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Despite average win projections, Indianapolis Colts' strength of schedule offers hope |
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Despite average win projections, Indianapolis Colts' strength of schedule offers hope TL;DR The Indianapolis Colts are projected to have an average of 8.5 wins, but their strength of schedule is ranked as the ninth-easiest, providing a potential pathway to the playoffs.
Key points Indianapolis Colts projected win total is 8.5 Colts have the ninth-easiest strength of schedule Colts went 9-8 in 2023 Colts had 8-9 records in the previous two seasons Strength of schedule may enhance playoff chances Mentioned in this story
Las Vegas sportsbooks
Despite average win projections, Indianapolis Colts' strength of schedule offers hope
Though the Indianapolis Colts have middling expectations, they have an opportunity to make a playoff run.
Sharp Football Analysis breaks down NFL schedule strengths for the coming season, placing the Colts with the ninth-easiest. That may give them a better chance to reach the postseason, even though Las Vegas sportsbooks largely put their projected win total at 8.5.
The Vegas projections make sense, considering they went 9-8 in 2023 and 8-9 the previous two seasons.
How Sharp Football Analysis rates NFL strength of schedule
Sharp notes that basing the coming season's schedule strength on the previous season's record is unreliable, and that taking into account offseason changes in personnel, coaches and injury status more accurately reflects a team's projected record and schedule strength. Sportsbooks, Sharp said, use that method.
Sharp adds that luck — such as tipped passes that result in interceptions and fumbles — that played into a team's previous season cannot be forecasted into the coming season's projection.
Why is this important? In 2025, just two of eight teams with the toughest schedules, according to Sharp, made the playoffs (Houston Texans , Los Angeles Rams ). That list included the Minnesota Vikings and the Kansas City Chiefs .
Q&A What is the Indianapolis Colts' projected win total for the upcoming season? The Indianapolis Colts are projected to have a win total of 8.5 for the upcoming season.
How does the Colts' strength of schedule compare to other NFL teams? The Colts have the ninth-easiest strength of schedule in the NFL for the coming season.
What were the Colts' records in the last three seasons? The Colts went 9-8 in 2023 and had records of 8-9 in both of the previous two seasons.
Can the Colts make a playoff run despite average win projections? Yes, the Colts have a chance to make a playoff run due to their favorable strength of schedule.
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Tight end Tyler Warren of Penn State was selected 14th overall in the 2025 NFL draft.
Defensive end Laiatu Latu of UCLA was selected 15th overall in the 2024 NFL draft.
Quarterback Anthony Richardson of Florida was selected fourth overall in the 2023 NFL draft.
Defensive end Kwity Paye of Michigan was selected 21st overall in the 2022 NFL draft.
Wide receiver Phillip Dorsett of Miami was selected 29th overall in the 2015 NFL draft.
Defensive end Bjoern Werner of Florida State was selected 24th overall in the 2013 NFL draft.
Offensive tackle Anthony Castonzo of Boston College was selected 22nd overall in the 2011 NFL draft.
Running back Donald Brown of Connecticut was selected 27th overall in the 2009 NFL draft.
Wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio State was selected 32nd overall in the 2007 NFL draft.
Defensive end Dwight Freeney of Syracuse was selected 11th overall in the 2002 NFL draft.
Wide receiver Reggie Wayne of Miami was selected 30th overall in the 2001 NFL draft.
Quarterback Peyton Manning of Tennessee was selected first overall in the 1998 NFL draft.
Offensive tackle Tarik Glenn of California was selected 19th overall in the 1997 NFL draft.
Wide receiver Marvin Harrison of Syracuse was selected 19th overall in the 1996 NFL draft.
Defensive tackle Ellis Johnson of Florida was selected 15th overall in the 1995 NFL draft.
Linebacker Trev Alberts of Nebraska was selected fifth overall in the 1994 NFL draft.
Wide receiver Sean Dawkins of California was selected 16th overall in the 1993 NFL draft.
Linebacker Quentin Coryatt of Texas A&M was selected second overall in the 1992 NFL draft.
Linebacker Cornelius Bennett of Alabama was selected second overall in the 1987 NFL draft.
Cornerback back Leonard Coleman of Vanderbilt was selected eighth overall in the 1984 NFL draft.
Guard Ron Solt (66) of Maryland was selected 19th overall in the 1984 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Tight end Tyler Warren of Penn State was selected 14th overall in the 2025 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Tight end Tyler Warren of Penn State was selected 14th overall in the 2025 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Defensive end Laiatu Latu of UCLA was selected 15th overall in the 2024 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Quarterback Anthony Richardson of Florida was selected fourth overall in the 2023 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Defensive end Kwity Paye of Michigan was selected 21st overall in the 2022 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Wide receiver Phillip Dorsett of Miami was selected 29th overall in the 2015 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Defensive end Bjoern Werner of Florida State was selected 24th overall in the 2013 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Offensive tackle Anthony Castonzo of Boston College was selected 22nd overall in the 2011 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Running back Donald Brown of Connecticut was selected 27th overall in the 2009 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio State was selected 32nd overall in the 2007 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Defensive end Dwight Freeney of Syracuse was selected 11th overall in the 2002 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Wide receiver Reggie Wayne of Miami was selected 30th overall in the 2001 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Quarterback Peyton Manning of Tennessee was selected first overall in the 1998 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Offensive tackle Tarik Glenn of California was selected 19th overall in the 1997 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Wide receiver Marvin Harrison of Syracuse was selected 19th overall in the 1996 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Defensive tackle Ellis Johnson of Florida was selected 15th overall in the 1995 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Linebacker Trev Alberts of Nebraska was selected fifth overall in the 1994 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Wide receiver Sean Dawkins of California was selected 16th overall in the 1993 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Linebacker Quentin Coryatt of Texas A&M was selected second overall in the 1992 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Linebacker Cornelius Bennett of Alabama was selected second overall in the 1987 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Cornerback back Leonard Coleman of Vanderbilt was selected eighth overall in the 1984 NFL draft.
The Colts have no 2026 first-round picks. Here's who Indianapolis drafted before Guard Ron Solt (66) of Maryland was selected 19th overall in the 1984 NFL draft.
2026 NFL strength of schedule, according to Warren Sharp, with projected win totals, according to Las Vegas sportsbooks
Detroit Lions, 10.5
New Orleans Saints , 7.5Cincinnati Bengals , 9.5Cleveland Browns , 6.5New York Jets , 5.5Baltimore Ravens, 11.5
Philadelphia Eagles, 10.5
San Francisco 49ers, 10.5
Indianapolis Colts , 8.5Kansas City Chiefs, 10.5
Denver Broncos , 9.5New England Patriots , 9.5Tennessee Titans , 6.5Buffalo Bills , 10.5Jacksonville Jaguars , 9.5Minnesota Vikings, 8.5
Green Bay Packers , 10.5Pittsburgh Steelers , 8.5Las Vegas Raiders , 5.5
Atlanta Falcons , 7.5Los Angeles Chargers , 10.5Seattle Seahawks , 10.5Tampa Bay Buccaneers , 8.5New York Giants , 7.5Washington Commanders , 7.5Houston Texans, 9.5
Chicago Bears , 9.5Los Angeles Rams, 11.5
Dallas Cowboys , 8.5Carolina Panthers , 6.5Miami Dolphins, 4.5
Arizona Cardinals, 4.5
