College Football Best Bets and Transfer Portal Buy, Sell, or Hold: Brendan Sorsby Shows Heisman Value

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Earlier this week, I broke down the college football coaching changes that will have the most impact on the 2026 season. Today,  I'm switching gears to look at the transfer portal players and classes that will have the most impact.

Here are two programs whose transfer portals have me buying stock in their season, two teams that I'm selling, one to wait on — and my college football best bets for each school this year.

College football transfer portal best bets

College football transfer portal teams I'm buying

BUY: Texas Tech QB Brendan Sorsby (from Cincinnati)

Brendan Sorsby is coming off a solid season, where he posted a 27:5 TD-to-INT ratio while also running for 580 yards and 9 scores. He finished No. 11 in QBR and would have received more recognition had he not played on a 7-5 Cincinnati team.

Now, Sorsby transfers to the defending Big 12 champions, Texas Tech, and will be surrounded by more talent. I have three guidelines when it comes to betting the Heisman in the preseason:

• First, the Heisman is typically won by a quarterback (13 of the last 16 winners).
• Second, it’s okay to bet a long shot, as 12 of the last 16 winners have had 20/1 or longer odds in the preseason.
• Finally, the player has to be on a playoff contender. The last 16 Heisman winners have been on teams that have won an average of 10.6 games in the regular season (Texas Tech’s current win total is 11.5).

Sorsby qualifies for all of these guidelines.

Best Bet: Brendan Sorsby to win the Heisman (+20000 at FanDuel)

Buy: UCLA transfer class

I talked about how I’m buying new head coach Bob Chesney at UCLA on Tuesday. A significant reason for that optimism is UCLA’s underrated transfer portal class.

The class was only ranked No. 33 by 247 Sports, but I’m big on experience — and the Bruins welcomed in 12 transfers who were full-time starters at the FBS level last season. That ranks in the Top 10 in the country.

In addition, UCLA brings in eight transfers who were full-time starters at James Madison last year and will have familiarity with Chesney’s systems and schemes — another underrated advantage. Keep an eye on RB Wayne Knight, who ran for 1,373 yards last season at JMU, and DE Sahmir West, who led the Dukes with 14.5 TFL’s.

Best Bet: UCLA Over 5.5 wins (-145 at bet365)

College football transfer portal teams I'm selling

Sell: LSU QB Sam Leavitt (from Arizona State)

According to On3, three of the top four transfer players went to LSU, led by quarterback Sam Leavitt, who was the top overall transfer player.

Leavitt led Arizona State to the Big 12 Championship in 2024 (24:6 TD-to-INT ratio), and was off to a solid start last year before a right foot injury ended his season early. He underwent surgery again this spring to remove the pins from his initial procedure and has missed most of the spring.

Can Leavitt hit the ground running in the summer with a completely new team, offense, and coach? Will he be as mobile as the last two years, when he rushed for 749 yards and 10 TDs? I have my doubts.

Reading the tea leaves, LSU also brought in highly-touted transfer QB Husan Longstreet from USC and an experienced FCS QB in Landon Clark as insurance policies. I’m definitely not buying Leavitt as the most impactful transfer this season — and I’m not buying LSU as a playoff team in 2026.

Best Bet: LSU to miss the CFB Playoff (-195 at FanDuel).

Sell:  Baylor QB DJ Lagway (from Florida)

It’s safe to say that DJ Lagway has not lived up to his 5-star billing coming out of high school.

In his two years as a starter at Florida, Lagway completed only 62% of his passes with a mediocre 28:23 TD-to-INT ratio. He’s also been injury-prone, missing several games with multiple injuries dating back to high school.

Now, he transfers to a Baylor team that has head coach Dave Aranda in the hottest seat in the country. The Bears return only one starter on offense and will be overly reliant on a bunch of transfers from different schools coming together as quickly as possible. Even if Lagway stays healthy and improves his decision-making, he has less talent around him than in the past couple of seasons.

Best Bet: Baylor Under 6.5 Wins (-105 at bet365)

Hold: Indiana QB Josh Hoover (from TCU)

Josh Hoover has been in the news recently, with his former TCU head coach Sonny Dykes criticizing his turnovers. His new head coach, Curt Cignetti, came to his defense, saying, "When Josh got here, he met his two new best friends: Great defense and a really good run game. And he was never the same after that."

I tend to agree with Cignetti, who has had five different quarterbacks earn 1st or 2nd-team all-conference honors in his last five seasons. Remember: Fernando Mendoza was completing 66% of his passes — with a 30:16 TD-to-INT ratio — in his two years at California before transferring to Indiana.

Hoover’s numbers are similar at 66% and a 56:24 ratio. I’m expecting Hoover to have the best season of his career this year and Indiana to again contend for a National Title. This would be a buy, but Indiana is already one of the favorites to win the CFP National Championship (with a season win total at 10.5), and Hoover is in the Top 10 when it comes to Heisman favorites.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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