Fantasy baseball today: Sal Stewart's red-hot start signals emerging star with top-tier Fantasy upside

Projection systems are notoriously conservative, especially for young players, who face a steep learning curve at the MLB level. And yet, even after just 20 or so games, we've already seen a substantial increase in the expectations this system (typically the most accurate for Fantasy Baseball) has for Stewart. He's gone from the 14th-best projected first baseman by wRC+ to the seventh-best already. That's serious movement, and it's meaningful.

I can say this much with confidence: Stewart is almost certainly at least a good hitter. BaseballProspectus has a stat they call "Deserved Stats," and they've got Stewart down for a .264/.342/.495 hitter for his career, with a very similar line so far this season. If that's all he is, he's a top-12 first baseman, and would rank even higher when he gains eligibility at either third base (where he needs one more appearance to qualify in CBS Fantasy leagues) or second base (where he needs three more). And, given his excellent home park, it feels fair to say that mid-.800s OPS line is probably close to his floor.

That might not be enough for you. I know. Some of you want us to declare that Stewart is already a top-three third baseman, better than Nick Kurtz even. Memories can be short, and reacting to what you're seeing in the moment is exciting and fun, and Stewart has the look of an absolute star right now. He probably won't keep being this good moving forward – he hits the ball hard, but not astronomically so (75th percentile average exit velocity) and his plate discipline metrics suggest he probably deserves something more like average-ish results with his strikeout and walk rates; he has also dipped down to a 15.2% pulled-air rate, making his current elite power production harder to buy into. There will be regression.

But from a 20-ish game sample, Stewart has moved from a corner infielder we like to someone who will be starting a starting-caliber first baseman in all leagues moving forward. Is he a top-12 first baseman right now? Absolutely. Top-10? I'd lean that way.

Top-five? Well, I'm not ready to go there yet. The ceiling is certainly that high, especially with his rare out-of-position, 15-steal upside. But we'll see Stewart slow down, and we'll see pitchers adjust, and then it'll be incumbent on him to adjust back. That's when you really learn how good a player is.

But the ceiling? Well, that's what we're seeing right now, and it's tremendous. And if Stewart ends up as a top-five first baseman in all Fantasy formats by the summer months, I won't be too surprised.