Contender vs. pretender: Which MLB teams are serious about making the 2026 playoffs?

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We're just about a quarter of the way through the 2026 season, and every MLB team has played between 38 and 42 games. Across the board, the results have been disappointing, and eighteen teams sit below .500, though half of those are no more than three games under. But let's focus on the 12 teams at .500 or above in a little game of contender vs. pretender.

We'll go in order of record.

Atlanta Braves

Record: 28-13
Run differential: +87 
Strength of schedule: .494 (17th)

They've been the best offensive team in baseball behind the likes of Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II. It's reasonable to believe Baldwin can't keep this up, and surely Dominic Smith (.329 average with a 150 OPS+) can't either, but Ronald Acuña Jr. is hurt and capable of more while Austin Riley has been much better than this before in his career. On the pitching side, Bryce Elder and Martin Pérez feel unlikely to keep pitching the way they are, but Spencer Strider looked like his old self over the weekend. That bullpen is among MLB's best.

Contender or pretender? Strong contender, no question.

Tampa Bay Rays

Record: 26-13
Run differential: +20
Strength of schedule: .520 (4th)

The Rays rank 18th in runs scored and 18th in OPS. It's a throwback offense in that they rank very highly in batting average and are one of the hardest teams to strike out. They steal bases, too.

Run prevention is the Rays' calling card, and they rank fifth in team ERA. There's reason to believe Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan can pitch like frontline starters all year, but are we really buying Nick Martinez for a full season at a 1.70 ERA, even with the Rays' alleged magic involved?

The Rays were 12-11 at one point, but have now won 14 of 16 games to take over the best record in the AL.

Contender or pretender? I'm not willing to straight-up call them a pretender, given their history of overachievement compared to how they look on paper, but they aren't this good. Not for a full season. I'll say mild contender.

Chicago Cubs

Record: 27-14
Run differential: +47
Strength of schedule: .520 (5th)

The team with the best on-base percentage in the majors is third in runs scored and fourth in slugging percentage. If you went through on an individual basis, they don't have anyone very obviously playing far above his ceiling except Michael Conforto and that's in only 55 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Michael Busch, Alex Bregman, probably Dansby Swanson and maybe Pete Crow-Armstrong are either capable of better or have started righting the ship in recent weeks.

The bullpen is good and getting healthier after a spate of early season injuries. The rotation depth is the concern thanks to three key injuries, but there's reason for optimism with Shota Imanaga toward the front and Ben Brown toward the back. Also, keep in mind that deficits on the pitching staff can be mediated by arguably the best defense in baseball. That's why it has worked so far.

Contender or pretender? Strong contender.

New York Yankees

Record: 26-15
Run differential: +73
Strength of schedule: .489 (23rd)

They lead the majors in home runs and are second in slugging. It isn't just Aaron Judge. Ben Rice has been one of the best hitters in baseball, while the Yankees have gotten good work from Cody Bellinger and Amed Rosario. There should be better coming from Jazz Chisholm Jr. and probably Trent Grisham, too. The offense will remain high-powered.

The Yankees are in a virtual tie for first in team ERA with the Braves. They just got Carlos Rodón back from the IL on Sunday and Gerrit Cole isn't far behind. The leaky bullpen was a big issue last year, but outside a few blips -- which everyone has -- things are vastly improved there, too.

Contender or pretender? Strong contender.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Record: 24-16
Run differential: +69 
Strength of schedule: .494 (18th)

The two-time defending champs started 15-4, but have gone 9-12 since. Still, they are in fine position and we don't really need to spend all that much time here, do we?

Contender or pretender? Easy. The strongest contender.

San Diego Padres

Record: 24-16
Run differential: +3 
Strength of schedule: .485 (25th)

The offense has been terrible. The Padres are in a virtual tie for 27th in OPS at just .667. It's a tough home ballpark, sure, but their OPS+ as a team is 87, meaning that, adjusted for ballpark, the Padres are still 13% below average at getting on base and hitting for power as a team. The main culprits for the underperformance are Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill. Assuming they get on track, will Xander Bogaerts, Miguel Andujar and Ty France be able to maintain their outputs? There are major worries about the offense.

Michael King and Randy Vásquez have been very good in the rotation, but that's the extent of it. We can't be sure about the returns of Nick Pivetta and/or Joe Musgrove, either.

It's remarkable the Padres are eight games over .500, really. Give Mason Miller and his fellow back-end relievers credit. They are doing some heavy lifting.

Contender or pretender? The Padres might well contend for the long haul here due to banking so many wins early in the season, but I've got them as a pretender. This roster is just too thin.

Milwaukee Brewers

Record: 22-16
Run differential: +54
Strength of schedule: .507 (11th)

The Brewers started 8-2 and then lost six straight. Then they won five of six before losing four straight to fall back to .500 at 13-13. They've gone 9-3 since and just swept the Yankees. They also recently got Jackson Chourio and Andrew Vaughn back in their lineup after starting the season on the injured list.

The rotation is dealing with the Brandon Woodruff injury, but Jacob Misiorowski sure looks like an ace, while Kyle Harrison, Chad Patrick and Logan Henderson are showing themselves quite capable.

I mentioned the recent history of overperforming how a team looks on paper when we discussed the Rays. The Brewers are better at it. They aren't going anywhere.

Contender or pretender? Strong contender.

St. Louis Cardinals

Record: 23-17
Run differential: +3
Strength of schedule: .509 (9th)

As a team, the Cardinals are 15th in OPS and 24th in ERA. Their run differential suggests they should be .500 instead of six games over.

The offense has shown some good pieces in there, such as Jordan Walker and Iván Herrera, in addition to plenty of deserved optimism surrounding JJ Wetherholt. Michael McGreevy has been great in the rotation and Riley O'Brien is a wonderful story at closer after not being able to find full-time MLB work for so long.

I'm not buying things in 2026 in the big picture, though, especially not in the NL Central, where every team is still above .500.

Contender or pretender? Pretender.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Record: 22-19
Run differential: +31
Strength of schedule: .522 (2nd)

The calling card here is the rotation, headed up by Paul Skenes. Since the Opening Day debacle, he's been, again, as advertised. Mitch Keller and Braxton Ashcraft have been good enough to give the Pirates a trio of frontline starters so far. Plus, Jared Jones has looked good in his two minor-league rehab starts on his way back from elbow surgery. This rotation is going to be good all year.

Offensively is where the questions lie with this group. So far, the Pirates rank sixth in the majors in OPS as a team. Brandon Lowe is bringing the thunder like he always has when healthy. Oneil Cruz might be having a breakout season and Ryan O'Hearn and Spencer Horwitz have been solid. There's room for improvement, too, because Bryan Reynolds is capable of a better average and slugging, while there's an avenue to expect top prospect Konnor Griffin to get better as the season progresses.

Contender or pretender? I like them to stay right in the slightly-over-.500 mix. They are a mild contender.

Cincinnati Reds

Record: 22-19
Run differential: -33
Strength of schedule: .490 (21st)

Through April, the Reds were 20-11 with some wild comeback wins and regression seemed inevitable based on their one-run record and run differential. Then they lost their first eight games of May.

Remember, the Reds are dealing with injuries to frontline starters Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. That's put strain on the rest of the pitching staff, obviously, and the offense is pretty thin. Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart need more help than from just Nathaniel Lowe and Spencer Steer. TJ Friedl is better than this, but who else is sure to start getting things going? I'm dubious.

Perhaps the worst sign of all? The Reds are 3-10 against teams on this list (.500 or better) and 19-9 against sub-.500 teams.

Contender or pretender? I had them as a contender back in the spring, but it sure looks like they are a pretender right now.

Athletics

Record: 21-19
Run differential: -6
Strength of schedule: .489 (22nd)

The Athletics are the only AL West team on here (and notice we haven't even had an AL Central team yet) and that is a factor.

The offense should be the calling card here and, sure enough, the A's are seventh in OPS, though 11th in runs per game. Many of us were expecting more home runs from those not named Shea Langeliers, such as Nick Kurtz (five to this point), Tyler Soderstrom (five) and Brent Rooker (five, but he was hurt for a bit) and these guys are plenty streaky and capable. I think the offense ticks upward, if anything.

The A's rank 19th in rotation ERA, but a lot of that is Jacob Lopez pulling them down. Luis Severino has been fine other than his high walk total, while Jeffrey Springs, J.T. Ginn and Aaron Civale have been pretty good.

Oakland only played nine games against teams .500 or better, but this is mostly a product of the bad division. Again, it's a factor.

Contender or pretender? In terms of the MLB at large, this is a mild contender. You throw them in the AL West and we've probably gotta upgrade them at least a little bit. They do have a two-game lead, after all. I still have the Mariners winning the division here, but the A's have some staying power.

Cleveland Guardians

Record: 21-21
Run differential: -4
Strength of schedule: .513 (6th)

The Guardians score 4.12 runs per game, which ranks 22nd in baseball. They are 23rd in OPS and 26th in batting average. I think it's reasonable to believe José Ramírez and Steven Kwan to be better moving forward, along with Kyle Manzardo. This still isn't a very good offense.

They rank 12th in ERA. I like Parker Messick and Gavin Williams is going to be more good than bad. The bullpen will get sorted out, even if it's not close to as dominant as it was a few years ago.

I mostly see mediocrity. Then again, look around the rest of the division.

Contender or pretender? No one in this division is to be trusted, so while I don't think the Guardians are good, not being bad could be good enough here. They are a contender.