Fantasy Baseball: Mick Abel provides 'plausible upside' as a waiver-wire add after 10-strikeout outing

Sometimes scouting the free agent waiver wire can feel overwhelming, with the stats and the tape and the shifting roles, not to mention the Paradox of Choice. It’s a complicated world, and it’s easy to lose your balance and bearings.

Whenever I feel that dizziness in my fantasy games, I come back to two simple words: plausible upside.

You should always be looking to turn over the bottom piece of your fantasy roster, and plausible upside is all that really matters. We say plausible because you can’t wait for proof in this game; if you do, any pickup candidate will likely be long gone to an opponent. And we say upside because that’s where the cheddar is — the idea that a player could improve, blossom, outkick expectations. It’s likely more of your pickups will fail than click, but you only need to be right a handful of times to significantly impact your season.

With these themes in play, let’s talk about Mick Abel, the 24-year old right-handed starter for the Twins.

Abel’s had an up and down professional career since the Phillies took him in the middle of the first round back in 2020. He’s consistently been listed on the prospect boards, though he never made it past No. 36 on any sheet. His career stats in the minors are underwhelming: 4.24 ERA, 1.367 WHIP. He always had juicy strikeout numbers, but he’s also walked 4.9 batters per nine innings, a bloated rate that’s hard to overcome.

Still, the skills would often flash. Abel posted a 2.31 ERA and 1.16 WHIP for Philly’s Triple-A club last year, and was the centerpiece of the Jhoan Duran trade last July. He was even better in five St. Paul starts (1.85/0.945), though brief stints with the Phillies and Twins (covering 39 innings) were not successful (6.23 ERA).

So Abel entered this year as a potential sleeper, likely to win a spot in the Minnesota rotation. Maybe the timing was right for the 24-year-old to harness his control and become a legitimate MLB pitcher.

After winning Minnesota’s No. 4 slot in camp, Abel had a slow liftoff. The Orioles and Rays knocked him around for nine runs over 7.1 innings. But he regrouped with six smooth, shutout innings against Detroit last week, and then came Tuesday’s gem against Boston:

7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K

We often talk about the idea that any pitcher who strikes out 10 in a game is likely worth an immediate pickup on spec alone. But when you tie those whiffs to zero walks — and this coming from a pitcher who’s generally battled control issues — then you really get excited. And to push it over the cliff, watch the video. Look at Abel dominating with an assortment of pitches — fastball, curve, slider, change. You can see why he was a first-round pick almost six years ago.

Perhaps Abel drew the Red Sox at the right time, a struggling offense, but the next assignment is even better. On Tuesday, he’ll throw against a Mets lineup that’s 28th in OPS and doesn’t have signature hitter Juan Soto. I’ll definitely have that game on a primary set, to watch both Abel and New York’s young ace, Nolan McLean. Must-see TV.

If Abel’s recent form has you curious, note he’s rostered in just 16% of Yahoo leagues. There are seats remaining on this bus.

While Abel’s story is just starting, we’re on the back-9 with Anaheim’s Jorge Soler. He’s in his age-34 season and he wasn’t an effective hitter last year (.215/.293/.387). But a back problem cost Soler about half of the 2025 campaign, and perhaps it cut into his production when he was on the field.

All I know is he looks just fine now. He’s already clubbed five homers on the year, and while a .231 average isn’t great, a .342 OBP and .508 slugging percentage plays anywhere. Here’s his home run from Tuesday night — let me know when it lands.

It’s a little too early to say it’s real, but the Angels lineup hasn’t been a joke. The LAA offense ranks sixth in runs and second in home runs. Six of the nine regulars have an OPS+ over 100. Zach Neto, a healthy Mike Trout, Jo Adell, Soler, there’s some fun in the OC.

Soler’s still a free agent in over half of Yahoo leagues. Although he’s primarily a DH, he does carry outfielder eligibility in our game.

In some of my head-to-head leagues, starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti was a targeted player this week. He’s back in the Houston rotation and set to start Wednesday. Arrighetti’s profile is similar to Abel’s — big strikeout numbers, clunky walk totals. But the onboarding spot is a dream, a turn against the Rockies away from Coors Field. Colorado’s road stats are passable this year — albeit in a tiny sample — but consider the recent history. The Rockies have been last or second to last in road OPS for each of the past five years.

In some leagues, Arrighetti is a watch-and-react. In some other formats, he’s worth a grab before he ever throws a pitch. You can season to taste and decide for your pool. He’s currently 21% rostered in Yahoo leagues.

I’m going to do an extended bullpen audit on Friday, but save chasing is something fantasy managers think about every day. With that in mind, note that Jeff Hoffman and Trevor Megill both had blown saves Tuesday. The situation might be more pressing for Megill, given that he’s now allowed seven runs in two appearances, and the Brewers are openly considering a change.

Abner Uribe (who hasn’t been great himself) would be the first speculative add for Megill, though I wonder if Aaron Ashby (19 K in 12.2 innings) has some sleeper value. Louis Varland has been sharp for Toronto (10.1 IP, 0 R, 3 BB, 15 K) and makes sense if Hoffman needs a break or a role change.