Half the MLB teams are facing closer issues, with injuries and poor performances causing upheaval. This report analyzes 15 bullpens and their potential changes for Fantasy Baseball.
Key points
Half the MLB teams are facing closer issues
Injuries and poor performances are major factors
Fifteen bullpens are analyzed for Fantasy Baseball
Teams are categorized by the likelihood of changes
Edwin Diaz's status is uncertain
Mentioned in this story
Edwin Diaz
PhilliesCubs
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Normally, when I write the Bullpen Report, I can zero in on 10 teams experiencing some form of closer drama or another. But 10 isn't going to cut it this time, not when fully half the league has been thrown into closer upheaval.
In some cases, it's due to injury. In others, poor performance. Still others are plagued by unfamiliar usage that's sure to raise the ire of Fantasy Baseballers everywhere.
Bottom line is that there's enough confusion for me to look at where 15 of the most confounding bullpens stand, where I think they're going, and who in them is of the greatest interest in Fantasy. I've sorted these confounding bullpens into three groups: "a change is coming," "a change may be coming," and "not clear what's going on."
Let's try to make sense of it.
Note: "Pecking order" refers to rosterability in Fantasy and not necessarily who's first in line for saves (though it's usually one and the same).
Jhoan Duran, of course, remains the top reliever to target in this bullpen even if he's going to miss the next few weeks with a strained oblique. Brad Keller, who signed a two-year, $22 million deal this offseason to serve as Duran's right-handed setup man, is the likeliest choice to replace him, but left-hander Jose Alvarado, who has totaled 30 saves for the Phillies over the past three years, could factor when the matchups are right. Neither has been particularly sharp so far, but Alvarado has been the worst of the two.
The Cubs also lost their closer, Daniel Palencia, to an oblique strain over the weekend, and their situation is especially crummy because they're already down Phil Maton (knee tendinitis) and Hunter Harvey (triceps inflammation), who were supposed to form the right-handed bridge to Palencia. This would make left-hander Caleb Thielbar the front-runner by default, and he was used like a closer would be twice over the weekend (including once for a save). Because of all the injuries to their right-handers, the Cubs bullpen is lefty-dominant right now, which also works in Thielbar's favor.
Bryan Abreu's fastball is down 2 mph, and he has no confidence in his delivery right now, which has forced the Astros to experiment with other options in the ninth inning. I say "experiment" because their first two saves since Abreu burned out have gone to 30-year-old Enyel De Los Santos, who has been around long enough for us to know he's not cut out for the role. Most recently, De Los Santos worked the eighth inning Sunday, and left-hander Bryan King was tasked with preserving a tie in the ninth, which he failed to do. He's the more effective reliever of the two, but it doesn't seem like the Astros are going to find much consistency here until either Josh Hader returns (which won't be until late May now that he's on the 60-day IL) or Abreu regains his confidence. It's why those two remain atop the pecking order for Fantasy.
Jeff Hoffman hasn't followed through on his claim of increasing his slider usage to pre-2025 levels, and as such, he's encountering many of the same issues that he faced a year ago. He's already blown three saves, and that's not even counting a four-run meltdown that stuck him with a loss Saturday. Manager John Schneider has been steadfast in his support, but everyone reaches a breaking point eventually. Should Schneider reach it with Hoffman, Louie Varland, who has struck out 16 batters in 11 innings so far, would make the most sense as a replacement. Tyler Rogers could work, too, but his submarine delivery makes him better implemented as a Swiss Army knife.
After backing off Edwin Diaz for nine days because of a velocity dip, manager Dave Roberts finally turned to the right-hander in the eighth inning of a tie game Sunday and watched him give up three earned runs without recording an out. He called it a "tough evaluation" and admitted it's "a little concerning," saying that the training and coaching staffs will need to look into it. The Dodgers owe Diaz a total of $60 million over the next three years, so you'll certainly see him back in the closer role at some point. A longer break may be in the offing, though, and while Alex Vesia has recorded each of the Dodgers' past two saves, another left-hander, Tanner Scott, makes more sense as a closer fill-in, given his past experience in the role.
Manager Pat Murphy hasn't said much about Trevor Megill's claim to the closer role other than to confirm he's still part of the mix, and if you're of the opinion that actions speak louder, well, they're a bit confused as well. Megill did get a save in his latest appearance Friday, but it came in the 10th inning, with Abner Uribe working to preserve the tie in the ninth. Uribe then notched his own save on Saturday, but Megill had worked the previous two days and was presumably unavailable. The consensus seems to be that Uribe has put himself in a better standing, so I'll go with that view here, but my suspicion is that Murphy would prefer to have Megill in the role if the 32-year-old can navigate out of this bumpy stretch.
The Rangers seemed to have settled on Jake Junis as their closer, giving him three saves in the span of a week. But his two appearances since then have come prior to the ninth inning, with the most recent Sunday coming when the Rangers were trailing by three runs. That's not typical closer usage and would suggest that manager Skip Schumaker is still weighing his options. The most interesting of those options is right-hander Cole Winn, who worked the ninth inning for a save when Junis was unavailable April 8, but his usage since then isn't any more in line with what you'd expect from a closer. He worked the eighth inning for a hold in his latest appearance Friday, but then, when the Rangers extended their lead to five runs in the bottom of the inning, it was left-hander Jacob Latz who came in for the ninth.
Kirby Yates has begun a rehab assignment after a bout with knee inflammation, but he's also working to regain his splitter down in the minors and may not be back for a while. Manager Kurt Suzukiwas reportedly noncommittal about keeping Jordan Romano in the closer role after the right-hander blew a save in back-to-back appearances last week, but Romano struck out three in a scoreless ninth inning in his latest appearance Friday. The Angels don't have a great alternative unless Yates rights himself.
Emilio Pagan was diagnosed with a mild hamstring strain Tuesday, but he's appeared in two of the Reds' past three games, recording a save in one but blowing a save (while vulturing a win) in the other. Tony Santillan worked the ninth inning for a save on the day in between, so at the very least, it seems like manager Terry Francona is reluctant to work Pagan on back-to-back days until fully healthy. It's still possible the right-hander could land on the IL if he isn't recovering fast enough.
Gregory Soto recorded the Pirates' first save back on April 3, and for a while, it seemed like Dennis Santana was being used mostly in the eighth. But Santana's past six appearances have all been in the ninth or 10th, including five times to finish out a game and three times in a save chance. Soto has set up for him in four of those games. Manager Don Kelly may still view them as a tandem, with Santana throwing righty and Soto lefty, but Santana would appear to be the preferred choice for Fantasy still.
Earlier this month, manager Tony Vitello identified Ryan Walker, Keaton Winn, and Erik Miller as relievers he could use in the ninth, and the team's latest save went to the left-handed Miller on Thursday. But the latest save chance went to the right-handed Walker, who happens to have the most closer experience of the three, and he failed to convert. It was the first time he had entered a game later than the seventh inning since March 30. He remains the front-runner because of his history, but Winn has seen the most consistent usage and has the fewest red flags, I would argue.
Control has been a major issue for Seranthony Dominguez already, causing him to blow two saves while recording four. Some have identified hard-throwing Grant Taylor as a possible replacement, but manager Will Venable seems to have a different role in mind for him -- one that allows him to throw a couple innings at a time. The White Sox actually ponied up for Dominguez this offseason, agreeing to pay him $20 million over the next two years, and that's such an uncommon investment for them that you have to figure he'll have a considerable leash.
Joel Kunel now leads the Athletics with three saves, though in between, right-hander Mark Leiter and left-hander Hogan Harris have each notched a save. Each of them have set up for at least one of Kuhnel's saves, though, while he didn't for theirs. Of course, his most recent appearance came in the seventh inning of a contest, so it would be inaccurate to say he's the closer. He's emerging as the clearest front-runner this team has had so far this year, though.
Lucas Erceg reeled off five quick saves for the Royals after Carlos Estevez hit the IL with a foot contusion, but Erceg's latest chance Thursday saw him cough up a two-run lead for a loss. Upon closer inspection, he hasn't actually been pitching all that well, giving up hard contact with an embarrassingly low swinging-strike rate. Estevez will soon begin a rehab assignment, but he'll need to regain significant velocity before he can return to the closer role (and is expected to spend extra time in the minors attempting to do just that). Matt Strahm is probably the Royals' best reliever, but his left-handedness may be an obstacle to him closing.
The unusual usage for Pete Fairbanks started with him being deployed as an opener April 5, which was apparently a way to get him out of the game sooner so he could go on paternity leave. His return outing nine days later saw him work the eighth inning rather than the ninth, coughing up the lead in the process. He did finally record another save Sunday, and his previous outing was also a conventional one for a closer, working the ninth inning in a tie game at home. More reps are needed to say for sure, but normalcy seems like it's being restored in the Marlins bullpen.
