Everton vs Man City: Opposition Analysis | Can the Guardiola Juggernaut Be Halted?

Form

It’s been a relatively familiar campaign for the serial-winners, following an uncharacteristic slump last season, in that they’ve gradually gathered momentum to mount a late title charge, chasing down front-runners **Arsenal**. A decision to not spend ahead of the 2024/25 season, coinciding with the loss of key man Rodri, hurt Pep Guardiola’s all-conquering team unexpectedly hard, resulting in a third-place finish, despite some heavy corrective spending (just shy of €220m) in the January transfer window. It’s safe to say that was not repeated last summer! City splashed out big money on the likes of Tijjani Reijnders, Rayan Cherki, Rayan Aït-Nouri and the goalkeeping pair of Gianluigi Donnarumma and James Trafford. A sizeable amount was recouped in the sale of a number of fringe or unwanted players, but it was noticeable that a squad refresh was underway, with the exit of ageing, former integral men in Kevin De Bruyne, Kyle Walker, İlkay Gündoğan and Ederson, alongside a couple of slightly younger types in Jack Grealish and – perhaps more surprisingly – Manuel Akanji. So did this rejuvenation of the side bring immediate benefits? The answer to that question is: yes, in that they’ve appeared a stronger, more cohesive team, but improvements have been more gradual, meaning they’ve been playing catch-up domestically, whilst not looking quite as powerful in the Champions League.

Team Assessment

Guardiola is universally considered to be one of the most influential figures in the development of football in the modern era, popularising his highly-structured brand of offensive possession-play, combined with effective pressing off the ball, something which has become much-admired, even ubiquitous across the game in recent years. However, unlike many of his imitators, the 55-year-old Basque has constantly sought to experiment with new ideas, some of which have caught opponents off-balance, such as his use of inverted fullbacks, and his sudden change to using a conventional – even “old-school” number nine – in Erling Haaland over the past four seasons. Unsurprisingly, City lead the division in both share of possession (60.4%) and pass completion (88.5%), and generate the third-most number of shots per 90 minutes (15.2). They attempt only 6.4% long passes per game, as they seek to wear opponents down, both mentally and physically, with ball control, constantly probing, stretching the pitch wide, and looking to move opposition players out of position. The visitors lead the league in goals from both open-play goals and counterattacks. They defend all situations very well, and allow only 9.8 efforts on goal per 90. Donnarumma will guard the visitors’ nets. The Italian giant is a formidable presence who saves 72.8% of the shots he’s faced in the league. Signed three years ago to play midfield, Matheus Nunes was converted to right back midway through last season and has provided energy and running power down that flank. On the left, Aït-Nouri has been alternating with Nico O’Reilly recently; both are excellent going forward. City have two starting-calibre centre halves currently injured, in Rúben Dias and Josko Gvardiol, but in their place will be big January signing Marc Guehi, alongside Abdukodir Khusanov. Everton-linked pair John Stones and Nathan Aké should remain firmly on the bench. Take note, Blues hierarchy!

Prediction

There has been plenty of grumbling in the ranks of the Everton faithful since the defeat to West Ham, probably not helped by the Hammers subsequently being handily dispatched 3-0 by Euro-rivals Brentford on Saturday. Whilst the slump in form, at this last stage of the campaign, has been untimely, such is the congested nature of the division this term that hopes of qualification for – at least – the Conference League, are not yet off the table. Even defeat tonight would not put the final nail in that particular coffin. Still, games are running out, and whilst the Blues headed into the break in March having won three from four, it is also true that the team has lost five of nine, as they await City. Given the strength and form of the opposition, that could easily end up as six defeats in ten by the game’s conclusion, which is hardly the kind of run that offers much optimism of a rousing finish to the campaign, and European qualification, something which David Moyes was happy to talk up again during the prematch press conference, somewhat paradoxically reversing his stance from the previous week, despite another defeat. I’m really puzzled by this flip-flopping in the narrative. Should fans be dissatisfied, or thankful for what’s been a solid season, after years of instability, incluidng flirtations with relegation? That’s something to be considered for a future column. Be warned!