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Elder looks to get pitching back on track in rubber game
TL;DR
Bryce Elder is set to pitch in the rubber game against the Marlins after a mixed performance in his last outing. The Braves' pitching staff has faced challenges recently, allowing 15 runs in two games despite previously strong run prevention metrics.
ATLANTA, GA - APRIL 10: Bryce Elder #55 of the Atlanta Braves pitches in the first inning during the game against the Cleveland Guardians at Truist Park on April 10, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Jack Casey/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Bravesâ run prevention was really good coming into this series. Through Sundayâs win over Cleveland, the Braves had a league-best 59 ERA-, a sixth-in-MLB 89 FIP-, and a pedestrian 99 xFIP-. The pitching performance was just okay, but a combination of favorable HR/FB stuff (yay, the universe owes them for last season) and top-three defensive play cured pretty much every ill.
And then, the Marlins came to town. They blasted the Braves with BABIP, homers, and everything in between in the first game. Grant Holmes came in with a 63/110/115 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-), and was dealt a 166/78/94 outing by the vagaries of fate and the Marlinsâ bats. Basically: he didnât pitch well but the team kept runs off the board, and then he pitched okay and the runs piled up on him anyway. Reynaldo Lopez came in with a 28/128/112 line, and was dealt a 133/63/89 start, which was pretty much the exact same outcome (except that no reliever hung a curve for a three-run homer and the Braves won). The Braves are still first in ERA-, and sixth in FIP-, but theyâve moved up to tenth in xFIP- while having 15 runs dumped on them in two games. The Marlins, meanwhile, have continued doing what theyâve done so far this season â they have a top-ten wOBA and bottom ten xwOBA, have the leagueâs biggest favorable variance in this regard, and if youâve watched these first two games, you get it: holy every grounder finds a hole, Batman!
So, now weâve got Bryce Elder lined up for the rubber game. Elderâs line? 25/73/86. Thatâs better, worlds better, than the frankly-subpar pre-Marlins performances of Holmes and Lopez, but the same giant run prevention gap applies. Thereâs added intrigue, too. Elder was brilliant in his first two outings of the year, showing a completely different approach to pitching and a much more exaggerated (and effective, and not all over the place, or mechanically problematic for long stretches) slider. Then, he faced the Guardians, and it was⊠if not Bad Elder, at least, Unremarkable Elder. But, honestly, nah â he was bad. A 3/3 K/BB ratio and his first homer allowed (a no-doubter). In essence, the Elder âregressionâ that everyone feared.
So, whatâs Elder going to do now? In the first two games of this series, the Marlins upended things and drove a dagger into the positioning-and-defense run prevention the Braves had used as their aegis to this point. His career against the Marlins has been a mixed bag â better starts (but with some clunkers mixed in) through 2024, and then two struggle bugs in 2025. Not that it really matters, this might be a different Elder at this point. Or, it might be the same old Elder, based on his most recent start. I have no idea. I donât think anyone does, including Bryce Elder. Weâll see what happens.
Countering Elder in this rubber game will be Chris Paddack, who signed a one-year, $4 million contract to pitch in Miami in the offseason. Paddackâs 2026 experience has been the opposite of that for the Braves thus far (except in this series): he has a 150/125/97 line in two starts and a relief appearance. He had a bizarre Marlins debut (6/0 K/BB ratio, but two homers and eight runs charged), then a blergh long relief appearance (4/4 K/BB ratio) where he was charged with just a single unearned run, and then a mixed bag start against the Tigers (4/1 K/BB ratio, a homer. Paddack has pitched pretty well against the Braves in his career (3.36 FIP, 4.14 xFIP), but itâs just a handful of outings spread across the now-kinda-long arc of his career. The Braves didnât do much against him in two outings last year, but that was kind of par for the course for them.
Game Info
**Game Date/Time:**Wednesday, April 15, 7:15 p.m. EDT
Location:Â Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV:Â BravesVision
Streaming:Â MLB.tv (and Braves.tv if youâre in-market, etc.)
Radio:Â 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM
(Also, a moment of silence for the hilarious readout on the MLB.com preview that lists the Marlinsâ TV provider as Marlins.TV, presented by Werner, Hoffman, Greig & Garcia. Between this and the clown show that is the forced spelling of loanDepot Park, please contract the Marlins and open a more serious franchise somewhere.)
Q&A
What were Bryce Elder's pitching stats before the game against the Marlins?
Before facing the Marlins, Bryce Elder had a line of 25/73/86, indicating a better performance compared to his teammates.
How did the Braves' pitching perform against the Marlins in the first two games?
In the first two games against the Marlins, the Braves allowed 15 runs, with pitchers Grant Holmes and Reynaldo Lopez struggling despite the team's overall strong ERA and FIP rankings.
What changes did Bryce Elder show in his early outings this season?
In his first two outings, Bryce Elder displayed a different pitching approach with a more effective slider, contrasting with his less impressive performance against the Guardians.
What is the significance of the rubber game for the Braves and Bryce Elder?
The rubber game is crucial for the Braves to bounce back after two tough losses, and it represents an opportunity for Bryce Elder to regain his early-season form after a disappointing outing.
