The NFL Draft concluded with notable outcomes, including Ty Simpson rising to the top half of Round 1 and Garrett Nussmeier falling to QB10. Teams like the Raiders, Jets, and Browns made significant picks to address their needs.
Key points
Ty Simpson jumps into the top half of Round 1
Garrett Nussmeier drops to QB10
Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall to the Raiders
Ohio State and Miami dominate the first round
Chiefs and Cowboys have defense-heavy drafts
RaidersJetsOhio StateMiami
ty-simpsaon.jpg
Imagn Images
With the NFL Draft now in the rearview mirror, it's time to take stock of what happened.
Some of what we saw was expected. Fernando Mendoza went No. 1 overall to the Raiders. The Jets took an edge rusher at No. 2. Jeremiyah Love came off the board early. Ohio State (four players) and Miami (three) dominated the first round. There was a big run on tackles on Day 1.
The Chiefs and Cowboys had extremely defense-heavy drafts. The Browns drafted to fill their needs on the offensive line and at wide receiver early on. The Patriots landed a tackle. The Dolphins made a million picks. The list goes on.
But there were also things that were unexpected. And that's what we're here to talk about today. What did the draft experts get wrong this year? Let's look at five of the biggest surprises from the 2026 NFL Draft -- starting with the obvious one.
[Prisco's NFL Draft 2026 grades for every team, including best and worst picks for all 32 franchises
Pete Prisco
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Q&A
Who was the first overall pick in the NFL Draft?
Fernando Mendoza was selected as the first overall pick by the Raiders.
Which teams had the most players drafted in the first round?
Ohio State had four players and Miami had three players drafted in the first round.
What position did the Jets draft in the second overall pick?
The Jets selected an edge rusher with the second overall pick.
Where did Garrett Nussmeier rank among quarterbacks in the draft?
Garrett Nussmeier dropped to the position of QB10 in the draft.
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This one isn't necessarily the experts' fault. There's only so much medical information people outside the league have access to, and that information gap is obviously what informed McCoy's fall from a potential top-10 draft pick to the top of Round 4.
As we wrote over the weekend, McCoy suffered a torn ACL at the end of the 2024 college football season and did not play at all in 2025. He also did not participate in the NFL Scouting Combine, instead only working out and going through drills for teams in the weeks before the draft.
McCoy's ACL itself is reportedly in good shape, but there's concern about a bone plug that was used to repair a cartilage defect in his knee, per NFL Media. Some doctors believe he needs another surgery, which would require an "extensive" recovery.
According to Yahoo! Sports, some teams are taking the position that if the next surgery -- which could knock McCoy out for his entire rookie season -- is not successful, it could effectively end his career. The surgery would reportedly involve taking a piece of bone and cartilage from elsewhere in the knee and transporting it to try and fix the defect.
That's how you get a guy some considered the best cornerback in the class to fall to the first pick of the fourth round.
2. Ohio State defenders go (slightly) later than expected
Heading into the draft, it seemed possible Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles and Caleb Downs could all be drafted in the top five. Instead, only one of them did.
Reese didn't go No. 2 to the Jets, but instead No. 5 to their MetLife Stadium brethren in the Giants. Styles didn't go No. 4 to the Titans, but instead fell to the Commanders at No. 7. And Downs didn't go to the Giants, but instead fell out of the top 10 entirely before the Cowboys traded up to get him at the No. 11 pick. This is a very minor miss for the experts because they all went in the top half of the first round, but there was definitely buzz about them going even higher.
Simpson was widely considered the QB2 in this draft behind Mendoza -- that was clear coming into draft weekend. But until very shortly before the draft, it seemed like most people expected him to drop to the second round. Late first-round buzz started building in the final days leading up to Thursday, but most of it surrounded the Cardinals trading up for Simpson to grab him later in the round.
While he was connected to the Rams earlier in the draft process, most of that smoke stopped swirling after L.A. traded the No. 29 pick to the Chiefs for Trent McDuffie. That was considered the likely pick the Rams would use on Simpson, if they were to draft him. Instead, the Rams used the pick they got from the Falcons (No. 13 overall) -- to grab Simpson, who will become the heir apparent to Matthew Stafford.
In an ideal world, Simpson doesn't play for at least a couple of seasons, Jordan Love-style, but it was wild to see a team with such a narrow title window use its first-round pick this way.
[2026 NFL Draft: The one pick every fanbase will obsess over, including Ty Simpson to the Rams
Nussmeier, on the other hand, had a precipitous fall. He was the No. 3 quarterback in the CBS Sports prospect rankings. He was also No. 3 in Dane Brugler's rankings at The Athletic. He was No. 3 for Jordan Reid at ESPN. He was No. 4 for Bucky Brooks at NFL.com. And those guys weren't alone. He was No. 3 at Yahoo! Sports. He was No. 3 at Pro Football Focus. The list goes on and on.
But Nussmeier lasted all the way until the end of the seventh round, becoming the 10th quarterback selected at No. 249 overall. Such luminaries as Cole Payton, Taylen Green, Athan Kaliakmanis and Behren Morton came off the board before Nussmeier did. It was not quite as high profile as McCoy's, but it was still a pretty shocking fall.
Just about everybody knew that Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love was going to come off the board early. The only question was where. Not many had his teammate, Jadarian Price, also coming off the board in the first round -- but that's exactly what happened when the Seahawks made him the No. 32 pick in the draft.
There was considered to be a wide gap between Love and the next-best running back prospect in the class, and perhaps an even wider one between that prospect (Price) and the next-closest player. The draft did play out that way, with no running backs going between Price and Kaelon Black at pick No. 90, but it was still surprising to see two backs -- former teammates -- go on the first night of the draft.
