The History of this Series

For the past seven years, I have believed that I could piece together the puzzle that was the Indianapolis Colts 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024. and 2025 draft plans. In each of the past seven years, I’ve invested a lot of time and effort sifting through the clues to find possible answers to the question: what will the Indianapolis Colts do in the draft?

A question that I found some success in answering a year ago, which was a much needed bounce back from my complete whiff in 2024. Prior to 2024, however, I was on quite a run.

Both 2022 and 2023 were banner years for this series. In 2023 I hit on four picks. Correctly naming Anthony Richardson, Juju Brents, Darius Rush and Daniel Scott. In 2022 I was able to predict four of the first five picks, correctly naming Jelani Woods, Alec Pierce, Bernhard Raimann and Eric Johnson. I also listed UDFA signing Ryan Van Demark. I did name both Marcel Dabo and Dallis Flowers in the article as special teamers the Colts might be interested in- but I won’t give myself too much credit for those two, as they failed to make my final list of 14 names, so they don’t really count.

In 2021 I missed every single name, zero correct picks. 2020, I hit on Michael Pittman Jr.. And in 2019 I hit on Rock Ya-Sin and Ben Banogu. So from the start of this series I correctly predicted by year; two, one, zero, four, four names again, then zero and two.

What does it mean? I believe it means that the Colts have a fairly predictable process when it comes to the draft, in reality I think most teams likely do but it’s impossible for someone with a busy professional life, who maintains a social calendar, complete with a complex, albeit highly rewarding, full set of familial obligations, to organize, track, research, maintain and update (never mind actually doing anything with) the data of more than one team. And because the NFL draft, in it’s nature, is so unpredictable that even a predictable process can turn in unforeseen results. Leading up to the 2018 NFL draft everyone knew that the Cleveland Browns would be taking a quarterback with the first pick of the draft. Few people believed (until the day/night before the draft) that Baker Mayfield would be their pick. Mock drafts slotted a lot of other quarterbacks that year (Darnold, Allen and even Josh Rosen) into being the Browns signal caller of the future, but the few who slotted Mayfield into that slot were ridiculed for their prediction. So when the Browns selected Mayfield, it created a butterfly effect of sorts for the rest of the draft. Many people believed that Denver (who drafted fifth) would take a quarterback but what if the quarterback they wanted was Baker Mayfield? What if the Jets board had Sam Darnold as QB1 and Josh Allen as QB2? Does that mean that if the Browns would have taken Darnold, the Jets would have taken Josh Allen and the Broncos would have taken Mayfield instead of pass rusher Bradley Chubb? 2018 turned in another surprising pick from the Browns at number four overall, with their selection of cornerback Denzel Ward. Most expected them to draft Chubb and had they done so, does that mean the Broncos would have taken Quenton Nelson? Maybe linebacker Roquan Smith? How would those things have impacted every other teams strategy for the rest of the draft? It’s impossible to know but one single surprise has the potential to ripple in massive, unpredictable ways.

In 2019 we saw an even more surprising selection of edge defender Clelin Ferrell at fourth overall to the Oakland Raiders.

In 2020 the Green Bay Packers traded up to select quarterback Jordan Love. The Seahawks took linebacker Jordyn Brooks (who many believed would be a day two pick) and the Philadelphia Eagles selection of Jalen Hurts at 53.

2021 saw the San Francisco 49ers take Trey Lance third, instead of Mac Jones. Many people believed the Carolina Panthers would take a quarterback and selected cornerback Jaycee Horn with the 9th pick instead.

The next year, the Jaguars picked Travon Walker over Aiden Hutchinson and five defensive players went in the first five picks (the first time that had happened in more than 40 years). A.J. Brown was traded from the Tennessee Titans to the Eagles and Bill Belichick made it clear that his best days as a GM were far gone when he took Cole Strange at 29.

In 2023 the Texans traded back into the top five to pick edge Will Anderson Jr.. Many people expected the Colts to take Will Levis Jr. and few people expected the Atlanta Falcons to use a top 10 pick on running back Bijan Robinson, despite having second year back Tyler Allgeier coming off of a 1,000 yard rookie season.

2024 turned in one of the most shocking top 10 picks that I can remember when the Falcons selected Michael Penix Jr. after having just signed Kirk Cousins to a massive deal in free agency (as it turns out we were right to be shocked, it was an incredibly dumb move at the time and hindsight shows us we were correct to think so). That move coupled with six quarterbacks being picked inside the top 12 and no defensive players being selected until the Colts took Laiatu Latu with the 15th overall pick which probably only happened because the Raiders surprised everyone with their move to take tight end Brock Bowers, despite having taken Michael Mayer at 35th overall the year before.

And a year ago no one should have been surprised that the Chicago Bears took a tight end with the 11th pick, but many were surprised they took Colston Loveland over Tyler Warren, which freed the Colts to sprint to the podium with their card (and despite what weird people on the internet will tell you, so far it looks like both teams made the right decision for them). The Jaguars made a seemingly insane trade to move up to number two overall to take Travis Hunter. And I understand why they did it. I don’t go to many college games in person. Maybe one every few years. But I sought out tickets to watch Colorado and Travis Hunter when they played the Kansas Jayhawks in Arrowhead Stadium (30 minutes from my house), I desperately wanted to see him play, live. The more surprising part was that the Browns made the move for what looked like the most exciting two-way prospect potentially since Deion Sanders. The Falcons make this list again by trading their 2026 first rounder to move back into the draft to take edge James Pierce Jr. (who has since been charged with three felonies and a misdemeanor for various domestic violence allegations) and just a year later the LA Rams will happily use the 13th overall pick they got from Atlanta.

And those things, those surprises and the things that ripple off of them more than anything else, is what makes predicting the Colts draft so difficult each and every year. Far more than predicting what positions the team will take, what types of players they desire and the priority they place on filling each position.

Last season this is what I said about the two players that were hits from THE List:

Tyler Warren Penn State- N/A RAS (did not test due to being good enough not to)- Just click on that link. It’s Lance Zierlein’s scouting report for Warren. It reads like Steichen talking about his ideal tight end up above. Go find any scouting report you want from any reputable person who grades players year in and year out and you’ll likely find the same. Look, I get it. Everyone is tired of seeing mock draft after mock draft list Tyler Warren to the Colts. But rarely is there so obvious a player who so perfectly fits what a team needs, roughly in the area of the draft that it could all come together. My question isn’t “would the Colts draft Tyler Warren if given the opportunity” it’s “will they have the opportunity” and that’s a tough question to answer. He isn’t the prospect that Brock Bowers was a year ago, but 31 teams watched Bowers break records and 12 of those teams select before Indy this year. The Colts have a unicorn shaped hole in their offense and Warren is a unicorn.

Jalen Travis Iowa State– 9.08 RAS Travis is a name to know for the Colts for a few reasons. First, Chris Ballard seems to have a thing for massive offensive linemen and Travis clocks in at nearly 6’8” 340 pounds. The last time Ballard drafted a prospect built in a similar way was 2017 and Zach Banner never panned out for Indy. The difference between Banner and Travis is that Banner’s RAS score was an astounding 1.45 with Travis, Ballard, has the opportunity to draft a massive human who is also a very good relative athlete. If you were to slide him in to guard Travis’ RAS jumps to 9.43. He started his college career at Princeton before transferring to Iowa State as a fifth year senior (I presume as a graduate transfer). He also won the 2024 Coach Wooden Citizenship Cup, an award that athletes from across all sports were nominated for. Interestingly his cousin is former Colts tight end Ross Travis, whom Chris Ballard brought to Indy from the Kansas City Chiefs in 2017. He is absolutely massive, has ties to Ballard, an RAS score over 9, very smart, very good person by all accounts. Look, I don’t know where he fits on the 2025 Indianapolis Colts, I just know there are a lot of arrows pointing at this guy.

I can’t take too much credit for Warren, it was such an obvious pick and I really didn’t think he would be on the board when Indy selected. Jalen Travis, however, was about as firm as a hit as you’ll find. He ticked off every metric the Colts desire and was available in the fourth round, right about the time I believed Indy would be looking to find offensive line depth.

I also want to point out what I said about Wyett Ekler in last years article:

Wyett Ekeler, Safety, Wyoming- 8.5 RAS The brother of UDFA legend Austin Ekeler, Wyett is unlikely to be drafted, but this kid is going to be in someone’s camp. If not for his size 5’11” 199 pounds, his RAS score would have been well over 9, His nearly 42” vertical, almost 11’ broad jump and 6.8 second 3-cone are wild. Ekeler might not be a natural fit at safety but could potentially find a role coming downhill as a star defender eventually. But he will be able to help someone on teams from day one. In a draft that lacks star power, finding starters and contributors becomes the name of the game and with those athletic traits it would probably be a good idea for some team to nab him in the seventh so they don’t miss out on this kid.

The Colts didn’t draft Ekeler (or sign him as a UDFA post draft) but go ahead and click on this link. I can’t count it in any real way, but it’s hard to say I wasn’t right about the Colts likely having some level of interest in this kid.

In the history of this series I’ve gotten a lot of things right, but I’ve still missed on more than I’ve hit. A season ago I found some success but I need to improve. I’ll probably never get back to the success I had in ‘22 and ‘23 and that’s alright.

No matter what happens I’m still proud of that run.

But there’s still hope I can make it back.

I had a bit of success a season ago, but it wasn’t enough. And we can all laugh when I inevitably fail to get a single name right and I go right back to my 2024 ways. But I believe that this series has absolutely hit on something more than just luck. I still believe the clues are out there and I still believe I can find them.

But you don’t have to believe me. Let me show you, again.

What Went Wrong

2025 was, ultimately, a good year for this series. A hit is a hit, though predicting Tyler Warren was almost like predicting that I’ll wake up tomorrow and my grass will still be green. But my entire goal is to give you names on THE List that will be Indianapolis Colts come training camp and Tyler Warren counts all the same. Jalen Travis, on the other hand. That was a solid hit. I dug through dozens of offensive line prospects and I found a guy that I thought would be a Ballard pick. Turns out, I was right but the Colts made 8 picks last season and I only gave you two guys. That’s a 25% hit rate. The only way to do better is to figure out where I went wrong.

They didn’t prioritize linebacker.

Last year at the Combine, Chris Ballard was seemingly asked 500 questions about the quarterback competition. Meanwhile he was asked, what felt like, a throwaway question at the end of that press conference about a position that lost a starter and didn’t fill it in any meaningful way in free agency. Ultimately, I heard what I wanted to hear.

Pay attention to the very first words he said: “It’s um, I mean I know ya’ll think the sky (is falling) it’s a position we’ve been pretty good drafting and developing… we drafted JC that we thinks gonna be really good” he then went on to list all of the success they’ve had growing players from special teams contributors to starters at the position and it’s tough to argue with what he’s saying. He’s right, they’ve done a great job finding guys who grow into starting caliber linebackers (of varying quality). What I didn’t want to hear was that they were counting on a late day three converted safety to play a major role on the defense, and that’s exactly what he was saying here. While 2024 was the infamous “we like our guys” offseason, 2025 was undoubtedly the “we like our linebackers” season, which worked exactly as well as the “we like our guys” season. Ballard did a very good job adding competition last season in the secondary and it’s tough to say he didn’t add a lot to the defensive line (with less success, but the effort was there). But for a guy who wanted to add competition all over the roster, he failed to do so at linebacker. But he did say they would look to add depth and competition. I just mistakenly believed he would do so much earlier than he did.

Now, it is possible they were going to add someone earlier than Hunter Wholer (who was drafted as a linebacker) in the 7th and it just didn’t work out. Looking at the draft in the second round there’s no way they expected Carson Schwesinger or Jihad Campbell to be available at 45 and they obviously valued Tuimoloau more than Demetrius Knight who went 49th to the Cincinnati Bengals. In the third round the 49ers took Nick Martin five picks before Indy selected CB Justin Walley, but Martin (all 5’11” 221 pounds of him, complete with 31” arms) likely wasn’t very high on their board and Martin was the only ‘backer taken in the third round. The fourth round is where it gets interesting. The Colts originally had the 117th pick. Linebackers went with the 107th pick: Jack Kiser to Jacksonville, the 112th pick: Danny Stutsman to New Orleans and the 115th pick: Cody Simon to Arizona.

All three of those players are 6’2”or taller and weigh 230+. All of them have RAS scores of 8.35 or higher. Kiser was the only player who did the broad jump and the Colts seemingly have a 10’ threshold on the broad jump and Kiser’s was only 909. Coupled with his just over 30” arms, the Colts may have liked him but it’s entirely possible he wasn’t that high on their board. Stutsman tested far more athletically than he looked on tape. He looked like a downfield run stopper but his 4.52 second 40 yard dash time put that into question. But if they were interested in any of these players I think it was likely Cody Simon, and not just because he went two picks before they were scheduled to be on the clock. Simon was noted as being better (though still not great) in man coverage (valuable in Lou Anarumo’s system) and showed enough on tape to think he could improve in space over time. He put things on tape that Stutsman never did. Simon also racked up a host of awards for the national champion Ohio State Buckeyes as well as being a team captain.

Ultimately we’ll never know. It’s likely I overestimated how many players there were available that the Colts would view as early difference makers. It’s possible that the Colts did plan to add competition and depth earlier than they did. And it’s interesting the only trade they made in the draft came two picks after the potential best fit (at that point in the draft) was taken.

No matter what, I was wrong.

I listened to Shane Steichen

At the 2025 Annual League Meeting, Shane Steichen was asked about his defensive line. He mentioned that he felt good about the edges. So, I (like a moron) crossed edge off of my list- not completely but I wasn’t serious in taking a look at day two prospects.

All things considered the team was pretty set at edge. So when Steichen gave this answer it was all I needed to look the other way. What seems likely is that the front office was looking ahead to 2026 and after doing some math, they realized that Kwity Paye was unlikely to re-sign in Indy. So taking a replacement a year early isn’t the worst idea. Especially at a position that can always use fresh players to help with a rotation. That’s not exactly what they got out of Tuimoloau’s rookie season, but I understand if this was the thought process.

Had I had my eye on defensive ends (instead of linebackers), Tuimoloau is likely someone I would have gravitated toward. His 9.33 RAS, coupled with his nearly 34” arms would have gotten my attention and the scouting report looking a lot like a Kwity Paye clone, likely would have gotten him on my list.

This year I’ll be looking for potential future starters on day two.

They drafted a running back

This was my Mostly Unsubstantiated Theory, but I didn’t think they would prioritize running back because they signed Khalil Herbert in free agency. I believed Herbert was the sort of veteran coming off of a down year the team would feel good about coming off the bench to give Jonathan Taylor the occasional breather. Instead Herbert was cut after training camp and never appeared in a game for the Colts. Instead Indy drafted DJ Giddens in the fifth round. Giddens had a solid showing early on in his rookie season but ended up as a healthy scratch more often than not, likely due to his lack of special teams ability and liability in pass protection.

I would tell you that I’ll make my MUT more carefully this year but I won’t. That’s the whole point of the MUT. That said because it’s Mostly Unsubstantiated, I’ll likely do a better job of treating it as such once I get to THE List, this year.

So let’s get into the process.

How do they stack their board and what does “Best Player Available” mean?

Free agency and roster holes have always been very predictive of what positions Chris Ballard will look to draft. If you had created a checklist of the Colts biggest needs entering each draft since 2018, you would magically find that checklist filled in, almost always in order, by the players the Colts drafted. 2024 departed from this for the reasons listed above, but Ballard talked at his end of season press conference about doing more of the things they did in the past, alluding to having made mistakes in 2024.

It’s wild to me when I see people argue that Chris Ballard simply drafts the best player available. I think that term “best player available” means something very different to most, than it does to him. If you ask Chris Ballard if he drafts the “best player available” he’ll give you one of a couple different answers (he literally has). What “best player available” actually means, is complicated.

But the long and short of it is this: They don’t just stack their board vertically. They don’t just number their prospects 1-500 like all of the “draft experts” do. They don’t do it like I do. They grade the players and stack their board across all positions by round, too.

Why would they stack them by round?

Lets say the team has a draftable grade on 12 linebackers this year (I don’t know the actual realistic number I just pulled that one out of the air). Let’s say they have a first round grade on two of them. Now lets say they have a second round grade on two of them and a third round grade on three of them. The other five are sprinkled in on day three.

Now lets say the team has a draftable grade on six safeties. Let’s say they have none graded out as a first rounders, two are graded as second rounders, one graded out as a third rounder and the other three sprinkled in on day three with varying grades.

In this scenario the team has a need at both linebacker and safety. If using a vertical board the two linebackers with the first round grade would be higher on the board than any of the safeties. But if all of them made it to the Colts pick and the team takes the linebacker then the chances of completely missing out on one of the six draftable safeties goes up, significantly. Meaning that stacking the board horizontally allows teams to visually manage priority and risk much more effectively.

By organizing the board horizontally by position and round it allows teams to track the depth of the draft as well as the quality of the players that are currently being taken. Here is an example from Blogging the Boys back in 2013:

Back in 2013 this exact scenario played out for the Dallas Cowboys as they only had draftable grades on three centers. At the time the Cowboys took heat for trading back in the first round, passing on players with higher consensus grades to take center Travis Fredrick. It turns out the Cowboys actually did have higher grades on several players who were on the board with their initial pick but they did not want to miss out on one of the only draftable centers available. History looks favorably on this move. This story was made possible by the now defunct Inside the Pylon. RIP to Inside the Pylon- a website that fueled my football knowledge for the better part of a decade.

The Colts also compare draftable prospects against players currently on their own team. Why would they stack draftable prospects against guys currently on the roster?

Let’s say it’s the fourth round and the Colts are on the clock. They look up at their board and the highest rated player on their board is a cornerback. They believe he will compete for the third or fourth outside corner position in training camp and contribute right away on special teams. Their second highest rated player is a tight end prospect. They believe he will be the fourth tight end on the roster behind Warren, Mo Alie-Cox and Drew Ogletree. Their third highest rated player is a running back. They believe he will be RB2 behind Jonathan Taylor.

If all three player grades are pretty close (not one of them is projected to be an impact player from day one) what player should they take?

If they draft pure “BPA” they take the cornerback and hope he’s good on special teams. If “best player available” actually means “best player available based on the situation” then you might draft running back given Jonathan Taylor’s injury history and the offenses reliance on running the ball. So “BPA” isn’t always what fans think it is and need is a heavy part of Chris Ballard’s drafting process. Although, Dayo Odeyingbo proves it isn’t absolute. Odeyingbo was likely, truly, the best player available on their board at the time they took him and they took him because they probably believed he was he best player available by a wide margin. He was in a different tier than everyone else. The same can likely be said for Latu in 2024.

To recap: need matters, the depth of the draft matters. If the team’s need is great and the depth of the draft is poor, the team will be more likely to fill the need early if the players there are all graded similarly.

I’m not trying to start any arguments, here, it’s just an observable fact of their process as shown over time.

What Year Is It?

Looking at Chris Ballard’s history as general manager the Colts drafts have had themes, especially in the early rounds.

In 2017 they took defenders with six of their eight picks.

In 2018 with a new head coach they took six players on offense and five on defense.

In 2019 they took seven guys on defense and three on offense.

In 2020 they went with five offensive players and four defenders (three defenders coming in the sixth round).

In 2021 they went with three defenders and four offensive players (three offensive players coming in rounds six and seven).

In 2022 they took four players on offense and four players on defense (two defenders coming in the sixth and seventh round).

In 2023 they took six players on offense and six on defense (three of the first four coming on offense. Only one defender was selected before day three.)

In 2024 they took four offensive players and five on defense (with four defenders coming in rounds five, six and seven.

In 2025 they took four offensive players and four guys on defense (three of the four offensive players coming on day three.

The numbers themselves might not stand out but aside from 2018 and 2023 the Colts, under Chris Ballard, have alternated priority on offense and defense early in each draft. In 2023 they should have been in line to draft defense early and often. But both times Chris Ballard has gone into a draft with a new head coach his draft strategy has differed. I want to focus in more so than I have on this aspect than I have in years past, so let’s just take a look at the first three rounds by year:

2017- three out of three picks (100%) went to the defense (one pick in each round)

2018*- three out of five picks went to the defense (Quenton Nelson at sixth overall and then four second round picks)

2019- three out of four picks (75%) went to the defense (three second rounders and one third)

2020- two out of three picks (66%) went to the offense (two second rounders and one third)

2021- two out of three picks (66%) went to the defense (one pick in each round)

2022- three out of four picks (75%) went to the offense (one second rounder and three thirds)

2023*- two out of three picks went to the offense (one in each round)

2024- two out of three picks (66%) went to the offense (one in each round)

2025- two out of the three picks (66%) went to the defense (one in each round)

the * denotes a year with a new head coach and also the only times Ballard has drafted inside the top 10

If this is a coincidence, it’s truly an amazing one. The only times Ballard has strayed from it are in ‘18 and ‘23 with the aforementioned circumstances surrounding those years and then the following year he falls right back into the pattern like nothing changed.

When the name of the game is making draft predictions, it seems silly to ignore this. The thing I’m less sure of are the drafts in ‘19 and ‘22. In each of those years the Colts had four premium picks and both times they kept the offense/defense ratio above 50% for the correct side of the ball for that year’s pattern. That said, I’m not entirely sure they would always stick to that. If they were to trade down at some point this year and pick up an extra day two pick, it wouldn’t be that surprising to see them even the ratio out and go two offense and two defense. We only have two data points (sans ‘18 which is unique for other reasons) so it’s hard to make a more definitive statement in years with more than three picks in those first three rounds. For years with only three picks, it seems obvious to point out, two of them will be on the “correct” side of the ball for that years pattern.

One thing that I’m just now realizing, when looking at these numbers (and I can’t believe I didn’t recognize it before year eight) is that when they go heavy on one side of the ball early, they usually go heavy on the other, late. I mean, I realized it (obviously, I wrote about it above) but I didn’t really consider what it meant. You can expect this years late round picks listed on THE List, to fall more in line with the other side of the ball. We’ll see how it goes.

Prediction #1

This is an offensive draft.

Yeah, I get it. I just used a whole lotta words to tell you why I’m making this prediction. But again, the name of this game is making predictions and this is one I think I’ll get right. So I am predicting that at least two of the Colts first three draft picks will be on the offensive side of the ball. It’s just the offenses year to get that infusion of talent.

Where this one gets tricky this year is that Indy only has two premiere (first, second and third round) picks. At present there are at least a handful of teams who draft after the Colts 47th pick, with the kind of draft capital it would take (a late 3rd rounder) for them to move up, while the Colts moved back picking up another top-100 pick in this years draft. But as things progress the number of teams with the ammo is sure to fluctuate. If the Colts want to trade back they need to find a team with both the ammo and desire to move up. Another thing to watch is that at the time of this writing, Anthony Richardson is still on the roster. Teams like the Eagles and Steelers have the kind of capital to make a move for a guy they really want and those teams may want a young backup QB with a lot of untapped potential.

Which brings me to my next prediction.

**Prediction #**2

The Colts will trade back

So there’s this answer and then there’s this answer:

And this

And of the seven or so interviews I’ve watched of Ballard leading up to this draft, he mentions trading back and acquiring more picks in most of them. Which makes sense. Chris Ballard had built a team full of good but not great players. Guys like Zaire Franklin (traded), Michael Pittman Jr. (traded), Kenny Moore (actively being shopped at the time of this writing), and those guys were leaders on a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in half a decade. This offseason is shaping up to be a soft rebuild, they’re jettisoning established starters and team leaders and while they’ve backfilled depth in some places, they haven’t added many starting caliber players in free agency. It’s fair to be skeptical of their plan to add those pieces via the draft (especially without a first round pick) but if the Colts believed it was time to move in a different leadership direction (it was) and that void couldn’t be filled via free agency (tall task), what other choice do they have but to try to fill it in the draft? The best way to potentially fill that void is to throw as many picks at the problem as possible.

Chris Ballard has gone into drafts without a first round pick three times and in each of those drafts he has had at least three, day two picks. In 2021 the team only had first and second round picks due to trading away their third for Carson Wentz – the only time the team has failed to have multiple day two picks. This was also the year Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo both fell into their laps as neither player was expected to be available when Indy selected them. I believe had they not had the opportunity to draft these players they would have worked hard to find a trade partner to add another top 100 pick. I could be wrong about this but the rumor at the time was that in the draft room Ballard had to be talked out of taking Odeyingbo in the first round while Odeyingbo was recovering from a torn Achilles tendon. If that’s true, even if they were sticking and picking in the first, there’s absolutely no way Ballard was passing on Dayo in the second, regardless of how many top-100 picks he did or didn’t have that year.

This year he only has one second rounder and one third rounder. If he isn’t able to move a player for an additional day two pick (he won’t be unless he’s willing to move on from someone like Jonathan Taylor or maybe Deforest Buckner (in my opinion his contract, age and injury status would make this a tough sell for more than a late third at absolute best, I think he’s worth more to the Colts than he would be to any other team) his options for getting another day two pick are slim. His best bet will be a move back from 47. There may be a couple of options to move back from their pick in the third (78) to pick up two late third round picks but those seem like longshots and would likely require additional picks or players to make those moves happen.

Another scenario that I think has real legs is if Indy packages 47 with someone like Moore or Anthony Richardson during the draft to get one of those additional day two picks. The other (very real) possibility is that the Colts move Kenny Moore and Anthony Richardson before the draft for additional picks, but those players would likely net mid to late day three picks at this point.

Another scenario is that the Colts don’t want three day two picks and would be happy picking up additional third, fourth and fifth rounders, instead of targeting a trade back in the second, as Chris Ballard talked about where the strength of this draft falls here:

No matter what happens this prediction is almost sure to be correct given Ballard’s history and his repeated answers leading up to this draft.

Also, this is interesting to note, it doesn’t really fit here, but it doesn’t really fit anywhere else, either. But I still want to include it:

So we know Ballard thinks the strength of this class comes in the third, fourth and fifth rounds and he thinks linebacker, edge, receiver, interior offensive line and safety are deep this year. Interesting.

I wrote almost all of the above before Chris Ballard said this at his annual pre-draft press conference on Monday April 20th:

And this:

I think it’s safe to say the Colts are very open for business.

**Prediction #**3

The Colts will draft Edge help

“We still have work to do” and this:

Both of these interviews took place on the same day, both took place at the Owners Meetings and Ballard has on the same clothes so his talking points are largely the same. In the second video he does confirm that the Colts were in on Trey Hendrickson but that it didn’t work out. In both interviews he said that they like the pieces they’ve added for depth. Those pieces include Arden Key (DE), Michael Clemons (DE), Jerry Tillery (DT) Derrick Nnadi (DT) and Colby Wooden (DT) via the Zaire Franklin trade. On paper the Colts have added an entire defensive line so far this season. Fortunately for us, they view these four players as “depth” players. It seems like they don’t want to go into next season with these four as starters.

In the first interview he mentions “Jaylahn” (J.T. Tuimoloau) by saying “…having Jaylahn back, having Latu, we think, we think Latu is gonna take a whole ‘nother step.” and then you combine that with his belief that they’ve built a good foundation with depth and that they still have some time left, you can easily infer they believe they still need to add another player.

Then he said this at the pre-draft presser:

The important part for this prediction is what he says about J.T. Tuimoloau. Before he said this, I was sure they were hoping to find a starting edge prospect. Now, I’m not as sure.

And now I’m pretty sure they’re not looking for a starter:

At the start of the Josina Anderson clip, she mentions players like A.J. Epinessa, Maxx Crosby and Jadeveon Clowney and she’s absolutely right there are several decent options (likely more than she mentions here) that could be in play for Indy via free agency or trade. With that said, we know unequivocally, Chris Ballard wants to build through the draft. He has also drafted six defensive ends on day two of the NFL draft. He has drafted five wide receivers, four cornerbacks and three offensive linemen on day two as well.

So the Colts have a need at the position but it’s a need for a situational speed rusher, not a starter on the edge. Chris Ballard has taken Edge defenders on day two more than he has any other position, but will the value line up with the need, or will the need elsewhere trump the value?

Prediction #4

The Colts are going to draft offensive line

Chris Ballard drafting OL is a very safe bet.

Chris Ballard wants to win up front.

He’s drafted at least one offensive lineman every year he’s been in Indianapolis. So this isn’t as much about if he’s going to draft help on his front five but when will he do it?

If we are to believe that this is an offensive draft and I do, the Colts will look to the offensive line earlier than most people probably expect. And probably another on day three. Why do I think this?

This is a big part of it:

“…when Daniel got hurt it took away some things we could do from a mobility standpoint which I think effected it but that’s something we’ll dig into.”

The offensive line was good last year but Ballard is right, when Jones went down, teams shut down the run. Some of that was likely due to teams needing to defend against Jones rolling out of the pocket and just in general using his mobility to spread out the defense. Jones ability to move would often pull at least one defender out of the play and made blocking assignments that much easier. So with Jones back, the problem is solved, right?

Not based on this answer.

He starts by saying he’s never going to use injuries as an excuse. So if the team “need(s) to be able to run the ball, when they want to run it” and that means when Jones is playing or not, how can they ensure that happens?

One option is to upgrade the running back position. On a team starting Jonathan Taylor already, it’s almost impossible to upgrade there.

Option two, is to make sure your QB2 can do all of the same things Daniel Jones can do. If Daniel Jones is your unquestioned starter and you have a second QB who can do all of the same things Jones can do, Jones wouldn’t be your unquestioned starter. This probably isn’t realistic.

Option three, upgrade your blocking at tight end. The Colts used a first round pick on Tyler Warren last season, who had a great year taking snaps at multiple positions. His blocking was adequate but will likely improve as time goes on. The team also brought back Mo Allie-Cox and Drew Ogletree to likely fill that blocking role. Both Allie-Cox and Ogletree are good blockers at the position. While this isn’t out of the realm of possibility, I don’t think Chris Ballard was talking about needing better blocking from his TE2-4.

Option four, add to the offensive line. The Colts have to feel good about the play they got from Matt Goncalves and Tanor Bortolini. That said Bortolini was the better player but both men were too often beaten when the Colts wanted to run the ball. Center is generally the more difficult position to play and Bort looks like he might end up being the kind of long-term starter teams search for at the position. Goncalves, on the other hand would seem to have some position flexibility and struggled in his first year at right guard.

Option five is to change your play calling to ensure you’re not using concepts that won’t work as well when that concept was designed to be used with other players in the game.

My bet, is that the answer will be a combination of options four and five. Shane Steichen talked about needing to do a better job making sure they can run it, so when they dug into it like Ballard said they would above, I’m betting they found some things they would like to do schematically. That said Indy will look for someone that can fill the void left by the departure of backup center Danny Pinter. Backup center has always been a priority for Ballard, having filled the position well with Pinter. Now that Danny is gone, he’ll want to have someone ready if Bort has to miss time. Finding someone with position flexibility up front is always valuable and could help the team in a multitude of ways. That said the team also lost Braden Smith to the Houston Texans. Jalen Travis played well a season ago and earned the opportunity to take over at right tackle, vacating the swing tackle spot he previously held. Which means Indy needs to find both a swing tackle and a backup center.

For these reasons I think the Colts will likely double dip at the position and it’s possible versatility will be important.

**Prediction #**5

If the Colts are going to draft a linebacker, it’ll be late.

Well, here it is. My annual linebacker prediction. Here’s why I believe, what I believe, this year:

Combined with this:

This one is important because he mentions Hunter Wohler. Combined with this:

When asked about linebackers playing in coverage, he mentions Wohler playing in that passing down role.

And this is what he said about linebacker in his pre-draft press conference last season:

I already covered how I believe the plan may have been to take a linebacker in the fourth round in 2025 and things just didn’t work out. “We got some young players we really like, so we’ll add some depth and competition hopefully in the draft.” But listen to that first video again. They like Akeem Davis-Gaither. There are free agents they’re still considering. They still believe in Jaylon Carlies. “We’re not afraid to go into this really young. And we feel good about the guys we have, some young players, but also some guys that are out there and plus the draft.”

So Akeem Davis-Gaither is a starter. They have hope for Jaylon Carlies. They believe Hunter Wohler can play for them on passing downs. They re-signed Austin Ajiake. They like some guys that are still free agents. And there are always some options in the draft.

The counter to this is that the Colts jettisoned Zaire Franklin, have not re-signed Germaine Pratt, and got rid of the young guys he said they really liked this time, last year. Are they really planning on replacing them with Akeem Davis-Gaither, Jalon Carlies, Hunter Wohler and Austin Ajiake? I know it doesn’t make sense. It didn’t make sense last year, either. But they did it. So this year, despite my belief that linebacker is a bigger need than defensive end, I don’t think they’re prioritizing linebacker early but I’ll probably have a couple day two prospects make THE List, anyway.

So now that I’ve come to this conclusion, they’ll absolutely trade up to take a linebacker with the 33rd overall pick, just watch. Chris Ballard won’t get my favorite team a division championship nor will he allow me to be right about a linebacker.

Prediction #6

The Colts will draft a receiver and probably early

I don’t have an accompanying clip because at the time of this writing no one has really asked Ballard, Steichen or Carlie Irsay-Gordon a question about the position since the Michael Pittman Jr., trade. I hope this changes during Ballard’s pre-draft press conference but as of now, no evidence exists. EDIT: not much was said outside of Ballard believing the draft was deep at the position. This is a prediction based mostly on logic which means there’s a very real chance I’m going to be completely wrong.

Ultimately, the move off of Pittman was likely the right decision. With a quarterback on a big deal, there’s only so much money to go around and Alec Pierce was the more explosive player with far more upside than Pitt. Ballard did mention, when talking at the Owner’s Meetings, that Pierce and Josh Downs would be expected to take on a bigger role and the team did sign Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to a one year deal. But he isn’t someone, anyone believes will be an impact player. He should make the roster and the team might be comfortable with a combination of Westbrook-Ikhine, Ashton Dulin, Anthony Gould and Laquon Treadwell to fill that WR3 spot, but one thing to consider is that Josh Downs is headed into a contract year.

A season ago Indy opted to pre-fill the defensive end position via the draft and this year, given the hole left by Pittman, Downs’ contract status beyond 2026 unsettled and the fact that this is the year to add to the offensive side of the ball via the draft, now would be a great time to bring someone in with the hopes they could learn and develop into a contributor for 2027 and beyond.

Here’s the part where you complain about the Ad Mitchell trade.

Prediction #7

The Colts will draft a Safety

Like receiver, the safety position hasn’t really been addressed in the media much beyond well wishes for Nick Cross, after leaving for the Commanders. The team has signed Juanyeh Thomas, Jonathan Owens and Nasir Adderley. I believe Owens will be a very good Rodney Thomas replacement on special teams and I think the team has high hopes for what Juanyeh Thomas can do at safety filling the role left by Nick Cross. Adderly has been retired for three years and I don’t see his addition being anything more than taking a flier on a formerly talented player. With that said I think it’s possible they add a player who can fill in behind Cam Bynum more completely and with more upside than Owens and who has played football in the last three years.

The Colts have drafted a day three safety under Chris Ballard in all but 2017, 2018 and 2020. In 2017, they selected Malik Hooker in the first round. In 2020 they drafted Julian Blackmon in the third. So if you’re keeping track at home, Chris Ballard has drafted a safety every year except for 2018. Investment at the position include one first round pick, three day two picks and six day three picks. It’s possible 2026 is the year they skip again given the Adderly, Thomas and Owens signings but they lost a starter who played 98% of the teams defensive snaps over the past two years, I have a hard time believing they only plan to replace him with someone who has missed a total of 14 games in that same span and a career special teamer. But I’ve always believed the same thing about the Linebacker position and yet here we are.

I believe the addition of Thomas will make them more comfortable using a day three pick to bring someone along, having him work into a rotation and grow into the kind of player they hope to have long-term at the position.

Mostly Unsubstantiated Theory

The Colts will draft a Quarterback (again)

So far the only quarterback questions that have been asked have been about Daniel Jones’ Achilles, Anthony Richardson’s trade and if they’re happy with Riley Leonard, all are fair questions. But a season ago we all saw what happened and if both QB1 and QB2 are hurt, Philip Rivers isn’t walking through that door (again). Based on what Ballard has said about Leonard, I don’t think they’ll look to add to the position early. Before I started my research this year, I knew it would be an offensive year and I thought that Quarterback had an outside chance to be a day two pick. After doing the work I no longer believe that, but my gut tells me they’ll want a young, third quarterback on the roster given the Richardson trade feels inevitable.

I still feel this is Mostly Unsubstantiated but Chris Ballard did say this at his pre draft presser:

Now we know he’s at least considering drafting a quarterback at some point this weekend.

Other Things We Know:

• Chris Ballard greatly values college all-star games, like the Senior Bowl.

• The Colts’ version of “Best Player Available” factors in team need:

• According to Ballard character concerns aren’t always a deal-breaker. And he’s tired of anonymous sources leaking “character concerns”. In fact he called it “f****** bull****” when people do it.

• Ballard and his staff obviously value length, placing an emphasis on long-armed defenders.

• Most Colts draft picks since 2020 have had high Relative Athletic Scores. The Colts probably don’t use RAS in their evaluation but it’s impossible to overlook the fact that Colts draft picks (with a few exceptions) have had a high RAS.

• They value high football character. Team captains are held in high regard.

• The Colts have “reached” on players like Darius Leonard and Julian Blackmon on day two of the draft. They don’t care when you think a player should be drafted and will reach to fill a hole if the draft is shallow at the position.

• Ballard wants to take players with high-end traits:

• This year, we can pencil in a lot of draftees with a lot of experience in college:

Casting a Wide Net

I am going to give you a position by position breakdown listing players at each position that, I believe, fit what the Colts might be looking for come draft day, before giving you my definitive list. I’m giving you both lists because frankly, it’s really hard to take 400+ players and whittle them down to the few most likely to fit what the Colts want and then predict who might, possibly, be available when the Colts make their selections. So I’m giving both lists, not as a way to increase my own ability to hit on a name, but it allows for additional analysis of each position that we already know the Colts want to add.

I won’t give myself credit for hitting on the players that don’t make THE List because I am giving you A LOT of names. That said, I’m not just throwing these names out, I have reason to believe each name on this list is there for a good reason.

Defensive End

Before drafting Laiatu Latu in 2024 the book on Chris Ballard at Edge was that he liked to take unrefined, athletic freaks at the position. By itself, it’s not a bad plan. You can always teach someone technique, you can’t teach someone to be bigger and faster than everyone else. Latu signaled a change. Latu was a fine athlete but he was a refined pass rusher who lacked power. He was the anti-Ballard defensive end and Ballard took him. J.T. Tuimoloau’s RAS was actually higher than Latu’s but his scouting report reads like a power rusher who lacked quickness. So how do we predict what kind of player Ballard might look to draft at the position?

“America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, bad-ass speed” – Eleanor Roosevelt (according to Ricky Bobby in Talladega Nights)

And this

So either Chris Ballard is pulling the rug out from underneath me at he’s talking about Linebackers here or he’s talking about Defensive Ends and he wants to get faster on the Edge. Which makes sense given that no one on the 2025 Colts had the kind of first step explosiveness that force Quarterbacks to step up into the waiting arms of someone like Latu, who wins not with speed and quickness but a well developed set of pass rush moves.

But wait, there’s more. I had written that before Chris Ballard said this on Monday 4/20/26:

Lou likes length and power but Ballard, the guy making the final decision, believes they need a “fastball” at edge.

He went on to say this about JTT, after just talking about how play on special teams can predict production on defense:

What this tells me is that they are very confident in JTT’s ability to start at defensive end opposite Latu. But he absolutely feels they need to add a fastball to the mix.

So with that (very limited) set of criteria in mind, let’s jump into who might be available when the Colts will pick.

Names to know:

Malachi Lawrence UCF- 9.95 RAS if you’re looking for speed off the edge (and I believe the Colts are) Malachi Lawrence has it. The book on Lawrence is that he’s a twitchy speed rusher with plenty of moves to go along with it. He’s inconsistent at best on run downs and will likely be limited early in his career to a role of pass rush specialist. This likely fits what the Colts want from the position given where they’re drafting. If Lawrence were a complete player, with those kind of testing numbers, he would be a high first round pick. As it stands I still believe Lawrence may hear his name called late on day one, just due to how freaky of an athlete he is at the position. If he’s on the board whenever the Colts pick, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in blue and white this fall. Lawrence went to the East-West Shrine Bowl on the West Team. He was coached by Colts Senior Assistant defensive line coach, Matt Raich during the week.

Jaishawn Barham Michigan- 8.82 RAS Barham transferred from Maryland to Michigan in 2023. He started 47 games in his college career. A converted off-ball linebacker, Barham’s RAS clocks in at 8.82 because he’s just 6’3” 240 lbs. Barham has the ability to play inside linebacker or rush from the edge and is explosive when on the line of scrimmage. He’s noted as playing with attitude and as Lance Zierlein called it “a salty demeanor”. What intrigues me the most about Barham is his positional flexibility. On early downs Indy can use him as a linebacker and slide him to the edge on passing downs to get that explosion off the edge. Lou Anarumo can probably think of all kinds of interesting blitz packages for a guy like Barham, as well.

Joshua Josephs Tennessee- 8.45 RAS the production from Josephs is lacking and the pass rushing burst isn’t always there on tape, but it does show up from time to time and it’s hard to call it anything other than explosive when it appears. His vertical jump (38.5) and broad jump (10’9”) bare that out. He is just 242lbs but he has 34” arms and Chris Ballard has to love that. The question becomes, do the Colts think they can get that burst, that jump off the line out of him consistently enough to give them the speed they’re looking for at the position? I can’t answer that question, I’ve only watched about 2.5 games of Josephs and I’d probably have to learn a lot more about Tennessee’s defensive system to be able to and I just don’t have time for that. I will say that he’s not my favorite realistic prospect at the position but if they do select him, I see the vision. Hopefully, if Indy takes him, the Colts staff has more ideas than I do about how to pull that burst out of him more than a handful of times a game.

Michael Heldman Central Michigan- 9.90 RAS I saw Heldman’s RAS score and I wanted to find a scouting report on the kid because I absolutely do not have Central Michigan tape from last season. And I couldn’t find a scouting report either. So I fired up the ole YouTube to find TV copy of Central Michigan games from 2025. The first game I turned on was Central Michigan vs. Michigan. I wanted to turn the tape on, see that he didn’t belong and then move down my list of prospects. Instead, Heldman showed a quick first step, good bend, solid hand usage to get off blocks and he held up well against the run, even stalemating a couple of double teams from the Michigan o-line. He not only belonged against that level of competition, he played well. So I fired up their game against Northwestern. It was a step down in competition, but still better than the rest of the MAC, and I saw the same thing (he did leave the game early due to injury, but point stands). Then I watched him against UMass and saw the same things as before. This kid is legit. He also stood out at the Hula Bowl, you can find several clips of him winning in full team drills on Twitter if you’re so inclined. He played more of a base end role last season and if the Colts are wanting to add a base end with the kind of first step and speed they’ve been talking about all offseason, rather than just a pass rush specialist, I think Heldman could fill the role really well. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him sneak into the back of the third round. I don’t know that he’ll ever be a 10 sack guy at the next level but the only reason he won’t be picked much higher than he is, is because he played at Central Michigan. Heldman played in the East-West Shrine Bowl on the West roster, he was coached by Colts Senior Assistant defensive line coach, Matt Raich during the week.

Keyron Crawford Auburn- N/A RAS Crawford transferred from Arkansas State to Auburn and became a productive player at their “Buck” linebacker spot. As I understand it, the Buck position comes with a lot of responsibilities, more than he is likely to have at the next level. He only played one year of high school football and the word on him is he’s still developing a feel for the game. He is also a highly athletic, twitchy rusher off the edge. As of the time of this writing he hasn’t done any athletic testing, I did find that he played through an injury in 2025, so one would assume he may have had offseason surgery and will be unable to test. Crawford profiles as a highly athletic, ascending talent that should be a better pro than college player.

Mason Reiger Wisconsin- 9.64 RAS if explosion grades told the whole story Reiger might just be the guy the Colts picked. I won’t lie, Reiger was a guy I was excited to watch, I turned on the tape and was disappointed by what I saw. I don’t think he has the kind of initial burst the Colts are looking for. With that said he looked quicker at the East West Shrine Bowl, both during the week and by racking up three sacks and earning himself the defensive MVP award in the process. Reiger is a Wisconsin guy and while I don’t think Ballard drafts from Wisconsin just to do it, it doesn’t hurt that it is Ballard’s alma mater. Reiger started as a walk-on at Louisville, before playing in 43 games at Louisville and Wisconsin (transferring in 2025). He did miss the 2024 season due to a knee injury that required a bone graft. Reiger played in the East-West Shrine Bowl on the East roster, he was coached by Colts assistant defensive line coach, Kalon Humphries during the week.

Keyshawn James-Newby New Mexico- 7.54 RAS his RAS score is low, I know. But James-Newby ran a blazing 4.53 second 40 yard dash and has 33” arms, which we know Ballard loves. He started his career at Montana Tech, then transferred to Idaho and then to New Mexico, and he was highly productive at each stop. He finished his college career with 247 tackles and 37.5 sacks. He also had two forced fumbles in each of his final two seasons. His RAS is what it is because he’s 6’2” 238lbs. Normally that would be somewhat of a dealbreaker but if the Colts are looking to double up at the position on day three, there are few prospects with more unteachable physical tools than KJN. James-Newby played in the East-West Shrine Bowl on the West roster, he was coached by Colts Senior Assistant defensive line coach, Matt Raich during the week.

Aidan Hubbard Northwestern- 8.76 RAS with his 6’4” 260lbs frame and 32” arms, Hubbard looks the part in uniform. His 40 yard dash time was slower than Indy would probably like to see, but his 38.5” vertical and 10’ broad jump likely go a long way in making up for that. Hubbard is a loose fit in that he doesn’t play the run well and his tape doesn’t exactly make him seem “twitchy” on the field. But once again Hubbard played in the East-West Shrine Bowl on the West roster, he was coached by Colts Senior Assistant defensive line coach, Matt Raich during the week. Hubbard is another “if they double up” candidate, late on day three.

Honorable Mention:

Cashius Howell Texas A&M- 8.11 RAS Howell has a lot of things going for him. Tons of experience, a finalist for a long list of defensive awards, highly productive, transferred from Bowling Green to the SEC, twitchy, bendy rusher- all good things. The reason he lands himself on the honorable mention list, and the reason his RAS is so low despite running a 4.59 second 40 yard dash is his size. Howell is 6’2” 253 lbs. But more than just that he has 30” arms which are 3” shorter than anyone Ballard has ever drafted at the position, regardless of skillset. It’s possible they fall in love with everything else but Ballard believes that the NFL is a big mans game and Howell doesn’t check all those boxes. His arms are only 1.5” shorter than some of the guys that made the lists above, but Howell could end up being an earlier day two pick and I just don’t see Ballard taking a swing on a size outlier at this position, that soon.

Dani Dennis-Sutton Penn State- 9.96 RAS with Dennis-Sutton’s height 6’6”, weight 256lbs and insane testing numbers (4.63 40, 39.5” vert, 10’11” broad jump) I was excited to turn on his tape. What I saw did not match those numbers. Dennis-Sutton’s first step and subsequent burst across the line of scrimmage, doesn’t look like someone who put up those kind of numbers. He’s not slow out of his stance by any means, but those numbers are deceptive compared to what the guy showed in game. Given his height, weight and testing, I expect him to be pushed up boards but I’m hopeful the Colts pass on him unless they’re wise to the fact that there’s something in the water in State College, PA as they always turn out players who test extremely well but their ability to actually play in the NFL doesn’t line up, and judge his testing numbers accordingly.

Final thoughts on the position:

This year the draft is incredibly deep with defensive end prospects. In other years guys like Dennis-Sutton might have gone late first, early second, this season he should be available in the third (unless teams are ignoring tape completely). I’m banking a lot on all of the speed talk we’ve heard all offseason. If I’m right on the type of player they’re looking for, I’ve got a chance. If I’ve evaluated these players differently than they have, well all bets are off. I will tell you I like the fit of Jaishawn Barham, with his first step quickness and his ability to play linebacker on early downs if that’s the direction the team wants to go. I think he kills two birds with one stone. I don’t know that Malachi Lawrence will even be available by pick 47 and the second round is probably too early for my favorite prospect of the group Michael Heldman. Predicting defensive ends has been hard to do of late and picking which flavor of defensive end the Colts want adds to the difficulty.

Wide Receiver

The wide receiver position has been a “tale of two coaches” for Chris Ballard, early on with Frank Reich at the helm, the team seemed to select big-bodied receivers with a penchant for contested catches and their ability to run block. During the Shane Steichen era, the team has focused primarily on smaller, quicker, polished route runners who have an ability to separate from defenders, getting open quickly against man coverage. After trading away Ad Mitchell a season ago and Michael Pittman Jr., earlier this offseason the Colts should look to add a player to produce and grow with their newly re-signed franchise quarterback (like it or not) Daniel Jones.

Like the Edge position, this year’s receiver class is deep. It lacks the star power at the top of the draft that recent drafts have had but this year is littered with future starters and contributors on each day of the draft. So who’s it gonna be?

Names to know:

Skyler Bell Connecticut- 9.83RAS the two biggest knocks on Bell are that his route running is too mechanical and he isn’t a natural hands catcher. But I do remember Reggie Wayne forcing a lot of body catches early in his career, as well. I’m not saying Bell is on par with Reggie Wayne as a prospect, but it is a similarity I remember from watching Wayne those first few years, believing firmly that Bill Polian has lost his fastball. His other knock isn’t that he fails to create separation or that he’s a bad route runner, just that he’s mechanical. These negatives may be overcome by his absolutely insane athletic ability. He isn’t the route runner (or playmaker) that Ad Mitchell was coming out of Texas, however Bell’s vertical and broad jumps are on par with the latest Chris Ballard day two pick at the position.

Germie Bernard Alabama- 9.06 RAS a vertical jump of 32.5” is really, really good for the average person you meet in your day to day life. For an NFL receiver, it’s not great. Outside of that vertical jump Bernard grades out as a very good athlete. His 4.31 shuttle time couldn’t get more average and his 4.48 speed isn’t elite, but it’s still very good. His broad jump, 40 time and 3-cone scores are in-line with Josh Downs, while being nearly four inches taller and weighing 35 pounds more than the Indy slot receiver. Bernard is considered a polished route runner who excels against zone coverage but struggles to separate versus man to man. He is a willing blocker and was used in a variety of ways in multiple roles at Bama. He also played in more than 50 games in college and Chris Ballard told us they’re looking for highly experienced rookies who can contribute right away. The two things that might prevent Indy from turning in his card are 1. he may not be available when Indy is on the board and looking for a wideout and 2. his inconsistency against man coverage. I think Steichen could use him in really interesting ways but we’ve only seen guys who win quick against man coverage get drafted early under Steichen the question becomes, are his strengths enough to overcome this deficiency?

Antonio Williams Clemson- 8.58 RAS Williams stepped on campus at Clemson and at 18 years old, and instantly became The Guy in the receiver room reeling in a team leading 56 catches for 605 yards and 4 touchdowns. His sophomore year was derailed after five games with ankle and foot injuries. His junior year he was named to the first team All-ACC as a receiver catching 75 balls for 904 yards and 11 touchdowns. He was also named Honorable Mention All-ACC as a return specialist. His senior season he suffered a hamstring injury on the first drive, of the first game of the season against LSU. Despite missing multiple games he still led Clemson with 55 receptions for 604 yards and 4 touchdowns. Lance Zierlein describes his route running as containing a “freestyling” element, that helps him create separation from Cornerbacks. We saw similar qualities from Ad Mitchell. Like Mitchell, those freestyle routes may create timing issues between Williams and his quarterback. He’s noted as being a playmaker with the ball in his hands and someone who can run, pass the ball and catch, also similar qualities to Ad Mitchell. Where Williams falls short to the Mitchell comps (among other things) is that he isn’t nearly the athlete that Mitchell is. His 4.41 second 40 yard dash is excellent but, it’s still seven one-hundredths slower than the New York Jet and his broad jump a full foot shorter. Coupled with being three inches shorter and 18 pounds lighter, Williams doesn’t quite match up. However expecting anyone to matchup with Ad Mitchell as an athlete is absolutely asking for too much. I think Williams is a good candidate for Indy who just might be available when the Colts start looking for help at the position.

Deion Burks Oklahoma- 9.11 RAS if Burks lands in Indy he would instantly become the teams fastest receiver. Running a 4.30 second 40 yard dash at the combine. With that said, he didn’t consistently win on deep routes, not that he needs to as Alec Pierce has that role locked down for the Colts, it’s still interesting to note a guy with that kind of speed. Burks is noted as a good route runner and is good after the catch. Burks has short arms and might be a slot-only receiver at the next level but the route running and athleticism might be too much to pass up in the third round.

Ja’Kobi Lane USC- 9.39 RAS if Lane were a better route runner he would be a slam dunk for Indy on day three. That said if they want a Michael Pittman Jr. replacement, Lane is a great option. He does struggle to get off of press coverage, something Chris Ballard has talked about as being a detriment in the past and he doesn’t consistently create the kind of separation Shane Steichen seems to covet. That said, he wins a lot of contested catch situations and it highly valuable near the goal line. At 6’4” and 200 pounds he doesn’t have the bulk that MPJ had, but MPJ didn’t have the speed and acceleration JKL has, either.

Cyrus Allen Cincinnati- 8.69 RAS Allen is noted for being able to create separation with his speed and acceleration. He plays faster than his timed 4.49 second 40 yard dash and he grades out athletically similarly to Josh Downs (if you squint). Allen isn’t a polished route runner, but if he were he likely wouldn’t be a day three option. The real issue I see with the Cincinnati man is that while most of the other players I’ve listed so far have all had potential out wide and in the slot (due mostly to the potential of losing Downs in free agency after next season), Allen is mentioned as being limited to the slot receiver role. Chris Ballard has talked about Josh Downs having the ability to play outside, but in practice we’ve yet to see him produce much in that role. Taking someone like Allen signals the teams absolute belief that Downs actually can play outside and that they have plans to do so.

J. Michael Sturdivant Florida- 9.96 RAS we have arrived at the part of the article where we’re picking out traitsy, freak-show athletes who show just enough skill to maybe, kind of, fit what the Colts are looking for that the position. Sturdivant’s father played receiver at Virginia Tech and his uncle was none-other than Floyd Little. At this point he isn’t a great route runner but he isn’t limited physically in any conceivable way, so there is reason to believe this aspect of his game can improve. He has good footwork, tough over the middle and displays good ball skills working the sidelines. His biggest weaknesses can all be taught. Being 6’2” 207lbs, running a 4.40 40, having a 39” vertical and 10’11” broad jump, cannot. On day three you have to live with some warts and betting on a guy with Sturdivant’s physical tools in the middle of day three, is a pretty good bet to make. If he was a good- not even polished route runner, Sturdivant wouldn’t be a day three prospect.

Ted Hurst Georgia State- 9.90 RAS Hurst is another 6’4” receiver to make this list. Unlike Lane he isn’t a contested catch king. Instead he can create separation with good footwork and knows how to defeat press coverage. The biggest downside is that he doesn’t have much experience run blocking, something that we know Ballard likes from his receivers. He did transfer up in competition going from Valdosta State to Georgia State, but his level of competition was still poor. Hurst is an athletic freak with more developed skills than most athletic freaks that come out of places like Georgia State, but he may not be available when the Colts look to add to the position.

Honorable Mention:

Zachariah Branch Georgia 9.12 RAS athletically Branch is pretty similar to Josh Downs, only he’s more than a 1/10th of a second faster in the 40 yard dash. He’s better with the ball in his hands known for creating explosive plays. Where Branch and Downs really deviate is in how they go about actually getting the ball. Downs was a high level route runner, whereas Branch lived on screens and manufactured touches in the SEC. He was able to use his ability as a playmaker to pick up yards after the catch. Conversely, Downs lives over the middle, reeling in passes after making his defender look silly. Branch is another player most consider to be a slot only prospect. There are two reasons Branch finds himself in the Honorable Mention section of this article. The first is that I expect him to be gone long before the Colts are looking for receiver help and second, because, I just don’t see Chris Ballard rolling out a team with multiple sub 5’10” receivers making up it’s top three players on the depth chart. I don’t think the receiver they take this year needs to be the kind of 6’4” tower that they liked under Frank Reich, but successful 5’9” receivers are outliers and Ballard once said of size, if you draft a bunch of outliers, then you have a team of outliers. Branch might develop into a fantastic playmaker from the slot receiver position, I just don’t think he’ll do it in Indy.

Malik Benson Oregon- 6.05 RAS Malik Benson’s ability as a deep threat is heralded. In fact if DK Metcalf were 4” shorter and 30 pounds lighter, and his vertical jump were 8” shorter and his broad jump 12” less, then we’d be talking about practically the same player. Alright, so Benson and Metcalf aren’t really that much alike outside of their ability deep, their great play speed and their really bad agility testing. When looking through day three prospects, I wasn’t expecting to find a ton of guys who were finished products, especially not when it came to the more technical aspects of playing the position. What I was looking for were guys with some of the tools and the traits to succeed and grow into the type of player Shane Steichen could use in his offense. When I got to Benson I found a guy with track speed and the kind of size you would expect to see from a guy with some ability to develop those more technical aspects. Instead I found a guy who’s exceptional creating separation deep with all of the agility and explosion of a security guard at Greenwood Park Mall. With that said, he’s noted for having a big catch radius and playing with a lot of toughness over the middle. I don’t see the fit in Indy but I will understand the thought process for the team that takes him.

Final thoughts on the position:

Receiver is another position that has become somewhat tough to predict for Indy. In the past you found big prospects, who were productive and could block and if he was a good athlete, Bob’s your uncle. Now, despite having more data on Chris Ballard’s drafts, that data has only worked to muddy the water on the picture that is what the Colts will look for at the receiver position.

It’s entirely possible the Colts want a more direct replacement for Michael Pittman Jr. It’s possible they want another big bodied chain mover and if that’s the case, my list of players above is sure to be more wrong than right. With that said, let’s hope I’ve estimated correctly.

Offensive Line

Ah, here we go, a position group I’m confident I at least have a somewhat firm grip on what Chris Ballard and his staff will be looking for. Ballard has consistently looked for a few things along his offensive lines. First he needs you to be big, unless you’re playing center, then as long as you’re more well put together than the average guy in an I70 truck stop at 2 AM, you’re good to go. But otherwise, height and weight seem to matter. You also need to be an elite athlete, all of Ballard’s biggest day two and three hits along the offensive line have graded out as exceptional RAS athletes and I think they’ll continue to look in that direction unless the situation is juuuust right.

Historically the Colts have cared less about arm length on the edges, with Jalen Travis’ nearly 35” arms being the exception. Travis also boasted a 9.09 RAS score to go along with those long arms so when considering the preponderance of evidence, it’s tough think that Travis’ selection marks some sort of shift in philosophy, the way the philosophy has shifted at Edge and receiver in the past few years. That said Chris Ballard does have a history of drafting huge players for his offensive line and it’s hard to argue with his methodology at the position, finding good offensive linemen on all three days of the draft.

The challenge of the offensive line isn’t knowing what the Colts are looking for, it is always narrowing down the field of guys into a list and then picking the right ones for THE List. This year we believe the focus is going to be on finding depth and competition up front, specifically someone who can fill in at center and swing tackle. But I’m not going to completely ignore guards, either. So lets get into it and see what we come up with.

Names to know:

Brian Parker II Duke- 9.13 RAS Parker started most of his 40 games played at right tackle. He never played a game at center but the belief is, it will be his best position in the NFL. Part of the reason most are projecting him to the center position is his lack of arm length. That’s true for most NFL center prospects but at 32 7/8” arms, he measures identically to Bernhard Raimann. To be fair Raimann was a better, albeit older, prospect but my point is, while he is projected to move inside at the next level I don’t believe the Colts would mind kicking him out to right tackle in a backup role if the need should arise. He likely wouldn’t do much to push Goncalves but his addition would provide the team with a solid second option at multiple OL positions.

Travis Burke Memphis- 9.05 RAS Chris Ballard really does love massive offensive linemen and Burke fits the bill. Standing at nearly 6’9” tall and weighing in at 325 pounds, you won’t find many guys like him out in the wild. Oh except for Jalen Travis 6’8” 339 pounds with a 9.09 RAS. Burke isn’t going to fill the hole left by Danny Pinter’s departure, but he will fill the hole left by Braden Smith’s departure to the Houston Texans. The plan wouldn’t be to slot Burke into the starting right tackle but rather let Burke take over as the backup swing tackle if either Raimann or Travis has to miss any time at all. Previously Travis filled the swing tackle role but he’ll be a little preoccupied starting to worry about filling in at left tackle if the need were to arise.

Caleb Tiernan Northwestern- 9.37 RAS Tiernan is nearly 6’8” tall. Ultimately Tiernan may not fit the teams need for a backup center but he is exactly the kind of prospect Indy would be interested in on day two of the draft to fill in at swing tackle. A team captain who played in 52 games, making 43 starts. Most of his starts came at left tackle but he did start games as a redshirt freshman at right tackle. Tiernan’s biggest weaknesses are his 32” arms, which are surprising given how massive he otherwise is. Due to his arm length some people believe he’ll have success moving inside to guard at the next level, if he moves inside his RAS jumps from 9.37 to 9.66. Both scores are solidly elite but it’s tough to argue he has the size and athletic profile the Colts will be interested in.

Diego Pounds Ole Miss- 8.57 RAS Pounds is another large man at 6’6” 325 pounds. Athletically he’s not a perfect fit but he’s still a very good athlete for the position. He only played left tackle in college and he wasn’t a stand out run blocker either. That said if he continues to develop as a player you could do a lot worse than Diego Pounds as your swing tackle.

Jake Slaughter Florida- 9.97 RAS Slaughter is a centers, center who is unlikely to provide much help at guard and you can probably forget about tackle. Slaughter is a highly experienced center playing in 51 games for the Gators in his five years in Gainesville. He was a multi year captain, second team All American, first team All-SEC and was a Rimmington Trophy finalist. If Indy misses out on someone with more position flexibility, Slaughter has what the team is looking for, for depth at the center position.

Austin Barber Florida- 9.81 RAS another player nearing 6’7” makes the list as Barber checks the size box. He has started games at both right and left tackle in his college career. He is someone else on this list that may not be the best run blocker but has the athleticism time to improve all facets of his game and would fit nicely in Indy as their third tackle.

Jager Burton Kentucky- 9.88 RAS last year UK had a center I really liked named Eli Cox. Cox was an excellent athlete who I thought was better than the discourse around him leading up to the draft. The NFL disagreed with me and he went undrafted. He did latch on with the Houston Texans and is currently on their roster. In 2025 Burton took over the spot in the middle of UK’s offensive line and played well. Because of Cox’s play, Burton has started games at left guard, right guard and now center. I don’t like Burton’s tape as much as I liked Cox, but I do like him more as a guard than a center. Either way I think he could be the type of player the Colts take a shot on, on day three.

Trey Zuhn III Texas A&M- 9.99 RAS having started 50 games, 48 at left tackle and two at center, Zuhn is the kind of prospect Chris Ballard was talking about when he said that targeting experienced players could yield immediate results. Zuhn, when moved to center on the RAS website, has the second highest RAS score for a center of all time. The Colts value athleticism on the offensive line and Zuhn has it in droves. The general belief is that due to his shorter than ideal arms he’ll need to move inside in the NFL. The Colts generally don’t concern themselves too much with shorter armed tackle prospects but his potential to play at multiple positions on the line coupled with his ability to be the backup at center from day one may be too much for them to overlook. He played his entire career at left tackle, but if Indy believes there is any chance he could swing to the right side too, his value just goes up that much more. I’m not sure, yet, that Zuhn will make THE List at the end of this article, but this guy’s fit with what we believe the team wants is hard to ignore.

Riley Mahlman Wisconsin- 8.01 RAS Mahlman has the experience the Colts typically look for out of their offensive linemen, starting all four years at both right and left tackle. He is also 6’8”. He has room to add weight only tipping the scales at 308 pounds currently and notably lacking core strength. He is an effective run blocker but was beaten too often in pass protection that may have been due mostly to his shorter arms. Being from Wisconsin doesn’t hurt as Ballard himself was no doubt aware of Mahlman just from being a Badger fan. He may be a good option late on day three if the Colts miss out on a swing tackle prospect earlier in the draft.

Honorable Mention:

Conner Lew Auburn- N/A RAS Lew is considered by many to be the top center prospect in this class. With that said he was a true Junior who only started 25 games at Auburn and will be coming into his rookie year off of a torn ACL. Given the fact that he seems likely to go on day two of the draft and the uncertainty of when Lew will be ready to practice and play this offseason, I don’t think he is a great fit for what Indy is looking for at the position.

Pat Coogan Indiana- 6.80 RAS the only reason I’m including Coogan’s name in this article is because he is almost as Hoosier as it gets. He is from Illinois originally, but he went to Notre Dame as a freshman, played there for four years, transferred to Indiana, helped the Hoosiers win their first national championship in school history and was named the Offensive MVP of the Rose Bowl the first time the award went to an offensive lineman since 1944. Coogan better never pay for a drink in the state of Indiana as long as he lives. But having said that, he just doesn’t fit the Indianapolis Colts OL profile at all. His size is fine for the position, his short arms don’t matter, it’s his athletic makeup that prevents me from giving him the greenlight to be considered. It probably would have been better for him to not run the shuttle drill and his 10 yard split in the 40 yard dash was awful. His vertical jump and broad jump were fine but for a team with a GM who has famously said there’s a reason you test the players athletically, Coogan just doesn’t fit. IF the Colts do take Coogan, it will be because of everything else, not because of who he is as a player and I wouldn’t bet on that happening.

Final Thoughts on the Position:

The number of offensive linemen this year who fit what the Colts might be looking for is smaller than in years past. We’re looking for position flexibility and the ability to fill in at center. Those guys don’t grow on trees but they are easier to find than a day one starter at any offensive line position. If I’ve miscalculated the team’s need for their next offensive line draftee, then there’s a good chance none of the names on this list end up on the teams website on the evening of April 25th. But if that is the case, just know there are a lot of very good prospects who fit the Colts typical mold for OL available at every level of this draft.

Safety

Chris Ballard drafts a lot of safeties. On one hand it feels like he’s been trying to convert one to linebacker, successfully for a long time now. He tried to convert Marvell Tell III to cornerback, back in 2019 and that didn’t work out. But alas, each year (sans 2018) he takes a safety either for his defense immediately (Blackmon, Willis, Hooker) for development (Carlies, Cross, Thomas, Tell) or for special teams (Wohler, Scott). Sometimes he takes guys and I have no idea what the plan was supposed to be (Simpson, Davis).

You can argue that Blackmon was for the future, but at that point Hooker was going into the final year of his deal, had never played a full season and the team declined to pick up Hooker’s 5th year option a week after the 2020 draft ended. Hooker only played two games in 2020, but either way the writing was on the wall. They were looking for a replacement with Blackmon and they didn’t have much time to wait on development.

The investment at defensive back for the 2026 Colts has been substantial. They’re paying Cam Bynum, they’re paying Mooney Ward, they’re paying Sauce Gardner and while they’re currently seeking a trade, they’re paying Kenny Moore as a top-flight nickel corner. They’re spending a ton of money on the back half of the defense. So in that way it’s far different than it was in 2020. In other ways it feels very similar.

Going into the 2025 draft they didn’t have Sauce Gardner, they were paying Ward and Bynum, sure. But they didn’t know what they were going to do at CB2. There was every reason to let Nick Cross play out his contract, see if he continued to grow as a very young player, if his first year starting was an aberration or if 2024 was who he was. Once they determined if they wanted to bring him back, or rather what price to bring him back at, this time last year there was no way they could have known what was about to happen. We can debate good decisions versus bad decisions all day, but the fact of the matter is that’s what happened. It makes sense and this is where we find ourselves at the position. After bringing in the aforementioned free agents (all on one year deals) there are players in place who can take snaps this year but they’re all only here for a year and the most direct Cross-replacement has had serious injury concerns during his career.

And in that way it feels just like 2020. Since this is an offensive draft it’s safe to expect safety to come on day three and if I were a betting man, I would bet it would happen early on that third day. Let’s jump into the names to know.

Names to know:

Bud Clark TCU 8.90 RAS Clark is described by Zierlein as being a safety in a cornerback’s body. He’s also noted for being willing to come downhill and make plays in the run game, but at 188 pounds, you do worry about injuries from someone willing to get in there and throw their bag of bones around. Clark ran a 4.41 and posted great explosion scores. His scouting report and testing numbers read like a more athletic Kenny Moore. Clark also has the experience Ballard is seeking, spending six seasons at TCU and playing in 61 (not a typo, sixty-one) games. He was a three time team captain and had 15 interceptions over the course of his last four college seasons. Clark missed time in three of his six seasons at TCU and in Lou’s defense he might be more of a Kenny Moore replacement than a one to one replacement for Nick Cross. But Clark’s playmaking and athleticism might be enough for Lou to want to scheme around that loss rather than replace it directly.

A.J. Haulcy LSU- N/A RAS at nearly 6’ 215 Haulcy has the size to play in the void left by Nick Cross. He’s a noted playmaker and wood-layer willing to fill against the run and break up passes via violent contact. He’s the kind of guy you love to have on your team and hate on your opponent. Haulcy started his career at New Mexico before transferring to Houston and then on to LSU where he became a first-team All-SEC member in his only season in the conference. Not only is he a violent finisher he intercepted 8 passes total during his junior and senior seasons. He played in 48 career games and his football IQ seems to match that experience. He is noted as having deficiencies in man coverage and his acceleration and long speed are questionable.

VJ Payne Kansas State- 9.74 RAS playing in 52 games in a power four conference is something I’m used to seeing out of offensive linemen. It’s rare to see someone with that much experience at defensive back and it’s rarer still for someone with that type of experience to play that many games in a major conference that tests as a legitimate athletic freak and team captain. At 6’3” 208, running a 4.40 second 40 yard dash, a 10’7” broad jump and a 6.94 second 3 cone drill he has great long speed, acceleration and agility. Not to mention his nearly 34” arms (that Chris Ballard has to love). At K-State he was used in a multitude of ways, playing single high, split, in the box and man to man against tight ends. In fact he was very good against several very good tight ends his senior season. Payne isn’t a perfect fit, however. He isn’t a one to one replacement for Nick Cross. He doesn’t provide nearly the run support of Cross but Payne isn’t a liability either. He’s fine coming down hill to make a tackle. He doesn’t get around blocks consistently enough for my taste and in my opinion he didn’t play to his size against the run, while he absolutely does in coverage. Anaroumo will likely have to account for this change if Payne is on the field but it might be something they’re willing to deal with if they like his trajectory of development overall.

Kamari Ramsey USC- 8.48 RAS Ramsey’s biggest flaw is that he is said to have improved his tackling a lot in 2025 but still isn’t great against the run. He is, however, solid in coverage with experience playing all over the defense including in the slot. Outside of his run game issues, Ramsey has also only played in 35 games, missing six games over the past two seasons (though one game was due to food poisoning). Regardless no matter how good he is in coverage, no matter how versatile he is on the back end, the Colts will have to be sure they’re willing to sign off on someone who has consistently missed so much time while in college.

[Robert Spears-Jenning