Detroit Lions projected to have easiest 2026 NFL schedule

Yahoo SportsYesterday3 min readOriginal source →

TL;DR

The Detroit Lions are projected to have the easiest schedule in the NFL for 2026, based on Vegas win totals. Their opponents averaged a .467 winning percentage last year, making them sixth-easiest by traditional metrics.

Key points

Lions projected to have easiest schedule in 2026 NFL season
Opponents averaged .467 winning percentage last year
Lions' schedule based on Vegas win totals shows easiest ranking
NFC North teams have varying schedule difficulties
Previous year's projections can be inaccurate

Detroit LionsChicago BearsGreen Bay PackersMinnesota Vikings

DETROIT,MICHIGAN-November 17: Fans arrive at Ford Field prior to the NFL football game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Detroit Lions in Detroit, Michigan USA, on Sunday, November 17, 2024 (Photo by Jorge Lemus/NurPhoto via Getty Images) | NurPhoto via Getty Images The 2026 NFL schedule release is expected sometime in May, but we already know the 17 opponents for the Detroit Lions. Based on a repeating formula, the Lions’ nine home opponents and eight road opponents have already been determined. And based on that, strength of schedule can be calculated before the official schedule even drops. The most common way to view strength of schedule is using last year’s record of each opponent. Based on that, the Lions are projected to have the sixth-easiest schedule—their opponents averaging a .467 winning percentage last year. However, after years of data collecting, studies have shown that last year’s record of opponent has not been a very good measure of predicting strength of schedule. That’s why Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis has starting using a different measure for strength of schedule: over/under win totals set by Vegas sportsbooks—or the projected wins for each team based on Vegas odds. Based on that data, the Lions’ 2026 schedule actually turns out to be easiest in the league. And that’s just the beginning of the good news for Lions fans. Because if you look at the rest of the NFC North, the Lions are far ahead of them all. The Vikings have the next easiest schedule at 16th, the are right behind them at 17th, and the Bears are actually set to have the sixth-*hardest* schedule in the NFL. This, of course, is exactly how the NFL schedule is designed to play out. The Bears finished first in the division last year, so they must face a first-place schedule—meaning three of their 2026 opponents (Eagles, Jaguars, ) are also division-winners from 2025. The Lions, on the other hand, finished last in the NFC North last year, so a three-game portion of their schedule is filled with teams that finished last in their division (Giants, Titans, Cardinals). Of course, no method is fool-proof when determining strength of schedule, because there are so many unknowns at this point in the offseason. Even Sharp’s methods can turn out to be very inaccurate for Detroit. Just last year, . It turned out to be the 21st toughest. So, in short, take all of this with a grain of salt.

Q&A

What factors determine the Detroit Lions' 2026 NFL schedule strength?

The strength of the Lions' 2026 schedule is determined by the previous year's records of their opponents and projected win totals set by Vegas sportsbooks.

How does the Lions' schedule compare to other NFC North teams in 2026?

The Lions have the easiest schedule in the league, while the Vikings rank 16th, the Packers 17th, and the Bears face the sixth-hardest schedule.

What was the Lions' schedule ranking last year compared to the 2026 projection?

Last year, the Lions' schedule was projected to be the third-toughest but ended up being the 21st toughest, highlighting the unpredictability of schedule strength assessments.