Early Starts for the NL East

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - APRIL 12: Dominic Smith #8 of the Atlanta Braves reacts after hitting a two run home run during the fourth inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Truist Park on April 12, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) | Getty Images

We spend all season covering the Phillies, their strengths, weaknesses, and storylines that will make up their season.

What isn’t always discussed is how other teams are doing, especially the teams around them, that can dictate how their season could play out.

The general theory for this series is that if you want to cover the 2026 Phillies properly, you have to cover what is around them as well.

The National League East is in a weird and fun state. The Braves are betting that 2025 was a fluke, the Nationals have begun a full-scale rebuild, the Marlins surprised people last year and might be ahead of schedule, and the New York Mets had as crazy an off-season as anyone can remember.

Atlanta Braves are full of surprises

The Braves are looking to prove their disastrous 2025 season was because of injuries and bad luck, not anything to worry about long-term. They carry themselves like a World Series contender but haven’t won the division the or a single playoff game in the last two seasons.

The off-season Spring training injuries also seemed like a death sentence for them. Ha-Seong Kim broke a finger tendon ice skating, Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep needed elbow surgery, Joey Wentz tore his ACL, and Spencer Strider strained his oblique. This is on top of Sean Murphy and Joe Jiménez missing the beginning of 2026 because of injuries from last season.

So if you mention all of that, then add on that the first 17 games have seen Ronald Acuña Jr. looking mostly mediocre and Austin Riley ice cold, it would make for an ugly start to the Braves season right?

Not so fast, they’re 10-7 with one of the best offenses in baseball, ranking third in wRC+, second in batting average, and second in slugging. The starting pitching has been ok outside of Bryce Elder, but the offense has slugged their way to first place early on.

Matt Olson and Drake Baldwin are leading the way as expected but they’ve gotten several role players to play key roles early on. Dominic Smith, someone who wasn’t supposed to make the team until Jurickson Profar got suspended, is hitting .353 with a 1.025 OPS.

Mauricio Dubon, acquired from the Houston Astros for Nick Allen, is hitting .339 with a .923 OPS. Jorge Mateo has generated offense when he’s gotten chances off the bench and so has Kyle Farmer.

So, as some of the stars have struggled, Acuña with a 104 OPS+ and Riley at 72, they’ve seen almost every other role player carry the weight.

While this is not going to last for them over 162 games, Dubon and Smith aren’t going to win batting titles or MVP trophies, there are still reasons to believe they can maintain the hot start at the plate.

Acuña and Riley will get going, Sean Murphy was set to begin his rehab assignment yesterday, and Ha-Seong Kim could be back in the middle of May. They should be good for reinforcements as some of the role players cool off.

While the results haven’t been there for Michael Harris II, there is a good process going on. It’s a small sample size but his barrel rate has increased by 7.2% and he is hitting the ball a lot harder. He was considered the Braves big lineup X-factor coming into the season and there are good signs for a rebound 2026.

The pitching staff is a different question mark. The leverage arms in Raisel Iglesias and Robert Suarez have looked good but the starting pitching staff looks depleted because of the injuries. Adding Strider back should help but Bryce Elder probably won’t hold up a 1.03 ERA the entire year.

The Marlins can hit?

Going into the season, it seemed like the Marlins profiled as a pesky offense at best with a strong pitching staff. However, baseball can get weird.

Jakob Marsee hasn’t broken out yet like Marlins fans have hoped for but there have been others. Owen Caissie looks like a strong get from the Cubs early on with a .822 OPS, Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards have looked great up the middle, and Connor Norby is off to a hot start.

The pitching staff has been weird. Sandy Alcantara looks like a front-line starter again with more than a full year removed from elbow surgery but the rest hasn’t been great. Eury Pérez is walking too many hitters, Janson Junk and Max Meyer have looked fine in the middle of their rotation and Chris Paddack is bad.

The bullpen has been weird, too. Pete Fairbanks and Anthony Bender haven’t looked great as leverage guys but John King has looked great in five scoreless innings. Again, it’s still mid-April.

Given some of the unsustainable nature of their offensive results and how the pitching staff has looked, it might look more like a fun early season story than something bigger.

Nationals Rebuild

Griff McGarry did not make the Nationals but Joey Wiemer did and he’s hitting .364 with a 1.068 OPS. Their pitching staff is a mess but James Wood looks like a star.

As the season goes on, it will be more important for the Nationals to figure out who can be flipped to help the future or who can be building blocks for the next run.

CJ Abrams looks more like a piece that gets moved at the deadline. He’s only 25 but has already spent over three seasons in the big leagues. If he can sort of keep up his 191 OPS+ start, he could look like a nice player on a better team.

It’s early and I think the Mets are going to be good… however…

Francisco Lindor needed hamate surgery and has a .541 OPS to begin the year. Bo Bichette is playing a new position and it’s probably part of why he has a .569 OPS. Polanco has been battling an Achilles injury and can only DH. He’s at a .571 OPS. Juan Soto is hurt.

The Mets offense is going through it right now. Carson Benge cannot hit velocity now, Brett Baty is cold, Marcus Semien is cold.

Here is a better way to phrase it, if you’re not Francisco Alvarez and Luis Robert Jr, you’re either hurt or not hitting.

The pitching side hasn’t been amazing either in their 7-10 start. Freddy Peralta has given up some homers, David Peterson has looked bad, and Kodai Senga had a disaster start against the Cardinals. Luke Weaver has looked bad out of the bullpen and they called up Craig Kimbrel a few days ago. It’s not looking great.

This could be the low point of the Mets season. If it came in mid-June after a good two months, is anyone seriously talking about it? Who knows.

However, they play the Dodgers two more times and then the Cubs for three games. This start could get a bit uglier if things don’t pick up.

Given some of the stakes for them after missing the playoffs last season and having a demanding owner, they might want things to get better sooner rather than later.