ESPN analyst projects Matthew Stafford to lead NFL in TD passes again

Matthew Stafford led the NFL in touchdown passes for the first time in his career last season. He tossed a career-best 46 touchdowns during his MVP season in 2025, which was only his third season with more than 33 touchdown passes.

With Davante Adams becoming a red zone cheat code and Puka Nacua on the other side, Stafford found a groove near the goal line and consistently found open receivers in the end zone.

ESPN’s Mike Clay predicts that will continue in 2026. In his season projections for every player, Clay has Stafford leading the NFL in touchdown passes once again, only this time with a much lower total than he had last year.

He projects Stafford to throw 35 touchdown passes, two more than Joe Burrow and five more than Dak Prescott. Those are the only three quarterbacks with at least 30 scores in Clay’s projections.

Leading the league with only 35 touchdown passes seems unlikely, given the high-octane passing attacks there are around the NFL, but it's not unheard of. Prescott topped the league with only 36 in 2023, as did Lamar Jackson in 2019. Russell Wilson had just 34 as the league leader in 2017, too.

Stafford must stay healthy if he wants to go back-to-back for the touchdown crown, and Sean McVay will need to continue leaning on Stafford's arm rather than Kyren Williams' and 's legs in the red zone.