Early favorites + dark horses for 2026 WNBA awards
Check out the early favorites and dark horses for the 2026 WNBA awards!
The Buffalo Bills' run defense was ranked 28th in the league, allowing 136.2 yards per game. They struggled significantly on third-and-short situations, with a 96% conversion rate against them on 3rd & 1.
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Youāre likely used to seeing some of the stats on the Buffalo Bills defense and specifically run defense. Like how they allowed 136.2 yards per game, 28th in the league. Or worse yet, their 20th ranked yards per play allowed sitting at 5.14 yards per attempt. Iām going to level with everyone though. Iām OK with a few big runs making those numbers look worse. Iām fine with a subpar rushing yards per attempt or game stat. Not THIS subpar mind you, but run defense isnāt my big priority. For context into that thought process, as bad as those numbers are, the Buffalo Bills were only 1.5 points per game allowed away from average. Let me clarify that further, thatās 1.5 points allowed LESS than league average, aka on the right side of average. They ranked 12th in that metric which most experts tell me is pretty important. They were 13th in points per drive and less than two percentage points away from perfectly average when it comes to third-down conversion rate. Weāll come back to conversion rate in a moment. The point Iām getting at is even one of their worst run defenses in the entire McDermott era did not tank the entire team defense. It merely resulted in average play. So about that third-down conversion rate⦠OK, what the heck is that chart? As noted above, I donāt mind subpar rushing defense, but one thing that will always bother me is giving up conversions on third down. So when a team is particularly bad at this, itās a big deal to me. The Bills were particularly bad when it came to run defense on third and short. That was pretty easy to determine. Take a look at the highlighted Bills line and see the 96% conversion rate against them on 3rd & 1 situations. Buffalo only stopped one 3rd & 1 rush attempt in the entire regular season. Thatās not a bad reflection of their total 3rd & 1 performance either as teams only attempted a pass three times (sixth fewest attempts against in the NFL). The 3rd & 1 is the most important set of numbers here as the other distances donāt have anywhere near as many data points for most teams. I point that out because you might think that a rush on 3rd & 1 is pretty automatic. Not so. Those scenarios equated to an average league-wide conversion rate of 72%, but the Bills were abhorrent in this area. On 3rd & 2 and 3rd & 3, while the data points are few enough where validity starts to tank, you still canāt hide the fact that Buffalo was simply not good at defending āand shortā situations against the run when it truly mattered. So how did Buffaloās third-down conversion rate end up pretty average? Shockingly enough, the Bills forced more āand longā situations than I would have figured. The most common distance for rushing attempts against Buffalo was 3rd & 1 with 23 attempts. At six attempts against them, 3rd & 2 was the second-most common distance. Now compare that to 3rd & 10 or longer. Buffalo forced 58 attempts at 3rd & long. Pass attempts beyond 3rd & 5 for Buffalo were largely a success. No distance beyond 5 yards had greater than a 43% success rate. The Sean McDermott era is now in the past with the Joe Brady tenure just beginning with defensive coordinator likely to bring change. I donāt need him to bring a dominant run defense with him, but I sure as heck wouldnāt mind a massive improvement on third and short.
The Buffalo Bills ranked 28th in the league for run defense in 2025, allowing 136.2 yards per game.
The Bills had a 96% conversion rate against them on 3rd & 1 situations, stopping only one rush attempt in the entire regular season.
Despite their poor run defense, the Bills ranked 12th in points allowed per game and 13th in points per drive.
The new defensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills is Jim Leonhard, who is expected to bring changes to the defense.
Check out the early favorites and dark horses for the 2026 WNBA awards!
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