Experience Tells Us Longshot Pavlovian Could Stun The Kentucky Derby

Pavlovian (inside) fought all the way to the wire before losing the Louisiana Derby by a head to Emerging Market.. Hodges Photography/Amanda Hodges Weir

Hodges photography

Pavlovian will likely be a big longshot when he enters the starting gates for Kentucky Derby 152 on May 2. History tells us, longshots do win the world’s most famous race. Since the turn of the century in 2000, twelve horses have won at odds of 10 to 1 or better and four at odds of 50 to 1 or better have emerged victorious. The last post time favorite to win was 2018 (Justify) so that means a horse like this Doug O’Neill trainee could easily create a very nice return on an investment at the window at Churchill Downs. Having been in a couple of recent street fights in Derby qualifying races, Pavlovian looks to have a haymaker’s chance.

Recent Races On Kentucky Derby Trail Have Displayed Maturity And Toughness

Pavlovian punched his ticket to Churchill with a gutsy second place finish in the Louisiana Derby back on March 21. Eclipsed by Emerging Market by a head at the wire, this California-bred son of Pavel had been on the lead throughout this mile and three sixteenths journey around the Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans. Running with courage throughout, when the favored Emerging Market came alongside at the sixteenth pole, Pavlovian refused to quit and fought to the wire.

Prior to the Fair Grounds fisticuffs, Pavlovian had engaged in brawl in the Sunland Park Derby. In this race, O’Neill’s charge had again broke well from the gate but ran just behind a heavily favored Express Kid. Rolling down the stretch with authority, this grandson of Bellamy Road again battled to the wire, but this time the head bob went in his favor as he got the photo. That win secured Kentucky Derby qualifying points and told his trainer he deserved consideration for a shot on a bigger stage.

“He is a horse that has always had a mature body as his size and muscularity have been there”, says O’Neill. “He needed to figure things out mentally and in those last two races he has really shown a lot more maturity.”

Pavlovian’s Experience Suggest He’s Ready For The Kentucky Derby

A homebred for Reddam Racing, Pavlovian has been no stranger to the racetrack as he has now been to the starting gates ten times at five different tracks. In those starts, he has two wins, four second place finishes, and one third. That experience along with a willingness to fight could make him a dangerous dude when those twenty horses are running that mile and a quarter on Kentucky Derby day.