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Morez Johnson Jr., a key player for Michigan basketball, is likely to remain in the NBA Draft rather than return for the 2026-27 season. Sources suggest there is a 75% chance he will not be back at Michigan next year.
As Michigan basketball navigates the transfer portal to put the finishing touches its 2026-27 roster, one starter from the national championship team remains in the balance.
Morez Johnson Jr., the starting power forward who finished on the All-Big Ten defensive team, has been in Los Angeles gathering intel about his potential NBA future. There's a wide expectation his frontcourt running mate, Aday Mara, will enter the 2026 NBA Draft after he laid out the factors in his decision earlier this month to the Free Press, but Johnson has seemed more likely to return.
But those hopes may be dwindling.
"Somewhere in the [range of], I would say 75% chance he stays in draft would be my guess," a person with knowledge of the situation told the Free Press on condition of anonymity on Thursday, April 22. "I don't expect him to be at Michigan next year, unfortunately."
The staff remains in constant contact with Johnson and his camp, as at least one member of the staff has spoken with Johnson every day since the season ended. This hasn't just been on the recruiting front but as "friends, mentors" as he remains in team-affiliated group chats.
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Johnson finished second on U-M scoring 13.1 points last season and led the program with 7.3 rebounds per game. He was one of three U-M players to play and start all 40 games for the Wolverines last season as he expanded his game in a variety of ways.
Johnson has commented on a few social media posts, like Mara's, where he said "ONE MORE YEAR," which has led to external hope that he would return. While no decision has been made on that front, behind the scenes, Michigan is preparing for life without Johnson.
"He's going through the process like he wants to stay in the NBA," the person told the Free Press. "But he's also, he knows this will be certainly be a great option for him if he wants to come back to college."
There is a 75% chance that Morez Johnson Jr. will remain in the NBA Draft and not return to Michigan.
Morez Johnson Jr. is gathering information about his potential NBA future, which is influencing his decision to possibly stay in the draft.
Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara are key players, with Mara expected to enter the 2026 NBA Draft.
The Michigan basketball staff remains in constant contact with Johnson, providing support as friends and mentors throughout his decision-making process.
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Michigan head coach Dusty May speaks with Michigan forward Morez Johnson Jr. (21) in the first half of their Final Four game against Arizona at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Saturday, April 4, 2026.
Johnson would be well compensated if he returns to Michigan. While an exact dollar figure of a potential contract was not disclosed, the Free Press was told U-M would match the ballpark of where Johnson is expected to be drafted upon a return.
On multiple mock drafts, Johnson has been pegged as a late first-round selection, roughly around pick No. 27. That's where U-M big Danny Wolf was drafted last season and per Spotrac, the slot value of the selection last season was $2.8 million.
The only difference? Johnson would sign a four-year deal as a rookie entering the NBA, where as with Michigan, it would likely be just one season with him almost certainly to declare for the NBA the following season.
"He can take the money out of the decision, at least for next year," the person said.
A declaration for the draft would not lock him into the league next year, but all parties know an initial decision will need to be made soon. The 2026 NBA Draft entry deadline for early entrants is April 24, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET.
Anybody who wishes to retain their college eligibility must withdraw by May 27, 2026.
Michigan Wolverines forward Morez Johnson Jr. (21) dunks in the first half against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor on Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2026.
Johnson will almost certainly, at minimum, test the waters. What happens after that is still up in the air, but he has been told in no uncertain terms if he wants to return to Michigan, the program will be greeting him with open arms.
"He knows this much that he has a spot here whenever he wants it," the source said. "We'll see, you know, let him go through [the process], he's earned it. Obviously he's given us more than we could ever imagined, so we feel it's our duty to [let him do that]."
Tony Garcia is the Michigan beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: 'Don't expect' Morez Johnson Jr. back at Michigan next year