Fantasy Baseball Today: Mick Abel headlines must-add arms as pitching attrition mounts

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Pitching is all about attrition. Your rotation at the beginning of the season won't be your rotation three weeks into the season, let alone three months in. You're going to have to find replacements, with the likes of Hunter Brown, Nick Pivetta, Spencer Strider, Nick Lodolo, Ryan Pepiot, Tatsuya Imai, and Cade Horton already on the IL among what we hoped would be the must-start cohort at the position.

Which is why, especially early in the season, discussions in Fantasy Baseball tend to focus so heavily on potential pitcher pickups. You're going to need a ton of help to get through the season, and the inherently fickle nature of the position means you need to take a lot of chances. And you have to jump on any pitcher who shows any glimpses of upside, even if you know the likeliest outcome with any of them is that they'll let you down. That's the nature of the position, too.

You can see it in Mick Abel, the Twins fascinating young starter. He was arguably the most dominant pitcher in the league this spring, potentially looking like he had finally started to live up to the former first-round hype. And then he came out in his first two starts and was tagged for nine runs in 7.1 innings of work while walking as many as he struck out (seven), and many of you surely cycled through him on your way to the next pop-up pitcher.

But that might have been a mistake. He showed flashes in his third start, tossing six shutout innings against the Tigers, but he really put it all together Tuesday. Facing a Red Sox lineup loaded with talent, Abel put together arguably the best start of his young career, striking out 10, walking none, and limiting the Red Sox to just four hits over his seven shutout innings.

What changed? Well, he mixed in a few extra sliders relative to how he had been pitching earlier, but mostly he just executed at an incredibly high level, picking up a called or swinging strike on 39% of his pitches and consistently throwing the curveball and changeup for strikes. And when he's doing that, he can rip fastballs past hitters, as he did here with seven whiffs on the pitch Tuesday. Ultimately, Abel threw 71% of his pitches for strikes and just overwhelmed the Red Sox.

That doesn't mean he'll be an ace moving forward. I'd bet against it, in fact. It's not like we haven't seen good starts from Abel before, of course – you may remember his major-league debut last May, when he struck out nine in six shutout innings with the Phillies, a start he couldn't even come close to replicating again for nearly the entire season. Abel's issue has never been one of talent – he was a first-rounder, again – but consistency. And one excellent start against a talented but cold Red Sox lineup doesn't mean he's suddenly solved that issue.

But you should absolutely be adding him on the strength of this performance. Without question. It might go wrong, but any pitcher – but especially one as young and obviously talented as Abel – who flashes like this needs to be a priority in all leagues on waivers. It might be your only chance of replacing one of those lost stars. That alone makes him worth taking the chance on.

Now, let's get to everything else you need to know from Tuesday's action around MLB:

Wednesday's top waiver-wire targets

Here's who we're looking to add coming out of Tuesday's action:

Reid Detmers, SP, Angels (46%) – I've been hurt by Detmers before, but he was really good Tuesday against the Yankees, limiting them to just one earned run over seven innings of four-hit ball. He struck out nine in the outing while generating a whopping 17 swinging strikes, including four each on his slider, changeup, and curveball. Detmers has been generating solid swinging strike numbers across his arsenal in the early going and has a 3.57 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 26 strikeouts to just six walks in his 22.2 innings of work. It hasn't necessarily been a smooth ride so far, but the highs have been very high, including two starts with nine strikeouts. I don't think Detmers is suddenly an ace, but I'm interested in seeing if there's some post-hype breakout potential here. That he's RP-only in CBS Fantasy leagues only helps his case.

Tony Santillan, RP, Reds (18%) – Scott White wrote about the state of the ninth inning in his Bullpen Report column Tuesday, but it's already out of date, as we had a number of closer situations potentially change Tuesday night. The most concrete one might be in Cincinnati, where closer Emilio Pagan got the save only to seemingly injure his hamstring on his final pitch. He was in visible discomfort as the game ended, and manager Terry Francona told reporters Pagan will require further evaluation before determining the extent of the issue. We won't know his status until at least Wednesday, but if you're speculating for saves, Santillan should be at or near the top of your list. Despite a dip in fastball velocity, Santillo has 10 strikeouts in eight shutout innings of work on the season, allowing just two hits – albeit with six walks, the lone blemish on his profile. But Santillan had a 2.44 ERA last season, so it's not like his success is somehow new. I don't think he's a superstar closer, but he should be good enough to get the job done for a solid Reds team if Pagan does have to miss time. Spencer Arrighetti, SP, Astros (40%) – It seemed inevitable that the Astros' rotation injuries would lead to another opportunity for Arrighetti, and that opportunity is coming Wednesday. Just a year ago, Arrighetti was a big-time breakout candidate, but a finger injury and then elbow inflammation limited him to seven mostly ineffective starts, and when he failed to crack the rotation out of Spring Training, he was largely forgotten for Fantasy purposes. But he's back after striking out 20 in his first 14.1 innings at Triple-A, and now he'll get a chance to stick again. Remember, he had a 3.18 ERA with 78 strikeouts in 65 innings in the second half of his rookie season in 2024, and if he's healthy, that upside might still be there. It's worth taking the flyer, at least.

Ildemaro Vargas, 2B, Diamondbacks (4%) – Okay, so here's the thing: You've probably already missed the best stretch of Vargas' season. Maybe the best stretch of his career, if we're being honest, because this is a 34-year-old career .253/.294/.365 hitting journeyman who has opened the season hitting safely in 11 straight games. That included his second homer of the season Tuesday. This is a guy with a career high of four homers entering this season. But he's also hot and playing regularly right now with excellent underlying numbers, so if you want to see if there's something here while playing the hot hand, feel free.

Abner Uribe, RP, Brewers (60%) – The Brewers entered the season with one of the most uncertain bullpen situations in the league, but Trevor Megill handled the first three save chances of the season, so it seemed settled. Then he stumbled last Friday and did so again Tuesday, giving up seven runs on five hits, a walk, and a hit-by-pitch over one full inning across both outings. Manager Pat Murphy acknowledged after Tuesday's game that the team will have to talk about a change at closer, and while they won't announce a decision yet, the fact that they're open to it is noteworthy. Uribe has, of course, given up runs in each of his past two outings, so it's not like he's a lock for it. But he fared well in the role when Megill was hurt last season and would seem to be best situated to take advantage of a role change – though maybe they skip him and go with lefty Angel Zerpa? That feels like more of a long shot, but in deeper leagues, you could look at him as a speculative add, too.

Louie Varland, RP, Blue Jays (7%) – Jeff Hoffman's role seemed to be in doubt for much of the offseason before the Blue Jays defaulted to him to open the season, but he continues to look shaky in the role, including a blown save Tuesday. It was Hoffman's third blown save of the season, and it pushed his ERA up to 4.32. He's still missing a ton of bats (18 strikeouts in 8.2 innings of work), but he has also walked five over the past four outings while allowing three runs in 3.2 innings in that stretch. Is that enough to cost Hoffman his job? It's certainly possible, given how poorly he handled the role for much of last season, and the Blue Jays clearly trust Varland, who ended up coming on in relief of Hoffman to get the win Tuesday. Varland was a big part of the Blue Jays run to the World Series last season and has been strong to open the season, so it wouldn't be shocking if they made the swap here.

Tuesday's standouts

Zack Wheeler, SP, Phillies – Wheeler frankly wasn't very good in his first three minor-league rehab starts. Pitching at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Wheeler gave up six runs over 10.1 innings across the three starts, striking out 10 but also walking four and adding three hit-by-pitches, and most importantly, posting velocity readings around 3 mph down from where he had been the last time we saw him healthy. Things were different in one key respect on Tuesday, as he struck out nine batters and walked none over 5.2 innings … at Double-A. While allowing three runs. And without velocity readings (Double-A parks don't feature Statcast data; Triple-A parks do). On the whole, it's hard to take this as a huge positive for Wheeler, who remains a significant question mark coming back from Thoracic Outlet surgery and a blood clot that ended his 2025 season. As far as we know, his velocity is still down significantly from where it was in 2025, and we know he has lost 10 pounds from his 2025 playing weight since the surgery. We'll take the positive signs from this start, but I can't say my expectations here have changed. I hope he can find his former ace level, but I'm not exactly optimistic about it.

Nolan McLean, Mets @LAD: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – Yeah, he might just be an ace. There are still the occasional bouts of inconsistency with his control, which is mostly just a product of how much movement McLean generates – MLB.com's Mike Petriello noted Tuesday that no pitcher in the Statcast era has ever generated as much lateral movement differentiation between their pitches as McLean does. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his first four starts, and he has eight strikeouts in three of four. He might just be a top-15 SP.

Cole Ragans, Royals @DET: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 1 K – It's just been a weird start for Ragans, whose command hasn't quite been there yet. He has walked four in two of his first four outings, and he left one of the others in the first inning after being hit by a comebacker. To my eyes, the stuff still more or less looks ace-caliber, despite losing 1 mph off his fastball from last season. So if there's any kind of buy-low opportunity to be had here, I'm inclined to take it.

Trevor Rogers, Orioles vs. ARI: 4.2 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – This was a disappointing outing from Rogers, but not necessarily an alarming one. The strikeouts were still there. The control was great. He even allowed just five hard-hit balls among his 15 balls in play. Nothing really looked out of whack here, and the velocity was even up 1.8 mph on his four-seamer. This was just Rogers' first non-quality start, so my concern level is pretty low.

Michael King, Padres vs. SEA: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – It doesn't feel like King has really locked in yet, with just one start with more strikeouts than innings pitched in four tries to date. And despite that, he has a 2.78 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the season. The control was better Tuesday, and everything mostly looks like it should after last year's injury-marred campaign, so I remain plenty optimistic.

Robbie Ray, Giants @CIN: 5 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 6 K – The control hasn't been great for Ray, which is pretty typical for him. He has walked 10 over his past three starts, but Ray just kind of goes through stretches like that. And it's especially excusable in Tuesday's start as he had to lean on his changeup more than usual against an especially righty-heavy lineup. His 4.71 FIP suggests his 2.42 ERA isn't sustainable, but guess what – I don't think the 4.71 FIP is what we should expect from him moving forward. Ray will generate his share of headaches, surely, but I'm not viewing him as a sell-high candidate right now.

Mackenzie Gore, Rangers @ATH: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 6 BB, 5 K – This is Gore's first real stumble of the season, and if you're familiar with his track record, that's better than we're used to seeing from him. The upside has always been there, and Gore has mostly lived up to it so far, with 30 strikeouts to 11 walks in his first 21 innings of work. He'll need to throw more strikes than he did Tuesday, but for a game where he didn't really have it, it's hard to complain too much about the outcome here. I'll give him a mulligan for this one, given how good he has looked overall.

Sonny Gray, Red Sox @MIN: 4 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – Gray is another pitcher who has really struggled with consistency over the years, so a slow start isn't necessarily a death knell for him. But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried right now. The 36-year-old has now struck out just 11 batters across his first four starts, an alarming number for a guy who is generally a pretty great source of strikeouts even when he's struggling. The Red Sox have made their usual tweaks to his arsenal, upping his cutter usage to career-high levels, and I'm just not sure I trust a more pitch-to-contact version of Sonny Gray to keep succeeding. With his ERA over 4.00 for the season, I'm not even sure I can call Gray a "sell-high candidate," but I can say I'm pretty worried about how useful he's going to be moving forward.

Shane McClanahan, Rays @CHW: 5 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 4 K – Given how much McClanahan has gone through just to get back on the mound after missing the past two seasons, I understand the inclination to give him the benefit of the doubt. I'm even inclined to agree. But it's been a lot rougher than even his 3.95 ERA to date would suggest. He has walked at least three in each of his three starts, and it's not like that's come with massive strikeout numbers – just 13 in 13.2 innings. The sample size is tiny, and control is usually the last thing to come back for pitchers coming back from injuries, but where I'm really concerned is that he's doing this all with significantly diminished stuff – his velocity remains about 2 mph down from 2023. The secondaries are still good, but it's concerning to see McClanahan struggling with command while also displaying lesser stuff. I'm not writing him off entirely, and I would try hard not to drop him. But I can't say I've seen much to be optimistic about, either.

Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks @BAL: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 K – Kelly made his return from a spring back injury and more or less looked like himself while throwing 86 pitches in his debut. That's good signs overall for a guy who is rarely exciting, but who is almost always very helpful to your Fantasy teams. I'm starting him next week with a likely start against the White Sox on the way.

Ryan Weathers, Yankees vs. LAA: 5 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 10 K – Weird start. The 10 strikeouts are, obviously, terrific, and the final line looks a lot better when you realize he allowed homers to three straight hitters in the first inning (and four overall). But still … allowed homers to three straight hitters in the first inning and four overall. The stuff still looks really solid, but Weathers is getting hit hard, with his new sinker especially standing out with a 92.2 mph average exit velocity and .486 expected wOBA against. There's clearly talent here, but Weathers just hasn't figured out how to put it all together – there's always something off with him. I'm not dropping him or anything, but Weathers also isn't someone I'm viewing as a high-priority trade target or anything.

Noah Schultz, White Sox vs. TB: 4.1 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 4 K – Yeah, the nerves clearly got to him early on, as he walked two in the first inning and made a mistake fielding a sac bunt to let in a couple of early runs. He settled in after that, and while he wasn't dominant, it was easy to see why he's so highly thought of. Schultz is a massive lefty (6-foot-10!) with easy mid-90s heat, though he wasn't able to sustain his velocity, dipping from 97.3 mph with his sinker in the first inning to 94.6 by the fifth. But the upside is here, and I think it remains worth betting on a young pitcher with this kind of skill set, at least as a bench piece. He'll need to give you something more tangible against major-league hitters to trust him in your starting lineup.

Jeffrey Springs, Athletics vs. TEX: 6.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – Springs didn't seem to have the best feel for his changeup in this one, but he worked around some command issues thanks to an excellent fastball while generating weak contact yet again. He's not going to sustain a sub-2.00 ERA moving forward, obviously, but the upcoming schedule is favorable enough – vs. CHW, @TEX, vs. CLE – that I think you'll probably be pretty happy to have him around for a while longer.

Reynaldo Lopez, Braves vs. MIA: 5 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – This wasn't a great start, but it still feels like Lopez is getting away with something here. His stuff continues to look diminished from his career year in 2024, though at least the strikeouts have been there the past two starts (13, after just six in his first two). I think Lopez can be useful enough, but I'm still expecting something more like a high-3.00s ERA from him the rest of the way, so I think it makes sense to try to shop him if you can.

Ben Rice, 1B, Yankees – Rice has a Giancarlo Stanton problem, if we're being honest. He has started just two of the past five games, as the Yankees continue to give Paul Goldschmidt the bulk of the looks against lefties. And I can't exactly argue against it – yes, I know Rice has been incredible this season and has elite underlying metrics, but it's worth remembering that those numbers are inflated by how many of the toughest lefties he gets to avoid. Goldschmidt can still hit lefties well, even in his much diminished form, so I can't exactly pound the table to say they need to bench the veteran. The problem is, if the Yankees aren't going to use Rice at catcher – he has played only once there since the start of Spring Training – then the only other option is to play him at DH. Except … Stanton is still pretty good, and it doesn't necessarily make a ton of sense to bench him against lefties, either. This is where Stantons' inability to play in the outfield at this point in his career hamstrings the Yankees lineup, forcing them to roll Randal Grichuk out there despite getting little from him. I tend to think this "problem" will work itself out in the long run, either with Rice getting worked into the catcher rotation more or with either Goldschmidt or Stanton going down with injury. But right now, yeah, I do think the benchings against lefties might continue for Rice, unfortunately. It's frustrating, but there also isn't anything you can really do about it. It's just holding him back a little bit right now.

CJ Abrams, SS, Nationals – I just wanted to highlight Abrams here because I didn't realize until today that he's actually been the best shortstop in Fantasy so far. And that was before he hit another homer in a three-hit effort Tuesday against the Pirates to push him to six on the season. With four steals to go along with it. He's been excellent, but then, Abrams is usually excellent early in the season – he had an OPS over .850 at the end of June in each of the previous two seasons. The second-half slides have hurt, and it's hard to call this anything more than another hot start, given that track record.

News and notes

The Padres placed Nick Pivetta on the IL due to right elbow inflammation. That's a big blow for an already thin rotation. You have to keep Pivetta stashed for now in all formats.

Christian Yelich was placed on the IL with a left adductor strain and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks. That's a big bummer for a guy who had dealt with a ton of injuries over the past few years. Gary Sanchez and Jake Bauers will continue to see a playing time boost, and both are worth a look in deeper leagues amid their hot starts.

Jackson Chourio's estimated return from the fracture in his left hand has been pushed back into early May, so Bauers should continue to have some runway against righties.

Spencer Strider will begin a minor-league rehab assignment at High-A on Thursday as he works his way back from an oblique injury.

Ketel Marte was scratched from the lineup due to lower-back tightness.

Wyatt Langford returned to the lineup after missing three games with that quad injury.

Jackson Holliday has been pulled off his rehab assignment due to mild right wrist soreness. The Orioles don't seem too concerned, but it does put a bit of a delay on his eventual return – and potentially helps explain why he has struggled so much on his rehab assignment so far.

Gabriel Moreno was officially placed on the IL with a left oblique strain, retroactive to April 11. Given the nature of the injury, I'd be surprised if we saw Moreno before May.

Josh Hader threw a live batting practice on Tuesday. He's been sitting in the low 90s as he recovers from his biceps injury, so hopefully he'll start to dial it up as the competition increases.

Speaking of the Astros, imaging on Tatsuya Imai's right arm came back negative.  He's on the IL with arm fatigue and talked Tuesday about how much he has struggled with the transition to the majors, both on and off the field. It's a big change for a pitcher who has spent his entire career in Japan, so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he just needs some time to get comfortable.

Nick Lodolo could face hitters Friday. He has thrown a few bullpen sessions but has not yet thrown breaking balls, which is the issue for that blister.

Carlos Estevez could begin a rehab assignment within five days. Hopefully, he pitches somewhere with Statcast data available so we can see if he starts to recover his lost velocity.

Kyle Teel will begin a rehab assignment within one week. He's been out since suffering a hamstring injury during the World Baseball Classic and will likely need a multi-week rehab assignment, but is worth stashing in all two-catcher leagues.

Lourdes Gurriel will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A on Wednesday.

Pavin Smith will undergo surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow. He was placed on the 60-day IL and will be out approximately 6-8 weeks.

Quinn Priester is tracking toward beginning a rehab assignment at Triple-A next week as he works his way back from a nerve issue in his wrist.

Harrison Bader has been dealing with a minor left hamstring injury since spring training.

Jose Berrios will start a rehab assignment at Single-A on Wednesday.

Brandon Sproat will rejoin the Brewers' rotation on Thursday against the Blue Jays. There's some appeal here, but I need to see him succeed in the majors before I buy in.

Lucas Giolito is drawing interest from the Cubs and Padres, both of whom could use some boring veteran depth.

Here's a prospect to watch: Mariners president Jerry Dipoto said Colt Emerson is "as close as they come" to getting an MLB opportunity. Cole Young hasn't exactly set the world on fire after a big spring, so the opportunity could come at second base if they opt to give Emerson a chance, though that would feel like a quick hook for an interesting young player, too.