Commanders have one of the hardest strength-of-schedules in 2026

With the vast majority of player movement in the books, NFL teams are turning their attention toward the upcoming season. Rookie minicamps are underway, or, in the Washington Commanders' case, happening this weekend; OTAs are two weeks out; and mandatory minicamps are in about six weeks. In less than 10 days, we'll have the entire 2026 NFL schedule and can begin assessing possible outcomes for the season.

While we don't have the full schedule yet, we do know each team's 2026 opponents. Warren Sharp has used that information, combined with the players' movement over the last few months, to create an early strength-of-schedule prediction for every team.

In the graphic, you can see that the Commanders' strength-of-schedule ranks on the side of being more difficult. If you look at the article, you will find that Sharp says the Commanders have the 25th easiest (or 7th hardest) schedule in 2026. He also predicts the Commanders will win 7.5 games this season.

In 2025, the Commanders' schedule ranked near the middle of the league with regard to difficulty. This season, the Commanders have a more difficult battle to fight.

The thing is, predicting win totals without knowing a team's full schedule is like roulette. You never know where that ball is going to land. For example, if the Commanders host division rivals the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants in back-to-back weeks and then have to fly out west to face the San Francisco 49ers, that would be more difficult than hosting the Atlanta Falcons, followed by facing the Tennessee Titans in Nashville. Those two scenarios are not created equal. Plus, not all of the international series games have been announced.

So, take this with a little bit of a grain of salt. Looking at the Commanders' home and away opponents, it's easy to see that their schedule is going to be difficult. It is not easy, however, to determine if they will win a game based solely on this information.