Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Hitter matchups to exploit and stream in Week 4, based on advanced stats

We introduced the following adjusted scores as a way to quantify team pitching matchups for opposing hitters. We used several team-level advanced metrics to weigh and adjust scores. For fun, we included the beginning of the 2026 season. However, the 2026 numbers aren’t weighted as much, compared to the significantly larger 2025 sample, as a way to show any early-season differences.

Top 12 team starting pitchers for Week 4. (Photo by Corbin Young/Yahoo Sports)

A lower adjusted score indicates the hitting matchup should be more favorable against those team pitchers. The opposite is true, where a higher adjusted score suggests teams facing these pitchers may face challenges in their upcoming matchups. We used conditional formatting to indicate that the projected “easier” matchups should be green and the tougher matchups should be shaded red.

Bottom 12 team starting pitchers heading into Week 4. (Photo by Corbin Young/Yahoo Sports)

We’ll look at a few Week 4 hitter matchups to monitor. Additionally, we’ll highlight several hitters to consider adding based on their matchups, skills and playing time.

Schedule Notes

The toughest pitcher matchups heading into Week 4 include the Mariners, Rangers, Yankees, Brewers, Phillies, Guardians, Dodgers, Reds and Braves. Wildly enough, the Mariners, Rangers, Yankees, Phillies and Guardians took a step forward in K-BB% in the early 2026 sample. That will make it challenging for the Padres and Rangers, who face the Mariners. However, Texas plays against the Athletics in Sacramento, and the park factor may balance the pitching matchup.

However, we’ve seen the Dodgers’ starting pitchers take a step backward in K-BB%, likely because their rotation has been bumpy, beyond Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Emmet Sheehan had a bounce-back outing over the week, potentially making L.A.’s matchups against the Mets and Rockies a bit more challenging for those hitters.

Somehow, the Braves’ starting rotation has been holding it down with Chris Sale and Grant Holmes leading the charge, yet Bryce Elder and Reynaldo López have been productive early in 2026. That might not be sustainable for Atlanta, so Marlins and Phillies hitters could take advantage of these mediocre options.

It’s a good week to stream hitters against the Nationals, Athletics, Angels and Orioles pitchers, especially since those pitching staffs have a seven-game week ahead. Washington is rolling out a starting rotation of post-hype sleeper Cade Cavalli, followed by the likes of Miles Mikolas, Jake Irvin and Foster Griffin.

We haven’t seen those offensive spikes in Sutter Health Park (Athletics’ home park) yet, but they play seven games at home against Rangers and White Sox hitters. We might see better weeks from Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter and Josh Smith. Monitor Langford’s health because he was out of the lineup with a quadricep injury on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Munetaka Murakami could continue smacking home runs. It’s funny to see Rockies’ starting pitchers improve their K-BB% while stranding more runners in 2026, though it’s likely a noisy small sample. However, it’s worth highlighting that Colorado played away from Coors Field in 10 out of the first 16 games in 2026.

Seven Game Slates

• Athletics (4 vs. TEX, 3 vs. CWS)

  • They face right-handed pitchers in six out of seven games in Week 4, including three weaker ones in the latter half of the week. The White Sox have Erick Fedde, Davis Martin and top pitching prospect Noah Schultz projected to start later in the week. Schultz looks to have a two-start week against the Rays and Athletics. Jeff McNeil serves as the Athletics’ strong-side platoon bat, though he has been solid against lefties (110 wRC+) and righties (120 wRC+) in his career.

• Orioles (3 vs. ARI, 4 at CLE)

  • They project to face righties in four out of seven games, making it a riskier week for Samuel Basallo, Dylan Beavers and Colton Cowser.

• Astros (1 at SEA, 3 vs. COL, 3 vs. STL)

  • I almost overlooked Houston playing Seattle for one game to begin Week 4, a rare carryover game from the following week’s series.

• Angels (4 at NYY, 3 vs. SD)

  • Angels’ hitters will face right-handed pitchers in five out of seven games in Week 4, mainly impacting Josh Lowe. Nolan Schanuel has sat against the two left-handed pitchers they faced to begin the season, but he performs relatively evenly against both sides of the plate. That’s evident in Schanuel’s 102 wRC+ against lefties and 108 wRC+ versus righties in his career.

• Yankees (4 vs. LAA, 3 vs. KC)

  • This will be a risky week for the strong-side platoon options since they project to five lefties in five of seven games. That will negatively impact Trent Grisham and Ryan McMahon, though we could see more plate appearances for Amed Rosario.

• Pirates (4 vs. WSH, 3 vs. TB)

  • We’ll discuss Pirates’ hitters more below because they’ll face several below-average starting pitchers. They project to face right-handed pitchers in five of seven games in Week 4, including 3 out of 4 in the first half of the week. This could be a week for Pirates’ hitters to heat up.

• Mariners (1 vs. HOU, 3 at SD, 3 vs. TEX)

  • Mariners’ hitters project to face righties in six out of seven games, with MacKenzie Gore being the only lefty on the slate. Gore pitched well against Seattle last week, as Mariners’ hitters rank last in contact rate with the second-highest swinging strike rate. Volume should be in their favor, and hopefully, they start improving their plate discipline as a team.

• Rangers (4 at ATH, 3 at SEA)

  • Rangers’ hitters will face right-handed pitchers in five out of seven games, with a mixture of hitter-friendly and pitcher-friendly ballparks. Seattle’s home park ranks 29th in Baseball Savant’s park factor, with the Athletics’ home park in second over the past two seasons.

Week 4 Matchups to Monitor

Joey Loperfido, 1% Rostered, Astros (1 at SEA, 3 vs. COL, 3 vs. STL)

Loperfido projects as a strong-side platoon option, but played against a left-handed pitcher once last week. The Astros project to face right-handed pitchers in six out of seven games in Week 4, including three against the Rockies and three versus St. Louis (RHP Kyle Leahy, RHP Andrew Pallante and LHP Matthew Liberatore). As an Astros’ former top prospect, Loperfido’s .300 batting average has been BABIP-fueled (.429). Loperfido struggles with plate discipline from a contact standpoint, given his 68.2% career contact rate in.

He boasts a 72.7 mph bat speed in his career, hinting at 15-20 home runs within the range of outcomes. Loperfido has shown a sneaky good 99.1 mph Exit Velocity 50 (EV50), tying him with Byron Buxton and Bo Bichette in 2026. EV50 is the average of the hardest 50% of a player’s batted balls, giving us a more reliable exit velocity metric than average exit velocity. All told, Loperfido should have a strong offensive week.

Dominic Canzone, 8% Rostered, (1 vs. HOU), 3 at SD, 3 vs. TEX) / Luke Raley, 10% Rostered, (1 vs. HOU), 3 at SD, 3 vs. TEX)

It’s a full week of seven games for the Mariners, and they project to face right-handed pitchers in six out of seven games. Canzone has been more reliable than Raley, but maybe there’s some deep-league juice in the veterans. Raley is tied for the team lead in home runs (3) while boasting a 126 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers throughout his career.

Dominic Canzone Ideal Attack percentage by season. (Photo by Corbin Young/BaseballSavant)

We discussed Canzone earlier in the season, especially with his increased bat speed by 1.5 mph in 2026 (74.6 mph). He has been swinging faster and showing a higher percentage of swings within the ideal attack angles (5-20 degrees). Canzone’s ideal attack percentage jumped to 66.7% in 2026, up over 15 percentage points from the career norm (51.7%).

Fantasy managers should have more confidence in Canzone sustaining beyond Week 4, and Raley should be a solid source of power this week.

Liam Hicks, 53% Rostered, Marlins (3 at ATL, 3 vs. MIL)

Hicks will face five right-handed pitchers out of Miami’s six scheduled games, making him a helpful strong-side platoon option in weekly lineup leagues. He was rolling to begin the season after only 119 plate appearances in his major league career before 2026. Hicks has three home runs and three barrels while pulling the ball significantly more in 2026.

Liam Hicks' 10-game rolling pull rates. (Photo by Corbin Young/FanGraphs)

His 42.5% pull rate translates to a whopping 25% pulled air rate in 2026. It’s a tiny sample, but Hicks saw his pulled exit velocity jump to 89.3 mph in 2026 from 85.2 mph in 2025. Hicks should earn more playing time in Week 4 with a heavy dose of right-handed pitchers. It’s a mixed bag of three games at home against the Braves and three against the Brewers.

Pirates’ Hitters (4 vs. WSH, 3 vs. TB)

In the first half of the week, Pittsburgh faces one of the worst starting rotations in the Nationals. Ryan O’Hearn and Oneil Cruz have been productive early in 2026. However, there’s a good chance Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, Spencer Horwitz and Konnor Griffin heat up with favorable matchups in Week 4. Horwitz showed strong contact skills (82.6%) and decent power (7.7% barrel rate) throughout his career. Meanwhile, Lowe historically showed the loud power (13% barrel rate) while struggling to make contact (68.4%).

They’ll face Cavalli, Mikolas, Irvin and Griffin in Pittsburgh for the first four games of the week. Mikolas has a 6% K-BB% with Cavalli at 3.2%. Irvin (12.5%) and Griffin (9.5%) lead the team in K-BB% in 2026. However, Irvin has a career 10.2% K-BB% with Griffin at 5.9%, making the early sample somewhat noisy. Pirates’ hitters should be one of the productive headlines early in Week 4.

Deep-League Hitter Waiver Wire

Garrett Mitchell, 17% Rostered, Brewers (3 vs. TOR, 3 at MIA)

Mitchell has been productive in the 2026 season. He projects to face five right-handed pitchers over their six games in Week 4. Mitchell sat against the four left-handed pitchers Milwaukee faced while hitting toward the top of the lineup when facing righties. Though Mitchell’s .533 BABIP has been fueling his production (.281 batting average, 1 home run and 3 stolen bases), he possesses strong bat speed (76.1 mph) and fast swing percentages (60.9%) in his career. Since Mitchell has been hitting the ball hard, we could see the home runs coming soon.

Garrett Mitchell's rolling bat speed. (Photo by Corbin Young/Yahoo Sports)

Luisangel Acuña, 4% Rostered, White Sox (3 vs. TB, 3 at ATH)

Acuña has only three home runs in his MLB career, yet we’re seeing better bat speed (72.8 mph) in 2026, similar to his early numbers in 2024 (73.6 mph). That’s been over 1 mph faster than Acuña’s career average, hinting at the potential for double-digit home run power. He maintains strong plate discipline with a career 78.8% contact rate, providing a floor for batting average. Furthermore, Acuña has been swinging in the ideal attack angle at a whopping 73.2% of the time in 2026. That indicates nearly three-fourths of Acuña’s swings have been in the ideal range of 5-20 degrees. Acuña’s 40% stolen base opportunity rate in 2026 has also been similar to his career norm (34%).

Target Acuña for batting average and stolen bases.

Troy Johnston, 8% Rostered, (3 at HOU, 3 vs. LAD) / Edouard Julien, 3% Rostered (3 at HOU, 3 vs. LAD)

There’s a chance that we might’ve missed two of Johnston’s best weeks, with a .333 BA and 1 HR in Week 2 and a .240 BA and 1 HR in Week 3. Johnston was claimed off waivers by the Rockies after being somewhat of a Quad-A player with the Marlins. He had 26 home runs and 24 steals in 2023 across two levels, then 11 home runs and 17 steals at Triple-A in 2024, before hitting 12 home runs and swiping 31 bags in 2025 at Triple-A. However, Johnston’s 32nd percentile Sprint Speed might hint at the stolen bases not being sustained in the majors.

Johnston uses an aggressive approach with a career 37% chase rate and 51.3% swing rate, being 5-6 percentage points above the league average. He has shown league-average to above-average contact rates, with a 77% contact rate in 2026. Those metrics seem to align with Johnston potentially having a strong hit tool, swinging at ideal attack angles 53-54% of the time, slightly above the league average. Stream Johnston for batting average and some power.

Don’t look now, but former Twins’ prospect Edouard Julien is hitting at the top of the Rockies’ lineup. They haven’t faced a left-handed pitcher since April 4th heading into Sunday. We’ll see if Colorado puts him into a platoon or if he continues to hit well enough to stay in the leadoff role. Even if they do platoon, Rockies’ hitters project to face righties in five out of six games.

Edouard Julien 15-game rolling average. (Photo by Corbin Young/Yahoo Sports)

Julien’s .455 BABIP is fueling the .344 BA early in 2026. However, Julien is making more contact 78.6% in 2026, five points higher than his career average. Given Julien’s contact rate and high line drive approach, there’s a good chance Julien continues to provide batting average while accumulating counting stats atop the lineup. Julien has been hitting the ball harder, with a 101.3 mph EV50, putting him near Jonathan Aranda, Kyle Manzardo and Junior Caminero, though the main difference is Julien’s launch angle (3.3 degrees), suggesting plenty of groundballs.

David Hamilton, 4% Rostered, Brewers (3 vs. TOR, 3 at MIA)

Think of Hamilton like a lite version of José Caballero. Hamilton has 55 stolen bases over 508 plate appearances in 2024 and 2025. He already swiped four stolen bases across 40 plate appearances in 2026. In two seasons with the Red Sox, Hamilton boasted a 54% stolen base opportunity rate in 2024 and 75% in 2025. However, we’ve seen Hamilton’s stolen base opportunity rate dip to 33% in 2026 with the Brewers.

Hamilton has been playing all over the infield, as a strong-side platoon option, though he played against one lefty last week. Milwaukee projects to face three right-handed pitchers in the first half of the week against the Twins. However, they’ll face two lefties in the latter half of the week versus the Tigers. There’s a chance Hamilton pinch runs if he doesn’t start against a lefty, making him a stolen base streamer to consider.