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Guardiola critica el arbitraje tras el empate ante el Everton
The Indianapolis Colts are projected to have an average of 8.5 wins, but their strength of schedule is ranked as the ninth-easiest, providing a potential pathway to the playoffs.
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Despite average win projections, Indianapolis Colts' strength of schedule offers hope
Though the Indianapolis Colts have middling expectations, they have an opportunity to make a playoff run.
Sharp Football Analysis breaks down NFL schedule strengths for the coming season, placing the Colts with the ninth-easiest. That may give them a better chance to reach the postseason, even though Las Vegas sportsbooks largely put their projected win total at 8.5.
The Vegas projections make sense, considering they went 9-8 in 2023 and 8-9 the previous two seasons.
Sharp notes that basing the coming season's schedule strength on the previous season's record is unreliable, and that taking into account offseason changes in personnel, coaches and injury status more accurately reflects a team's projected record and schedule strength. Sportsbooks, Sharp said, use that method.
Sharp adds that luck — such as tipped passes that result in interceptions and fumbles — that played into a team's previous season cannot be forecasted into the coming season's projection.
Why is this important? In 2025, just two of eight teams with the toughest schedules, according to Sharp, made the playoffs (Houston Texans, Los Angeles Rams). That list included the Minnesota Vikings and the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Indianapolis Colts are projected to have a win total of 8.5 for the upcoming season.
The Colts have the ninth-easiest strength of schedule in the NFL for the coming season.
The Colts went 9-8 in 2023 and had records of 8-9 in both of the previous two seasons.
Yes, the Colts have a chance to make a playoff run due to their favorable strength of schedule.

Guardiola critica el arbitraje tras el empate ante el Everton
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Tight end Tyler Warren of Penn State was selected 14th overall in the 2025 NFL draft.
Defensive end Laiatu Latu of UCLA was selected 15th overall in the 2024 NFL draft.
Quarterback Anthony Richardson of Florida was selected fourth overall in the 2023 NFL draft.
Defensive end Kwity Paye of Michigan was selected 21st overall in the 2022 NFL draft.
Wide receiver Phillip Dorsett of Miami was selected 29th overall in the 2015 NFL draft.
Defensive end Bjoern Werner of Florida State was selected 24th overall in the 2013 NFL draft.
Offensive tackle Anthony Castonzo of Boston College was selected 22nd overall in the 2011 NFL draft.
Running back Donald Brown of Connecticut was selected 27th overall in the 2009 NFL draft.
Wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio State was selected 32nd overall in the 2007 NFL draft.
Defensive end Dwight Freeney of Syracuse was selected 11th overall in the 2002 NFL draft.
Wide receiver Reggie Wayne of Miami was selected 30th overall in the 2001 NFL draft.
Quarterback Peyton Manning of Tennessee was selected first overall in the 1998 NFL draft.
Offensive tackle Tarik Glenn of California was selected 19th overall in the 1997 NFL draft.
Wide receiver Marvin Harrison of Syracuse was selected 19th overall in the 1996 NFL draft.
Defensive tackle Ellis Johnson of Florida was selected 15th overall in the 1995 NFL draft.
Linebacker Trev Alberts of Nebraska was selected fifth overall in the 1994 NFL draft.
Wide receiver Sean Dawkins of California was selected 16th overall in the 1993 NFL draft.
Linebacker Quentin Coryatt of Texas A&M was selected second overall in the 1992 NFL draft.
Linebacker Cornelius Bennett of Alabama was selected second overall in the 1987 NFL draft.
Cornerback back Leonard Coleman of Vanderbilt was selected eighth overall in the 1984 NFL draft.
Guard Ron Solt (66) of Maryland was selected 19th overall in the 1984 NFL draft.
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Tight end Tyler Warren of Penn State was selected 14th overall in the 2025 NFL draft.
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Tight end Tyler Warren of Penn State was selected 14th overall in the 2025 NFL draft.
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Defensive end Laiatu Latu of UCLA was selected 15th overall in the 2024 NFL draft.
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Quarterback Anthony Richardson of Florida was selected fourth overall in the 2023 NFL draft.
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Defensive end Kwity Paye of Michigan was selected 21st overall in the 2022 NFL draft.
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Wide receiver Phillip Dorsett of Miami was selected 29th overall in the 2015 NFL draft.
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Defensive end Bjoern Werner of Florida State was selected 24th overall in the 2013 NFL draft.
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Offensive tackle Anthony Castonzo of Boston College was selected 22nd overall in the 2011 NFL draft.
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Running back Donald Brown of Connecticut was selected 27th overall in the 2009 NFL draft.
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Wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio State was selected 32nd overall in the 2007 NFL draft.
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Defensive end Dwight Freeney of Syracuse was selected 11th overall in the 2002 NFL draft.
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Wide receiver Reggie Wayne of Miami was selected 30th overall in the 2001 NFL draft.
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Quarterback Peyton Manning of Tennessee was selected first overall in the 1998 NFL draft.
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Offensive tackle Tarik Glenn of California was selected 19th overall in the 1997 NFL draft.
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Wide receiver Marvin Harrison of Syracuse was selected 19th overall in the 1996 NFL draft.
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Defensive tackle Ellis Johnson of Florida was selected 15th overall in the 1995 NFL draft.
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Linebacker Trev Alberts of Nebraska was selected fifth overall in the 1994 NFL draft.
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Wide receiver Sean Dawkins of California was selected 16th overall in the 1993 NFL draft.
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Linebacker Quentin Coryatt of Texas A&M was selected second overall in the 1992 NFL draft.
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Linebacker Cornelius Bennett of Alabama was selected second overall in the 1987 NFL draft.
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Cornerback back Leonard Coleman of Vanderbilt was selected eighth overall in the 1984 NFL draft.
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Guard Ron Solt (66) of Maryland was selected 19th overall in the 1984 NFL draft.
According to Sharp's schedule analysis and Las Vegas win projections, the Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs should plan on playing deep into January. On the other end, the Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals have little hope.
Joel A. Erickson and Nathan Brown cover the Colts all season. Get more coverage on IndyStarTV and with the Colts Insider newsletter.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Indianapolis Colts schedule strength, wins projections for 2026