Zack Wheeler's return to the mound shows promise for the Philadelphia Phillies but indicates a new reality following his injury. The implications of his performance will be significant for fantasy baseball players.
Key points
Zack Wheeler returned to the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies.
His performance shows promise but indicates a new reality post-injury.
The newsletter is shorter than usual due to hosting duties.
More details on weekend storylines are available in the Week 6 Waiver Wire column.
Just a note: Today's newsletter is going to be a bit more brief than your typical Monday morning reading. Why's that? I had to fill in for Frank Stampfl, hosting Fantasy Baseball Today last night, and lemme tell you: That's a lot of work.
So I won't be giving my usual six (or so) takeaways from this weekend's action. You will find my thoughts on some of the weekend's biggest storylines in my Week 6 Waiver Wire column here, and the biggest news of the weekend can be found at the bottom of today's newsletter.
But I did want to make sure I hit on one big storyline from this weekend: Zack Wheeler's return, what it looked like, and what it means moving forward.
Big picture: If you were expecting Wheeler to look absolutely no worse for the wear coming off Thoracic Outlet surgery, you're going to be disappointed. But if you were worried about the absolute worst-case scenario outcomes where he just doesn't even look like he belongs, fear not; that also wasn't the case.
All told, Wheeler pitched extremely well, though! Facing a Braves lineup that has been one of the best in baseball so far this season, he limited them to two earned runs on three hits over his five innings of work. He struck out six on 15 whiffs, which was especially nice to see, and the three walks can probably be chalked up to rust; he threw just 32% of his pitches in the strike zone, a number that probably won't stay that low.
The velocity was down, as expected, though I suppose you can look at that from both angles, too. If you're inclined to be optimistic, you'll point to his 95.6 mph average fastball velocity in the first inning as a sign that he's still capable of getting up to the level he lived at pre-injury; he averaged 96.1 mph last season. Even for one inning, it looked like he could still dial it up like that.
On the other side – and the one I ultimately fall on – you have the fact that Wheeler couldn't sustain that velocity at all. He dropped to 94.6 mph with the four-seamer in the second inning and averaged 94.2 mph over the final four innings of his game. That's up a little from where he was for much of his rehab assignment, but still down 2 mph from the last time he was healthy, and he was down to 93.6 mph by the fifth inning.
Q&A
What does Zack Wheeler's return mean for the Philadelphia Phillies?
Zack Wheeler's return brings hope for improved pitching performance for the Phillies, but it also signals adjustments needed post-injury.
How did Zack Wheeler perform in his return from injury?
Details on Zack Wheeler's performance in his return indicate he showed promise, though specific stats were not provided.
What are the implications of Wheeler's injury for fantasy baseball?
Wheeler's injury and subsequent return may affect his value and role in fantasy baseball, requiring managers to reassess their strategies.
What are the key storylines from the weekend's fantasy baseball action?
The weekend's fantasy baseball action featured several key storylines, with Wheeler's return being one of the most significant.
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I'm inclined to chalk the first inning up to adrenaline. That's not to say he can't continue to build on this, but my expectation moving forward is that Wheeler is a lot more likely to live around 94 mph than 96. That doesn't mean he can't succeed – we've seen Brandon Woodruff remain a very effective pitcher despite a similar drop in fastball velocity, and Wheeler has the kind of stuff and command profile that could make it work like Woodruff has. But I do think it lowers both the floor and ceiling for Wheeler; he might still be capable of great starts, but they'll be fewer in number than they were in the past, and the poor starts will probably be a little worse. The good nights will be less representative of the true talent level, and the bad nights will be just a bit more real.
But I don't want you to panic. Wheeler still looked pretty good, and I do think it's reasonable to expect him to be an above-average pitcher moving forward. At least in his first start, the bottom hasn't fallen out of his profile. According to the Stuff+ model on FanGraphs.com, Wheeler dropped from a 111 mark last season to a 104 in his first start; that's like going from a top-five mark in 2025 to around 20th among 52 qualifiers.
I think that's a good mental model for Wheeler moving forward. He's probably not going to be an elite pitcher again. It's asking too much at 35, coming off a notoriously tricky injury for pitchers. But he's probably not going to be hopeless, either. Maybe he's more like Sandy Alcantara moving forward; maybe it's like Kevin Gausman, or maybe a Tanner Bibee comp might work. There's a fairly wide range of outcomes at play here, including that Wheeler pitches well but just struggles to stay on the mound.
It was a good first start, though. And it's one he might be able to build on. It's possible I'm being too pessimistic. But the biggest thing I was looking for in Wheeler's debut was evidence that he still belongs. And we got that, at least.
You can check out Scott's two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to no-thanks.
He gone. Jordan Romano was designated for assignment Sunday, a big fall for a guy who opened the season as the Angels' closer. The ninth inning here is wide open, but my money remains on Kirby Yates ending up in the job. A few guys got a try at some high-leverage situations Sunday, and all of them failed. There just isn't a ton of talent here, but maybe Yates can change that.
Geraldo Perdomo missed Sunday's game due to an ankle sprain suffered Saturday. The Diamondbacks have maintained they don't expect an IL stint for Perdomo, but if I have an alternative ready at SS, I don't mind sitting him this week.
The Braves haven't committed to Reynaldo Lopez making his next start, but they have committed to JR Ritchie for Wednesday's game. They'll have a decision to make when Spencer Strider is ready to come off the IL, and this could be a hint.
Strider made what is expected to be his last rehab start Sunday. The results were fine, but after he showed some flashes of a better fastball in his previous start, he lost an inch of IVB and about a tick of velo on the pitch this time around. I'm still hoping Strider can be a useful Fantasy option, but I am not expecting him to be an ace again. There will be nights, even whole months, where he just doesn't have it, even if there could still be some impressive stretches.
Trey Yesavage will return to Toronto's rotation Tuesday against the Red Sox, with Eric Lauer going to the bullpen. I wouldn't be surprised if they were extra cautious with his workload, as he only got up to 64 pitches in his last rehab start. That makes him a risky start.
Brent Rooker was activated from the IL Sunday after missing about two weeks with an oblique injury.
George Springer is expected to return from his toe injury early this week.
Josh Naylor was held out of the starting lineup Sunday with a bruised quad, but he is available to pinch-hit, and it isn't believed to be serious. He's been running lately and is up to four steals on the season now.
Sonny Gray is on track to return from his hamstring injury when first eligible May 6.
Jackson Holliday had a full battery of tests done after he left Tuesday's game on his rehab assignment, but no structural issues came up. We still don't have a timetable for his expected return from the IL, but it does sound like he at least avoided a serious setback with his fractured hamate bone.
Roman Anthony was back in the lineup Sunday after missing four games with a back injury.
Eugenio Suarez was placed on the 10-day IL with a left oblique strain. It's considered mild, but obliques can be tricky. He'll be out at least this week.
JJ Bleday was recalled from Triple-A to replace Suarez and could factor into the outfield mix on a team getting very little from their outfield.
Maikel Garcia was out of the lineup all weekend as he continues to deal with right elbow soreness that forced him from Thursday's game. He feels like a risky start this week, though the Royals haven't ruled him out for any longer yet, and he did appear as a late replacement Sunday.
Jared Jones will start his minor-league rehab assignment Wednesday. He's working his way back from an Internal Brace procedure to repair a partially torn UCL in his right elbow and is likely looking at a late-May return from the IL. He's a worthwhile stash, but I'm not expecting Jones to be a difference maker in his first season back.
The Braves are hopeful Raisel Iglesias will be ready to return from the IL when he is first eligible, so Robert Suarez's immediate Fantasy relevance has a shelf life with an expected expiration date around May 4.
Steven Kwan missed a game Saturday with neck stiffness, but he was back in the lineup Sunday.
Luis Gil was optioned to Triple-A after Sunday's start. He just doesn't have anything right now and was tagged for six runs over 4-plus innings Sunday. With Carlos Rodon and Gerrit Cole coming back from elbow surgeries, I wouldn't be surprised if the next time we see Gil is as a reliever.
The Yankees also promoted Jasson Dominguez, with Giancarlo Stanton dealing with a calf injury. Whether Stanton will go on the IL remains to be seen, but Dominguez should get some playing time – he was hitting over .300 with a K rate around 15% in Triple-A, so I'm interested to see what he might be capable of.
Carlos Rodon got up to 65 pitches in his first rehab start. I would guess he'll make at least one more rehab start before being cleared to return, but it might be two.
Spencer Schwellenbach will see a doctor in early May and hopes to be cleared to begin throwing. It'll probably be another couple of months before he's able to pitch for the Braves, even if that all goes well, but it is at least a sign he could be back this season.
Will Smith was held out of the starting lineup Saturday and Sunday due to a back issue.
Kyle Teel has not been cleared for his minor-league rehab assignment as he continues to deal with some soreness in that hamstring. We're probably looking at a multi-week absence from this point, even if he is cleared soon.
Adrian Del Castillo left Sunday's game with a dislocated finger on his left hand.
Clayton Beeter was placed on the IL with right forearm soreness. Gus Varland the next man up?
Tatsuya Imai will make a minor-league rehab start at Double-A Tuesday. He's been dealing with arm fatigue, but this all just feels like an attempt to reset and see if he can get on track after trouble adjusting to life in the majors. I remain hopeful.
Phil Maton is expected to be activated from the IL Monday, and he's worth a look as a speculative add for saves, given the Cubs' bullpen injuries.
Lucas Giolito got hit on the hand during his first minor-league start, but it sounds like there's little concern here moving forward.
Logan O'Hoppe was placed on the IL with a fractured left wrist
Nathan Lukes was placed on the IL with a hamstring injury
Andrew Vaughn hit on the field Friday and could be cleared to begin a rehab assignment sometime this week as he works his way back from a broken hamate bone.
Dean Kremer is expected to miss several weeks due to his right quad strain.
Tyler O'Neill was activated from the concussion IL Friday.
The Mets optioned Christian Scott to Triple-A after he failed to get out of the second inning in his first start of the season Thursday.
