FC St. Pauli vs. VfL Wolfsburg preview: Relegation derby in Hamburg

In the scenario that St. Pauli wins, whether they actually qualify for the playoff becomes out of their control, as it is also dependent on what happens at Voith-Arena. Since Heidenheim and St. Pauli are tied on goal difference but Heidenheim lead on goals scored, if Heidenheim win their match and it is by a lesser margin than what St. Pauli wins by (for example, Heidenheim win 1-0 and St. Pauli win 2-0), then St. Pauli qualify for the relegation playoff. If Heidenheim win their match by an equal or greater margin compared to St. Pauli (for example, Heidenheim win 1-0 or 2-0 and St. Pauli win 1-0), then Heidenheim will qualify and St. Pauli are relegated.

Team News:

Both sides have long absence lists going into this match - St. Pauli have seven players on their list, while Wolfsburg have eight.

English striker Ricky-Jade Jones (ankle) is the only potential selection for the squad, but his chances are doubtful as he still recovers from an injury he picked up in the eightieth minute of a DFB-Pokal defeat to Bayer 04 Leverkusen in early February..

Austrian defender Jannik Robatsch (muscle), Estonian centre-back Karol Mets (muscle), and Greek right wing-back Manolis Saliakas (muscle) will all be absent for an unknown period after picking up injuries just last week. American defensive midfielder James Sands (ankle) was labelled as out for the remainder of the season back in March, but the exact timetable of his return for the 2026/27 season is still unknown as there are doubts of his return in time for the 2026 FIFA World Cup on home soil.

Austrian goalkeeper Simon Spari (ligament) and Portuguese attacking midfielder (knee) are both out until the end of the month, likely unable to play in the relegation playoff if St. Pauli qualifies but good to return in time for the 2026/27 preseason at the end of July.

Projected XI (3-5-2): Vasilj - Andō, Smith, Wahl - Ritzka, Fujita, Irvine, Metcalfe, Pyrka - Hountondji, Kaars.

VFL WOLFSBURG

On the other side of the field is VfL Wolfsburg (6-8-19, 16th), one of two teams that St. Pauli are facing in the relegation fight. Wolfsburg have never been relegated from the Bundesliga in their history; they promoted their way to the Bundesliga from the lower tiers of German football, but have stayed in the top tier following their first promotion in 1996/97.

Dieter Hecking’s side have won only two of their eighteen Bundesliga matches since the start of the new year (2-5-11) - in mid-January against St. Pauli and mid-April against 1. FC Union Berlin, both by 2-1 scorelines. Seven of their last nine Bundesliga defeats have been by one goal scorelines, including against the likes of Borussia Dortmund (1-2) and FC Bayern München (0-1).

VfL Wolfsburg are guaranteed to qualify for the relegation playoff with a win and a Heidenheim draw or loss against Mainz. If Heidenheim win that match, then Wolfsburg need to hope that they win by a lesser margin, an equal margin, or a greater margin of less than three goals than what Wolfsburg won by (for example, if Wolfsburg win 1-0 and Heidenheim win 3-0, Wolfsburg qualify on goal difference, but if Wolfsburg win 1-0 and Heidenheim 4-0, both teams are tied on goal difference but Heidenheim goes to the playoff on goals scored).

Wolfsburg can also qualify with a draw, but they would need Heidenheim to draw or lose their match with Mainz; a draw between Wolfsburg and St. Pauli at Millerntor, plus a Heidenheim win at Voith-Arena, relegates both Wolfsburg and St. Pauli to 2. Bundesliga.

The fact that they are facing Die Freibeuter this weekend gives them slightly more hope of survival. The most recent meeting between the two at the Volkswagen Arena on 14. January saw Wolfsburg control most of the key statistical categories and ultimately pick up all three points courtesy of Dženan Pejčinović in the eighty-eighth minute. If Pejčinović had not scored and that match ended in a draw, St. Pauli would have had 27 points and Wolfsburg 24 - creating what would have been a hypothetically difficult situation for Die Wölfe.

It is worth noting that the two sides have played relatively close matches since St. Pauli’s one-season spell in the Bundesliga in 2010/11. Wolfsburg are 2-4-1 in seven appearances against St. Pauli all-time, with their only defeat having come in a friendly before the start of the 2012/13 season. Both of their two meetings as the visiting side at Millerntor have ended in a draw, 0-0 in October 2024 and 1-1 in November 2010.

Team News:

Austrian winger Patrick Wimmer (muscle) has been completely ruled out of the match after picking up an injury in training earlier this week. Hecking mentioned both his state and those of German right-back Kilian Fischer / Danish striker Jonas Wind, who have both returned to the training ground in the last seven days: “Wimmer won't be able to play on Saturday; whether it will be enough for a possible relegation playoff, we are hoping so and it doesn't look too bad either. Kilian Fischer is back in training, but thinking about a squad spot would still be too early; Jonas Wind is very far along and could become an alternative in the playoff, provided we manage to avoid direct relegation.”

Wind (muscle) and Fischer (thigh) are both among the list of injuries on Wolfsburg’s side - with Brazilian defender Cleiton Santos (ankle), Brazilian defender Rogério (fitness), and Dutch centre-back Jenson Seelt (knee) also projected to return some time around the second leg of the relegation playoff.

German defensive midfielder Maximilian Arnold (groin) and Hungarian midfielder Bence Dárdai (anterior cruciate ligament) are the two names guaranteed to be absent until the 2026/27 season - with Dárdai in particular set to be returning when the preseason campaign starts in July.

Projected XI (3-5-2): Grabara - Koulierakis, Vavro, Belocian - Mæhle, Eriksen, Souza, Majer, Kumbedi - Pejčinović, Daghim.