Fantasy Baseball: Six things to know about Bryce Eldridge's return to the majors

What should we expect?

A lot of strikeouts, to be sure. Eldridge struck out 13 times in his 37 major league plate appearances last September, which is a 35.1 percent rate. His career strikeout rate in the minors is 27.4 percent, including 29.9 percent at Triple-A last year. It's right on the edge of the 30 percent threshold that's often make-or-break for batting average, routinely visited by players such as Nolan Gorman, Ryan McMahon and Oneil Cruz. This is the main part of Eldridge's game that detractors were hoping he'd have figured out by now, but the amount of plate coverage required for a man who stands 6-feet-7 is prohibitive. Eldridge will likely always be this way.

It doesn't have to be a deal-breaker, though. The key to overcoming a high strikeout rate is to optimize what contact is made, namely by hitting the ball exceedingly hard. Eldridge has always excelled at that, averaging 92.9 mph on batted balls at Triple-A this year, with a max of 113.1 mph, and 95.7 mph on batted balls at Triple-A last year, with a max of 114.6 mph. Those readings aren't so far off from the ones that made Aaron Judge a 52-homer player as a rookie in 2017 even though he struck out 30.7 percent of the time that year. Comparing Eldridge to Judge may seem unfair, but I only bring it up because Judge's tendency to strike out also called his viability into question at the start of his career. Baseball America barely ranked him inside its top 100 to begin that year.

Of course, possessing power and actualizing it are two different attributes, and how well Eldridge does the latter will ultimately determine how useful he is for Fantasy Baseball. Even the best-case scenario points to him being a three-true-outcomes player, though, which means the home run output will need to be significant.

How likely is he to succeed?

Actualizing power comes down to three facets: connecting with the ball, impacting the ball and angling the ball. I've already addressed the first two. The third is best expressed by pull-air rate, which is exactly what it sounds like. Most home runs are hit to the pull side -- and all are hit in the air -- so a swing with a high pull-air rate is one best attuned for home runs. It becomes less important the harder a player hits the ball, seeing as the hardest-hit balls will carry out of any part of the park, but a higher pull-air rate allows for a higher margin for error. Eldridge will be playing his home games in a park notorious for suppressing left-handed power, so he'll need to reduce error as much as possible. His pull-air rate at Triple-A last year was only 20th percentile, but this year, it's 94th percentile.

Of course, playing time has as much say in his Fantasy Baseball worth as performance does, and while to some degree, the performance will drive the playing time, I do fear there will be some limitations at first. That "at first" carries a double meaning. On CBS and most other platforms, Eldridge is eligible only at DH to start out, and while I do think he'll play some first base, I suspect it'll be less than Rafael Devers does. You'll likely need to wait a few weeks before you can start Eldridge at first base, and not every Fantasy team has the flexibility to start him at DH.

The other limitation I'm referring to is the likelihood of a platoon. Eldridge, again, bats left-handed, and like most left-handed batters, he has struggled to hit left-handed pitchers. Particularly as a way to get the displaced Casey Schmitt some at-bats, the Giants might take to sitting Eldridge against left-handers early on, which could diminish his playing time enough to take him out of the running in shallower leagues.

Who makes for a reasonable comp?

This comp runs the risk of seeming too fanciful given that this player is currently taking the league by storm, but I actually think it's Munetaka Murakami. Obviously, that particular lottery ticket has paid off so far, and it's possible Murakami's professional success in Japan makes him better equipped to handle his transition to the majors. The strengths and weaknesses between the two players are similar, though.

Both have top-of-the-scales power and near bottom-of-the-scales contact ability. Neither chases much outside of the zone. Eldridge might do a better job of connecting on pitches inside the zone (because it doesn't get much worse than Munetaka in that regard), but Munetaka's swing might be better grooved for lifting the ball. Munetaka is less of a hypothetical at this point (though not without risk of a downturn, in my humble opinion), but an outcome exists where Eldridge is a less extreme version of him. I would say that if you're kicking yourself for missing out on Munetaka, you should take an extra long look at Eldridge.

Where should we be adding him?

Though I'd like to say "everywhere" because the upside certainly warrants it, the realities of scoring format and roster size demand a more cautious approach. If the expectation is that Eldridge's strikeouts will be high and his playing time less than every day, then he's almost certainly out of the running in Head-to-Head points leagues, which is the format that most penalizes for strikeouts and most requires everyday at-bats. It tends to be shallower, too, which means most teams' DH spot is already spoken for (if not by a Kyle Schwarber type, then by some extra shortstop or outfielder).

Categories leagues make for a better fit, particularly if your biggest categorical need is the one Eldridge is most likely to meet: home runs. Of course, if you have no hope of playing him in your DH spot, then it's still fair to question if the bench spot you'd be devoting to him would be better spent on another pitcher. Otherwise, you could stash Eldridge in the hopes of him picking up eligibility at first base sooner than later, if that's a particular need. In fact, that hope may be enough to recommend him in any Rotisserie league, which traditionally has a corner infield spot to fill in addition to first base and DH.

Who can we drop for him?

This is the one you all came for, isn't it? Well, again, it's not one-size-fits-all. Someone on X asked me about Moises Ballesteros, who's also DH-only in CBS leagues, but he's already looking like a prospect made good while Eldridge is still just a prospect. What about a struggling first baseman like Vinnie Pasquantino or Michael Busch? Honestly, the expectation should be that Eldridge will struggle as well, and unlike his theoretical outcome, we already have proof Pasquantino and Busch are capable of hitting 30 home runs in a season. They remain the better bets than Eldridge to do so this season.

Alec Burleson? Not with as many runs as he's driving in. Spencer Torkelson? As with Pasquantino and Busch, I would again say that he's more likely to deliver on his home run potential than Eldridge. Spencer Steer? I could maybe go along with that one in the name of upside, though in deeper leagues, I'd hesitate to let go of such a handy player.

Perhaps we should look at the outfield, not because Eldridge is likely to pick up eligibility there but because it offers a wider range of hitters to drop. Dropping Jakob Marsee or Lawrence Butler might be a tough sell in five-outfielder leagues, but I've grown disenchanted enough with both that I don't think you'll miss them in three-outfielder formats. You could maybe hold onto Marsee if steals are of particularly high priority. Daylen Lile is fairly limited in his upside. Kerry Carpenter is clearly just a platoon player, and not a particularly exciting one. Letting go of any of Ceddanne Rafaela, Trent Grisham, Adolis Garcia, Sal Frelick and Jorge Soler seems like a fairly easy call.

What do these players have in common? I don't think you'll actually miss them, not unless you play in a league so deep that the choices to drop are even more obvious than them. Eldridge's own chances of missing are high enough that I wouldn't dare drop anyone I might actually need for him. If my roster is so stuffed with essentials that I can't make room for him, so be it. Eldridge the sort of pickup you make when your outlook is so bleak that you need a miracle OR when you have such disposable wealth that you can afford to dream big.

You know, sort of like a lottery ticket.