Fabio Wardley vs Daniel Dubois prediction: Who will win and how

He won the English title in 2020 in the Matchroom back garden. He won the British title at Wembley Arena in 2022. He added the Commonwealth title a bit less than a year later.

And he wasn’t just beating guys like Simon Vallily, Nick Webb, Nathan Gorman, and David Adeleye, who are all fine domestic-level heavyweights. He was crushing them. Experienced amateur and ex-Olympian Frazer Clarke gave Wardley his first real test in 2024, pushing to a 12-round draw and coming off the canvas to get there. On the one hand, Clarke didn’t crumble. On the other hand, though, neither did Fabio Wardley. When they rematched over six months later, Wardley stopped Clarke in the first round.

Neither did Wardley fall apart when Justis Huni, a very good, skilled boxer, built a huge lead over nine rounds in their 2025 fight at Portman Road. Wardley knocked Huni out in the 10th round. He added the interim WBO title by stopping former titleholder and highly-rated contender Joseph Parker four months after that. He was elevated to full title status after that, when Oleksandr Usyk vacated the WBO belt.

Wardley has not been “found out.” He’s just kept getting better. His power carries late into fights. His skills have improved, even if he’ll never be an Usyk or a Tyson Fury from a technical perspective or with the tactical mind of someone who’s been doing this since childhood. Wardley is dangerous against anyone, and he’s dangerous until the final bell has sounded. Wardley is not the blueprint of a successful pro boxer, but it’s clear that he’s built for this at the highest levels. He doesn’t lose heart and he doesn’t fold.

Daniel Dubois’ recent form

Dubois (22-3, 21 KO) has question marks. No one doubts his power or the fact that he can compete at that top level. He’s been a titlist, he’s knocked out Anthony Joshua, he’s stopped Filip Hrgovic, and he had a pretty controversial first loss to Oleksandr Usyk, albeit the rematch last July was all Usyk.

Dubois did have an amateur career. He came through the more traditional paths. He also turned pro in 2017, and it didn’t take long for promoter Frank Warren to tell everyone he was a future star. Dubois also won the English title, the British title, the Commonwealth title. The main difference between Dubois and Wardley, as far as their pro careers, comes from expectation. Dubois was sold as a blue chipper, a future world champion. Wardley was just not expected to get to those levels. Dubois was.

The first cracks came in late 2020, when Dubois was aggressively matched against Joe Joyce. Joyce and Dubois were both undefeated at the time, and it was a big fight to be making behind closed doors, a risky one. Joyce had a much bigger amateur career, and whatever his flaws, the man’s head is a cinder block and he was known to be tough as nails with a great engine.

Joyce fractured Dubois’ eye socket, and Dubois took the 10-count in round 10. At the time of the stoppage, Dubois led on two cards (86-85 and 88-83) and trailed on the third (84-87). The fight was starting to go Joyce’s way. The injury hit. Dubois decided to fight another day.

Since it’s boxing, that drew a mixed reaction, to put it kindly. Forget the fans or the media, there were plenty of fellow fighters who felt Dubois quit and revealed that he lacked the grit and courage to be truly great.

Dubois, to his credit, didn’t seem to let it bother him too much, taking the criticism as what it was and, a little over six months later, getting back in the ring. He won four straight fights before the loss to Usyk, which included a borderline body shot that put the Ukrainian down, ruled a low blow by referee Luis Pabon. Usyk came back to stop Dubois in the ninth round. While some felt Dubois had been given the shaft, others thought the end result was another indication that he didn’t have the resilience boxing at the elite level calls for from its combatants.

The run of stoppage wins over “Big Baby” Miller, Hrgovic, and Anthony Joshua earned him the IBF heavyweight title and another shot at Usyk. That time, Usyk fought to prove a point, and took Dubois apart in such a clear and emphatic way that there’s just not much more to say about it.

Dubois has three losses, yes, and plenty of doubters with their reasons. But he’s also, like Wardley, a dangerous man, heavy-handed and strong, and one thing you can take from Dubois’ losses is that he doesn’t seem to fear losing, which can be a great strength for a fighter. He hasn’t fallen apart after any of them. He hasn’t let losing beat him.

Who will win Wardley vs Dubois?

Whether or not Dubois is or will go down as a great fighter is not the question on Saturday. Saturday is just about Saturday. The job is to beat Fabio Wardley on that night in Manchester. Same from Wardley’s side, who knows how much longer this amazing run can last? Time will tell us the answer there. But the job right now is beating Daniel Dubois.

Both of these guys can win this fight. There’s good, logical reasoning to pick either one of them. Dubois isn’t Usyk, either, but he’s better technically than Wardley. It could behoove him to try and just win rounds and not look for the knockout; he has the sort of power that if it’s there, he can make it happen without opening up a lot or taking risks that leave him vulnerable to Wardley’s strengths, and if it never comes, he might be able to hold Wardley off enough to take a decision, because Dubois is a nastier puncher than Justis Huni by a lot. Wardley may not be so apt to sell out and go for broke if he’s behind, because Dubois has that ability to knock him out for making a mistake.

But Wardley just keeps proving it, doesn’t he? I think it’s a strong trait for Dubois that he’s mentally tough enough that losing doesn’t seem to get him too far down. But he has lost. He has been stopped three times. Wardley and Dubois have both responded well to blemishes on their records, coming back better (Wardley) or just strong (Dubois).

The question, I think, is really whether or not Wardley has closed the gap on where he and Dubois were as all-around boxers, say, two or three years ago. Dubois was a more complete boxer than Wardley then, and may still be, but Wardley has improved by a good bit.

If this is the sort of shootout fans want and both fighters have said they’re up for providing, then all bets are off. That could just be the first crushing shot that lands clean and leaves the other man either knocked smooth out or so damaged that it’s not going to last much longer. In a pure slugfest, questions of “all-around” skill sets go out the window, and it becomes a game of chance.

I can see Dubois starting this fight with a more tactical approach. He’s back with trainer Don Charles, who may advise Dubois to be a bit more measured in this one, though ultimately a fighter is going to do what a fighter does once the bell sounds.

On the other side, you can imagine Wardley wanting to test Dubois’ heart and desire as soon as possible, and if he tags Dubois early, no amount of game planning is likely to prevent Dubois from trying to fire back with his own big shots.

I’m going with Wardley. I’m not terribly confident in the pick, which is the sign of a good matchup, and this is a really good one. I think he’s improved to the point that Dubois won’t have any really significant advantages in the matchup, and then it comes down to things like momentum and mindset. Dubois has cracked before. Wardley hasn’t. Yes, Daniel Dubois can win this fight and I doubt many would be all that surprised, let alone shocked. But I think Fabio Wardley stays on the roll. He might not go down as an all-time great, in fact he probably won’t, but there may be something truly special about him, too.

Prediction: Fabio Wardley via TKO in the middle rounds