wake Forest, Santa Clara, Oregon, Kansas State