Fantasy baseball streaming starting pitchers and arsenal changes for Parker Messick, Davis Martin, more

Payton Tolle doesn't technically qualify, but he's close, and some people are down on him after his last start, so I had to include him in here. This is also a solid two-start week for Janson Junk and Nick Martinez; although, these are not the starts I really like for them.

I don't believe we are seeing a true breakout from Cade Cavalli, but he's pitching well right now and has two great starts this week. Andre Pallante is also pitching really well for the Cardinals right now, and I think Noah Cameron and Luis Severino have solid two-start weeks this week. Severino makes me nervous, but he's outside of Sacramento and has been throwing the ball well, so I can see using him. I might prefer Eduardo Rodriguez if we're being honest.

Joey Cantillo is incredibly frustrating, but he can beat anybody when his changeup is working, and this is a good matchup for him. I'm not sure how long Jake Bennett will remain in the Red Sox rotation, and his strikeout numbers will be low, but he's a solid ratio arm. Walbert Urena is expected to make this start, and he looked better against the Mets last time out, as did Christian Scott in that performance, but I can't trust him on the road in Colorado.

Max Meyer is pitching so well right now that you can't bench him, and I also wouldn't abandon Connell Early, even though he needs to get those walks in check. I'm not sure how to feel about Cade Povich; I just don't think he's that good. Same for Michael McGreevy, who I know just shut down the Dodgers.

I think more people need to be in on Connor Prielipp; he's a good pitcher, and this is a strong matchup for him. Ryne Nelson is also much better than his two poor starts. Both Foster Griffin and Griffin Canning are natchuip plays here, but I think Steven Matz is a good pitcher who should handle Boston's lefties well.

We're getting into the two-starts here with Janson Junk and Nick Martinez. I think Jack Kochanowicz has emerged as a high-floor arm this season, and I like what I saw from Logan Henderson (read below), but this matchup is not good.

This feels like a pretty good day for streaming. Noah Cameron, Cade Cavalli, and Tyler Mahle are all solid pitchers in good matchups, and I don't mind the matchups for any of the starters in the second tier either. They just have lower ceilings.

Starting Pitcher Pitch Mix Changes

Parker Messick - Cleveland Guardians (New Cutter)

Coming into the season, Messick was one of my favorite late-round starting pitchers, but that was built on the back of his elite changeup. In that article, I mentioned how Messick attacked righties with a five-pitch mix, but the changeup was truly the crown. His four-seamer fastball gave up a fair amount of hard contact to righties, and his slider and curve were more complementary pieces versus righties. Enter the cutter.

This season, Messick is throwing the cutter to righties nearly 17% of the time. It has around league-average swinging strike rates (SwStr%) but doesn't give up a lot of hard contact. It's 91 mph, with just 1.3 inches of horizontal movement and over 10 inches of "rise," and Messick does a good job keeping it up and inside to righties, with a 69% high location and 65% inside location. That's the key to the cutter because Messick also throws his four-seamer up in the strike zone 67% of the time to righties. His four-seamer is 93.7 mph with 16 inches of "rise," so if righties think they see a cutter, they're getting a fastball that's a bit quicker and more elevated, but if they think they see a four-seamer, they're going to get a pitch that runs in on their hands. That's a big reason why the Ideal Contact Rate (ICR) allowed on Messick's four-seamer has gone from 48% last year (40% is league-average) to 29% this year. I also believe it's a big reason why the SwSt% on his changeup to righties has jumped from 16% last year to 29% this year. The more you can jam fastballs up and inside to righties, the harder it will be for them to also cover the low and away parts of the strike zone.

This is a very real breakout for Messick, and I don't think the elevated strikeout rate and SwStr% are flukes.

Logan Henderson - Milwaukee Brewers (New Sweeper)

I wasn't as high on Logan Henderson as many others were coming into the season. Part of that was because he ended last season with a forearm injury, and that scared me. Frankly, it still does scare me, but that's a conversation for another time. The other issue is that his best pitch is a changeup, and he threw it nearly 40% of the time to right-handed hitters last year. As a right-handed pitcher, that concerned me because same-sided changeups are usually not good pitches for swings and misses when used regularly. Well, now Henderson seems to have another offering for them.

This year, Henderson has changed his slider into more of a sweeper. Last season, his slider was 83.6 mph with essentially no horizontal movement and 3.5 inches of drop. This year, it's 81 mph with 17 inches of horizontal movement and 6.1 inches of drop. That's a markedly different pitch. He's only made two MLB starts this season, but he's using this new slider over 19% of the time to righties and throwing it 66.7% of the time in two-strike counts, where it has a 25% PutAway Rate, which is nice in a small sample. Overall, he's been relying on a lot of chase with it, but it should play well off of his cutter, which is 87 mpg with far less drop and sweep. He throws the cutter 83% of the time early in counts to righties, so they may start to anticipate that they'll never see one in a two-strike count, but Henderson can also switch that up as well.

It's only been two starts, and he hasn't seen a lot of right-handed hitters, but I do love this addition for him because I think it makes him feel like a safer bet for swings and misses against righties, which raises his profile considerably in my eyes. Now, if only I trusted his health.

Landen Roupp (Cutter Shape, New Position on the rubber)

I'm a huge Landen Roupp fan, so I'm not fully surprised by his 3.18 ERA through seven starts, but I have noticed his 27% strikeout rate and have been intrigued. Roupp missed lots of bats in the minor leagues, so his 21.4% strikeout rate in 22 MLB starts last year was a bit confusing to me. Can this elevated strikeout rate stick? I think so, for the most part.

A key component of that has been a move on the rubber. As Lance Brozdowski pointed out by looking at Roupp's release point, the right-hander has also moved eight inches toward the first-base side of the rubber. This can allow Roupp to change the attack locations of his pitches without having to change the pitches themselves. Overall, this season Roupp is attacking left-handed hitters up and inside far more often than he did in 2025, potentially because he feels more confident with the command of his pitches in that area now that he's releasing from a new spot on the rubber and simply trusting the movement. Last season, lefties his .261 off Roupp with a 7% K-BB% and 9.6% SwStr%. This season, they're hitting .190 with a 13% K-BB% and a 10% SwStr%.

As you can see by looking at the SwStr%, some of that strikeout rate gain is likely over-performance in two-strike counts, but the move on the rubber could also be impacting that. He's doing a far better job of keeping his curveball down to lefites this year, and the PutAway Rate has increased from 19% to 27%. The sinker has also been much better in limited two-strike counts to lefties than it was last year, and both of those could be because of changes Roupp made to his cutter. Last year, the cutter was 90 mph, and it had nearly three inches of arm-side movement and seven inches of rise. This year, it's 88.5 mph with over four inches of glove side movement and under five inches of rise. That's over seven inches more movement in on lefties.

However, Roupp is no longer just throwing the cutter inside to lefties. He's using it far more on the outside corner and trying to steal strikes with it breaking back over the plate. Last year, he threw the pitch only 10% of the time when he was behind in the count to lefties, but now he's doing it 27% of the time. This is his way to steal strikes and get back into advantage counts where he can use the curve or elevate the sinker after having shown the cutter.

At the end of the day, I do expect a bit of strikeout regression, but Roupp feels like a guy who posts a 25% strikeout rate with an ERA around 3.50-3.70, and I'll take that all day.

Davis Martin - Chicago White Sox (Curve Shape/Usage, Four-Seam Usage)

Another surprise starter pitcher this season has been Davis Martin, who has a 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 23% strikeout rate through six starts. Now, Martin wasn't bad last year, but a .410 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 17% strikeout rate aren't really usable in fantasy baseball, so this is a potentially important change. The biggest difference we've seen has been versus right-handed hitters. In 2025, righties hit .248 off Martin with a 19.4% strikeout rate and 12.4% SwStr%. This year, they're hitting .264 but have a 28% strikeout rate and 18% SwStr%. So what's fueling that swing-and-miss improvement?

For starters, Martin has deepened his pitch mix to righties. Last year, he was 30% four-seam fastball, 25% cutter, 17% sinker, 14% changeup, and 13% slider. This year, he is nearly 32% slider, 23% sinker, 20% four-seam, and 11% cutter. So that slider appears to be the key. Last year, it was 85 mph with seven inches of horizontal movement and one inch of rise. This year, it's 87 mph with five inches of horizontal movement and under one inch of rise. It's not a major change, but it's harder and a little tighter. Yet, that simple change may have given Martin better command because he is keeping the pitch low in the zone 15% more often than last year and away from righties 9% more often. That has led to far more chases this year, with a 40% O-Swing%, compared to a 25% rate last year. Understandably, Martin has also leaned into it more with two-strikes, and the slider has a 36.4% PutAway Rate to righties this year after a 15% mark last year. That's a pretty shocking jump.

He's able to get to those two-strike counts against righties more often because he's using the sinker more often early in the count and also using the cutter primarily as an early-count called strike pitch now. That sets up his slider, but also his four-seam fastball, which he is using less often but now using 49% of the time in two-strike counts after using it 34% in those situations last year. The four-seamer has a 25% PutAway Rate to righties because Martin is now throwing two other fastball variations almost as much, which keeps hitters off the four-seamer.

I'm not sure how sustainable a 36% PutAway Rate is on a slider that isn't that much different than last season, but it's working for Martin now. I do expect some regression to hit as hitters adjust to his new slider and also recognize that he rarely throws it in the strike zone. However, I do think some of the gains in swinging strike rate will also carry over because of the change in his fastball usage. He's firmly on the streaming radar this season, and that's a big improvement from last year.