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Cubs vs Phillies Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's MLB Game
TL;DR
The Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs are tied in their three-game series, with the final game taking place tonight at Citizens Bank Park. Predictions favor the Phillies, particularly pitcher Jesus Luzardo, to secure a win.
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The Philadelphia Phillies and the Chicago Cubs have split the first two of their three-game set and will play the series finale at Citizens Bank Park tonight.
My top Cubs vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks call for Philadelphia lefty Jesus Luzardo to flip the switch and lead Philly to the win tonight.
Who will win Cubs vs Phillies today: Phillies (-136)
Philadelphia Phillies lefty Jesus Luzardo has screaming statistical correction coming, with his 2.82 xERA and 1.65 xFIP way below his 6.23 ERA, and both his .359 BABIP and 46.5% strand rate are unsustainably bad.
The Phillies also finished the 2025 season ranked fifth in wOBA against left-handed pitchers, so I’m expecting Chicago Cubs southpaw Shota Imanaga to have trouble navigating the Philly lineup tonight.
Imanaga has had the luxury of a soft schedule to start the campaign, and the Phillies sport the second-lowest BABIP and fifth-lowest wOBA against lefties in 2026.
Covers
COVERS INTEL:
Philadelphia finished seventh in ISO against lefties in 2025 and is ranked 28th through 17 games this season.
Cubs vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-114)
In addition to the highlighted expected bump in production from the Philadelphia lineup, Chicago was also solid against southpaws with the sixth-highest wOBA.
So, while I'm expecting a tidier showing from Luzardo tonight, I’m not anticipating him to completely cool down the Chicago lineup. Plus, these two teams have combined for 34 runs through the first two games of the series.
Neil Parker's 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 4-4, +0.21 units
- Over/Under bets: 1-3, -2.37 units
Cubs vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Cubs +113 | Phillies -136
- Run line: Cubs +1.5 (-181) | Phillies -1.5 (+149)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Cubs vs Phillies trend
The Cubs have only covered the run line in 19 of their last 50 away games for -16.45 units and a -26% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Phillies.
How to watch Cubs vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Wednesday, April 15, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Shota Imanaga (0-1, 2.81 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Jesus Luzardo (1-2, 6.23 ERA) |
Cubs vs Phillies latest injuries
Cubs vs Phillies weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Q&A
What are the odds for the Cubs vs Phillies game today?
The odds favor the Philadelphia Phillies at -136 for their game against the Chicago Cubs.
Who is starting for the Phillies in the game against the Cubs?
Jesus Luzardo is the starting pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies in their game against the Chicago Cubs.
What is Jesus Luzardo's current ERA and how does it compare to his xERA?
Jesus Luzardo has a current ERA of 6.23, which is significantly higher than his xERA of 2.82, indicating potential for improvement.
