Fantasy baseball waiver wire: Zack Wheeler nears return, Spencer Strider shows encouraging signs, more

But, as a general rule, you shouldn't bet on outliers. You'll go broke a lot more often than you win. I might be trying to trade Wheeler before he debuts if I had drafted him anywhere.

But first, a quick Spencer Strider update …

Strider made his second rehab start Tuesday with Triple-A Gwinnett, and while he probably needs at least another start before he'll be cleared to return from his oblique injury, it's worth taking a look at what Strider did. Because it was really impressive, and at least a little bit promising!

The results were excellent, but that kind of goes without saying when you've got an experienced major-leaguer going up against a lineup of mostly minor-leaguers – the MLB players in the lineup were the likes of Christopher Morel and Esteury Ruiz, so the point still stands, I think. He struck out eight over 4.1 shutout innings, allowing just one hit and one walk over 65 pitches. But he dominated during his minor-league rehab starts last season, striking out 27 batters in 13.2 innings, and that didn't stop him from struggling against big-leaguers. So no, the results here aren't really what we're looking at.

It's the under-the-hood stuff, and that's where Strider showed some real signs of promise. He averaged 95.9 mph with his four-seamer in this one, up 0.4 mph from his average last season and 1.4 mph from where he was this spring. That's still down 1.3 mph from 2023, and it's not like he didn't have some starts in the same range last season, so this isn't totally uncharted territory for the post-injury version of Strider.

But velocity isn't the only thing we're looking for. Movement matters, too, and Strider was getting 18 inches of induced vertical break on the four-seamer. That was a level he only reached twice in a start last season, and in both cases, his velocity wasn't as high as it was Tuesday. The best he managed in a start in 2025, while averaging at least 95.9 mph with his four-seamer, was a June start where he sat at 96.0 with 16.3 inches of IVB.

That's notable. It doesn't mean Strider is going to be back to his 2023 form. It doesn't even necessarily mean he'll be better than he was in 2025. But it's a positive sign from a guy who hasn't had a lot go right over the past couple of starts. And it's a reason to hope we might get something better than we did last season. I don't expect Strider to be a top-25 SP this season, or anything – after all, these improvements may not even stick.

But it does make me feel at least a little bit more optimistic about his chances of being a useful Fantasy rotation piece moving forward. Let's see if he can hold onto it for his next start.

Here's what else you need to know about from Tuesday's action around MLB:

Wednesday's top waiver-wire targets

Here's who we're looking to add coming out of Tuesday's action:

Robert Suarez, Braves (61%) – Suarez was always a weird pick in drafts because he's an elite closer who needed something to go wrong with Raisel Iglesias, another elite closer, to have much value. Well, as it turns out, things go wrong, and in Iglesias' case, it came from … sleeping on his shoulder the wrong way. Iglesias was placed on the IL Tuesday, and while testing didn't reveal structural damage, Suarez will now get a chance to close for at least the next two weeks for one of the best teams in baseball. That's enough to make him worth rostering in all leagues, especially with the chance that Iglesias' absence ends up being longer than just the minimum. But no matter what, you'll want Suarez in your lineup for as long as Iglesias is out.

Louie Varland, RP, Blue Jays (26%) – This Jeff Hoffman thing is becoming untenable. He got the vote of confidence over the weekend and struck out the side Monday against the Angels, but it was back to what has unfortunately become business as usual for him Tuesday, as he loaded the bases while recording just one out before giving up a one-run single and being pulled from the game. That's when Varland stepped in to immediately generate a game-ending double-play to secure the 4-2 win. At their respective bests, I think Hoffman is the better pitcher than Varland, but we just haven't seen enough of that from Hoffman since he signed with the Blue Jays before the 2025 season. Varland, on the other hand, has yet to allow an earned run this season while striking out 19 in 13 innings of work. The Blue Jays clearly trust him – he appeared in an MLB record 15 games during their 2025 postseason run – and my sense is, they'd prefer to have him available in a more versatile, high-volume role rather than as a strict closer. But with Hoffman pitching like this, I think they've gotta hand it over to Varland for the time being.

Payton Tolle, SP, Red Sox (44%) – It hasn't been confirmed yet, but all signs point to Tolle being the choice to replace Sonny Gray in the Red Sox rotation. That start sounds like it would likely come this weekend against the Orioles, and Tolle is the kind of talent worth adding in all leagues, even if we don't know how long he'll stick around. He didn't blow the doors off the place in his first taste of the majors last season, but Tolle comes armed with one of the best four-seam fastballs of any pitcher in the minors, and he's throwing the rest of his arsenal even more this season as a developmental focus. The fastballs should be the star of the show here, and it's a heck of a foundation that saw him emerge as a top prospect last season while putting up a 3.04 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 36.5% strikeout rate in the minors. If he pitches up to his potential, he could stick around the Red Sox rotation, and he has top-40 SP upside.

Chase Dollander, SP, Rockies (18%) – Okay, it might be happening. You have to genuinely be a top-20 type of talent to be worth using consistently at Coors Field, and I don't think Dollander is that kind of pitcher – but he was viewed as having that kind of potential as a prospect, at least. But he's taken a big step forward since an abysmal rookie season, and he struck out nine batters for the second outing in a row Tuesday against the Padres. That gives him 27 strikeouts in 21 innings in April now, and while he was being used as a bulk reliever type early on, he's basically getting a starter's workload following an opener now, throwing 102 pitches over six one-run innings Tuesday. I still don't trust it at Coors Field, but with his velocity up a tick and his whole arsenal playing up thanks to more diversity overall in his pitch mix, I think we're seeing a much-improved version of Dollander, and one I feel confident starting away from home. That's more than I can say for the likes of Reynaldo Lopez or Shane Baz, who feel like true random number generator types to me.

Christian Scott, SP, Mets (13%) – At one point, Scott was a pretty interesting pitching prospect. That was nearly three years ago now, of course, as Scott made his MLB debut in 2024 and struggled before undergoing Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2025 season. But he's been back and at least showing some interesting skills at Triple-A amid a 5.27 ERA in his first three starts. His fastball velocity is actually up a tick from his pre-injury form, and while that was never a great pitch for him, any extra bit of velo helps, especially if it helps lead to more whiffs with the rest of the arsenal. Scott has been missing bats well in the early going, and while I think it's kind of a long shot that he pitches well enough to both stick in the rotation and matter for Fantasy, there's at least a chance he catches lightning in a bottle here for deeper leagues.

Tuesday's standouts

Jarren Duran, OF, Red Sox – By nature, this tends to be a very pitcher-focused newsletter – when you're writing on a daily cadence about baseball, there's just more to sink your teeth into with pitchers than hitters. But we've gotta talk about Duran, because the Red Sox seem to be rapidly losing faith in him. In part, that's because he's just been ice cold to start the season, hitting .162 with a .490 OPS, numbers he will definitely improve on. But he's also started just one of the past four games so far and has sat out six games already. It's a lot easier to make those calls with Duran isn't hitting anyway, but this was always the risk with him – he's never really been able to hit lefties, and the Red Sox have a lot of alternatives they can turn to if things aren't going well with Duran. He'll be better moving forward, but he might also be digging himself a hole he can't get out of with the playing time. I'm concerned.

Nolan McLean, Mets vs. MIN: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 10 K – This had the makings of a historic night for McLean, who had a perfect game bid through the fifth inning for the second time already this season. He ran into some trouble in the sixth and ended up with a slightly less clean line than you'd hoped, but this was still an awesome start for an awesome pitcher. I wish I had him on more teams this season.

Jesus Luzardo, Phillies @CHC: 4.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 3 K – He's just a weird pitcher. When Luzardo is on his game, there are few better, and his peripherals remain borderline elite. I don't really see anything in his skill set to suggest there's much to be concerned about here, and this wasn't even an especially poor outing from Luzardo; he just didn't have his best command. He has entirely ditched his slider this season, which is an interesting note – it was his least-used pitch last season, but it was his best pitch for limiting damage on contact against righties, so I'm not sure it was a pitch he needed to shelve entirely. I don't know if that's enough to explain the poor start, so I continue to expect Luzardo to be very good moving forward.

Chase Burns, Reds @TB: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – The strikeouts have been a bit hit or miss for Burns so far, but the upside is clearly there. He misses a ton of bats (15 whiffs in this one), and I think we're looking at a strikeout rate around 30% moving forward. Consistency will be the issue for Burns, but I still think you'll end up very happy you drafted him as long as he stays healthy.

Shota Imanaga, Cubs vs. PHI: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – One start after he struck out 11 (with nine in the start before it!), we get this one from Imanaga. Oh, what, you're disappointed about his seven one-run innings? Yeah, Imanaga isn't an elite strikeout pitcher, and he'll likely never consistently be one, so this is just good old-fashioned regression to the mean happening all at once. The fact that it still came with excellent results is a reminder of how much of an edge this Cubs defense gives its pitching staff. He's an obvious must-start pitcher.

Parker Messick, Guardians vs. HOU: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – Going against one of the best offenses in baseball, coming off a near no-hitter where he threw 112 pitches … I'll take it! Messick isn't going to sustain a sub-2.00 ERA moving forward, and there will surely be some uglier starts in his future. But I heard Derek Van Riper make a Max Fried comp for Messick on the Rates and Barrels podcast the other day, and honestly, I love it. Very different builds, and I think it's probably unfair to expect Messick to consistently have Fried's level of command. But a poor man's Max Fried is still a very, very good pitcher. Top-50 at least.

Kris Bubic, Royals vs. BAL: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K – Six walks and six strikeouts in 10.2 innings over the past two starts is pretty disappointing, especially since he had 11 in the start before that. The iffy command is especially disappointing from Bubic, who had a manageable 8.2% walk rate last season, which has risen to 11.5% in the early going. I don't see much in the underlying numbers to be concerned about here, so I'll take the under on both the current walk rate and 4.08 ERA.

Connelly Early, Red Sox vs. NYY: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – Early's been a pretty big disappointment so far. The stuff looks good, but not as good as last season, but it feels like he's really not spotting his pitches as well, which is the main issue. And maybe we should have seen it coming – his 5.1% walk rate was a huge outlier for his career, as Early actually had a slightly higher than average 9.7% walk rate in the minors last season. He paired it with huge strikeout numbers, but those haven't been there, either. I'm not dropping Early, but I'd like to see something better from him moving forward.

Luis Castillo, Mariners vs. ATH: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – It just kind of feels like we're at the point with Castillo where I can only trust him at home, and even then, I'm not sure I can trust him to pitch like an ace on the road. I still think that gives him an edge over truly untrustworthy guys like Shane Baz or Reynaldo Lopez, so I would have a hard time dropping Castillo. But I definitely think you have to pick your spots with him nowadays.

Shane Baz, Orioles @KC: 6.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – I was interested in Baz as a change of scenery guy, but it looks like Baltimore hasn't had any more success solving this enigma than the Rays did. Baz still looks like he should be a good pitcher, but we're pretty far removed from his days as a top prospect, and we've seen nothing more than the occasional glimpses of another level. He'll have good starts moving forward, but I have no earthly idea how you could predict them. It makes him a fringe option, and not one you have to hang on to anymore.

Reynaldo Lopez, Braves @WAS: 1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 1 K – And sometimes the regression catches up to you all at once. I have not been a believer in Lopez's for a long time, but he was so successful in 2024 despite mediocre peripherals that I just kind of shrugged my shoulders when he opened this season once again succeeding with neither rhyme nor reason on his side. With two poor starts in a row now, I'm much more willing to say whatever One Weird Trick! he was doing to find success won't last. You can go ahead and drop him for any pitcher with a whiff of upside.

By the way, Lopez tonight is a good example of why I'm always wary of "I don't think he's good, but I'll use him while he's hot …" You probably didn't use him for the first start. Maybe you did for the second, and then rode him since. You had a 2.45 ERA for three starts, and now you have a 4.60 ERA after four starts with a 1.66 WHIP.

Dustin May, Cardinals @MIA: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Three good starts in a row for May after two disastrous ones to open the season have landed him with a 3.94 FIP, which sounds about right to me. With 7.3 K/9, that makes him just a streamer, but one who can clearly take advantage of matchups against light-hitting lineups like the Marlins and Guardians, at least. Do the Pirates still count as a light-hitting lineup? Either way, the second start next week will come against the Dodgers, so I don't think you have to view May as a must-add for the two-step here.

Luis Gil, Yankees @BOS: 6.1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K – Yeah, the stuff just isn't there anymore. This was a good start, but absolutely nothing about it feels sustainable with Gil sitting below 94 mph with his four-seamer. We're probably a few weeks from Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon being ready, but there's little doubt in my mind Gil's rotation spot will belong to one of them before long.