Do Mets have closer concern brewing? How Devin Williams can bounce back from recent skid

The Mets have no plans of taking Williams out of the closer role right now, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza confirmed before Wednesday night’s streak-busting victory. He said New York hasn’t even discussed it.

Williams wasn’t summoned to close out Wednesday’s win because he pitched in two of the previous three days. Luke Weaver stayed in and recorded the final three outs, earning the win in the process.

Even if Williams bounces back in his next few games, he still won’t have the trust of a chunk of the Mets fan base. There were underlying metrics that suggest Williams was much better than his surface-level numbers with the Yankees a year ago, but it’s hard for many to look beyond all the implosions in big spots.

Looking under the hood again, in a small sample size of eight outings to begin this season, there are a few discouraging trends to keep an eye on.

Opposing batters are hitting .467 against Williams’ changeup with an expected batting average of .292. To put those numbers into perspective, Williams held opponents to a .097 average (and .149 xBA) over a full season in 2023, his last full season in Milwaukee. Even last year, Williams pitched to a .194 opposing batting average with his changeup. That’s been his best pitchm and it’s not getting the same caliber of results thus far.

It doesn’t stop there. Williams’ strikeout rate is down to a career-low of 30.6 percent. Opponents have a 10.5 barrel rate against him, a career-high. Hitters are driving the ball in the air more than ever (31.6 pull-air percentage) and walking more than ever (16.7 percent walk rate). It can’t help that his average fastball velocity is lower than ever before as well (93.4 mph). He’s using his heater more often this year.

Conversely, Williams is once again getting burned by batted ball luck. Nearly 40 percent of the batted balls in play against him have been flares and burners. His .588 batting average on balls in play indicates that he’s been getting unlucky at an unsustainable clip. That BABIP is the fourth-highest mark for any pitcher who has thrown more than five innings this season as of Wednesday night.

In a recent conversation with Williams at his locker, the closer told NJ.com that attacking hitters and maintaining confidence in his stuff were keys to his success to begin the year.

What is interesting, however, is that Williams hasn’t used his slider or cutter yet, the pair of pitches he was working on incorporating this spring.

Remember how Williams’ new pitches were a talking point going back to this past offseason? It was something Williams discussed as early as his introductory presser when he signed with the Mets in free agency. He wanted to mix in a few new weapons so that hitters would have more speeds and shapes to deal with and they couldn’t sit back on his changeup.

To this point, Williams has exclusively used his fastball and changeup.

Mets pitching coach Justin Willard recently explained that Williams hasn’t thrown a slider or cutter yet because he’s still refining those offerings. It’s a challenge to work on new pitches in games when every time Williams’ number is called as the closer, he’s pitching in high-leverage spots with the game usually on the line.

“Not overly concerned that he hasn’t thrown them yet,” Willard said. “You don’t want to lose a game on your worst pitch, so I would say he’s close and now it’s just finding those moments to really kind of test those out and see hitters’ reactions.”

Maybe those pitches can help him bounce back from this recent rut? It could be the key in taking the pressure and focus away from his changeup.

“He will do it when he feels like it’s the right time,” Rosado added. “I would not be surprised at any time that he goes out there and starts working on things that we are practicing, but that’s something that’s gotta be on him, when he feels conviction about those things that we’ve practiced.”

When asked about the plan to sprinkle in his new pitches, Williams didn’t want to reveal any secrets. That’s like giving away his scouting report.

“I don’t want that information out there,” Williams said. “It’s feeling good. It’s doing what it needs to do. It’ll be there when I need it.”

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