ESPN 2026 ROY Predictions: Raiders QB Fernando Mendoza OROY favorite

TL;DR

Las Vegas Raiders QB Fernando Mendoza is the early favorite for the 2026 Offensive Rookie of the Year award after being selected first overall in the NFL Draft. Despite strong competition from other rookies, Mendoza's starting role is crucial for his success.

Key points

Mendoza was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
He is regarded as the top prospect in this year's class.
Mendoza had 3,535 passing yards and 41 touchdowns last season.

Las Vegas RaidersFernando MendozaKirk CousinsC.J. Stroud

The Las Vegas Raiders took Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, and was regarded, by in large, as the top prospect in this year’s class, but many other incoming rookies landed in favorable situations that prime them to have prolific seasons in 2026. According to ESPN’s Ben Solak, Mendoza is the early favorite to win next year’s OROY award.

As a general rule, quarterbacks who start the majority of the season (and produce) win the award over spectacular seasons from non-quarterbacks. In 2023, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud and Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua had excellent rookie seasons, but Nacua's campaign was legitimately record-setting, as his 105 receptions and 1,486 yards were marks for rookie receivers. The yardage record had stood for 63 years before Nacua broke it!

Yet Stroud didn't just win the award. He dominated Nacua, securing 48 of 50 first-place votes. Similarly, in 2019, Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (with modest stats but 16 starts) beat out Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (with great production but only 13 games) for the title. Identifying early-season starters at quarterback is the quickest path to finding Offensive Rookie of the Year favorites.

Mendoza went for 3,535 passing yards and 41 passing touchdowns last season at Indiana, helping lead him to win the Heisman Trophy.

Mendoza is the Raiders’ next franchise quarterback. However, his path to a prolific next season may have a roadblock.

Kirk Cousins’ presence in Las Vegas has the potential to put Mendoza at a disadvantage, in the event that the Raiders opt to play Cousins as their bridge quarterback in 2026. Nevertheless, Mendoza as the starter in Las Vegas has the potential to outshine his rookie peers next season.

Q&A

Why is Fernando Mendoza favored to win the 2026 OROY award?

Fernando Mendoza is favored to win the 2026 OROY award due to his status as the No. 1 overall pick and his impressive college performance, including 3,535 passing yards and 41 touchdowns.

What challenges might Fernando Mendoza face in his rookie season?

Mendoza may face challenges if the Raiders choose to start veteran Kirk Cousins as their bridge quarterback, potentially limiting Mendoza's playing time.

How do starting quarterbacks typically influence OROY outcomes?

Starting quarterbacks who play the majority of the season generally have a better chance of winning the OROY award compared to non-quarterbacks, as seen in previous award outcomes.