Falcons QB Tua Tagovailoa ranked on lower end of projected starters

When Matt Ryan was asked about the Falcons' quarterback competition recently he admitted that he doesn't know what to expect. It's a fair sentiment at this point, because nobody knows exactly when Michael Penix Jr. will be fully recovered from his ACL tear and we're not entirely sure who will start Week 1 for Atlanta.

That being said, the smart money right now is on Tua Tagovailoa filing that role. Tagovailoa is healthy and will likely get a lot more QB1 reps over the summer while Penix is still working his way back.

Tua has had his moments during his time with the Miami Dolphins, but heading into the 2026 season at least one analyst considers him a below-average starter. According to a new ranking from Andrew Buller-Russ at Sportsnaut, he's just the 22nd best projected starter in the league right now.

"Even in a down year, Tua Tagovailoa still had the second-highest TD rate of his career. The issue, obviously, was an interception rate nearly twice that of his previous five seasons. Given a chance to reset in a domed stadium, there’s enough reason to believe a motivated Tagovailoa returns to peak form in Atlanta."

For context, that's only one spot ahead of Bryce Young, who threw for fewer than 200 passing yards in 12 games last season. It's one spot below Bo Nix, who has just two years of experience at this level.

One could argue that Tagovailoa belongs a little higher on this list. At a minimum, he should probably be rankedin the top 20 based on his past accomplishments alone.

If Tua can stay healthy and cut down on his interception rate (it was a career-high 3.9% last season, up dramatically from his career average of 2.4%) then he should be able to climb these rankings pretty quick.