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Former Vikings GM criticizes immediate draft grades, emphasizing that true evaluations take 2-3 years. He cites examples like Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes to illustrate his point.
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Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
I say every April, after the NFL draft, that I think itâs ridiculous when so-called draft analysts in the media give grades to team drafts immediately afterward. The reality is that it takes at least two to three years to truly evaluate how a team did on draft day.
Example A â Tom Brady as a sixth-round pick in 2000 when he was a skinny QB out of Michigan. Example B â when the Chiefs traded their 27th overall pick and a third-rounder in 2017, plus their 2018 first-round pick, to move up to No. 10 overall and select Patrick Mahomes in a move that was considered risky for a ârawâ prospect who played for Texas Tech in the then-no-defense Big 12.
Then thereâs Joe Montana and Russell Wilson as third-rounders turned top QBs and Super Bowl champs.
With 15 Super Bowl titles, 11 Super Bowl MVPs and 39 Pro Bowls between them, those picks turned out pretty, pretty good (as Larry David would say on Curb Your Enthusiasm) for the Patriots, Chiefs, 49ers and Seahawks. Their drafts wouldâve been graded A+ a couple of years later just because they found their ultra-successful franchise quarterbacks.
Closer to home, Fran Tarkenton was a third-round pick in 1961, and it was hard to predict he would lead the Vikings to three Super Bowls and become an NFL MVP, nine-time Pro Bowler, and Pro Football Hall of Famer.
Analysts often provide immediate grades to generate discussion and interest, but these evaluations are typically superficial and not reflective of long-term success.
It generally takes at least two to three years to accurately assess the effectiveness of an NFL draft class.
He mentioned Tom Brady as a sixth-round pick and Patrick Mahomes, who was selected in a high-stakes trade, as examples of how draft success can take time to reveal.
Drafting successful quarterbacks like Joe Montana and Russell Wilson in later rounds highlights the unpredictability of the draft and the potential for overlooked talent.

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If J.J.McCarthy and Dallas Turner turn into All-Pros who someday lead the Vikings to the promised land, weâll give the 2024 draft an A+ for the Purple after they picked McCarthy and Turner in the first round. Sixth-rounder Will Reichard already is an All-Pro kicker from that draft class.
So while I can certainly give the Vikingsâ 2022 draft, which has no players still with the team, a resounding F, Iâm not going to grade the Vikingsâ just-completed 2026 draft for a couple of years. What if Caleb Banks stays healthy and is the next Chris Jones or Kevin Williams as a big, dominating defensive lineman? What if several of the remaining picks become starters, and a couple turn into top players?
Time will tell, but I do have several reactions as follows, and Iâll go round-by-round and hit on the Jonathan Greenard trade that I was not thrilled by:
Caleb Banks â DL, Florida â Round 1:
I respect and agree with always picking the best player available regardless of position (unless itâs a quarterback and the team already has a âfranchise QBâ). So I have no problem with the Vikings picking Banks as the top player on their draft board at No. 18 overall if he stays healthy and is a productive starter.

Florida Gators defensive lineman Caleb Banks (88) shakes hands with fans during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, November 16, 2024. The Gators defeated the Tigers 27-16. [Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun]
My problem is with his recent injury history: a broken foot that cost him all but three games last season at Florida, followed by breaking the same foot at the Combine, which he said happened as he was practicing starts for the 40-yard dash the night before he ran it.
The team doctors obviously signed off on Banks as a player who will recover from his recent foot surgery and have a long, healthy career (they better have done that). A big, strong run-stuffing D-lineman is great for the Vikings, who slipped last season from No. 2 to No. 21 on run defense. If Banks can provide an inside pass rush to push the pocket a la Chiefsâ All-Pro Chris Jones or Kevin Williams (five-time All-Pro for the Vikings in the 2000-2009 decade), weâll all call this a great pick.
Perhaps Banks will turn into an elite player, but I believe itâs too risky to use a first-round pick on a 330-pounder with a recent history of foot problems (thatâs a lot of weight on his feet). I wouldâve taken a safer player, such as safety Dillon Thieneman (or whoever they had the highest grade on at the time who did not have injury questions).
Jake Golday â LB, Cincinnati â Round 2:
I like that Golday brings size and versatility as a defender who played inside linebacker and edge rusher in college. He will be a quality pick in the second round if he can be a run-stopping inside backer, good cover outside LB, and/or the third edge rusher with Andrew Van Ginkel and Dallas Turner, and be a projected replacement for Greenard (which I doubt heâll be as effective at least this season).
I have to wonder if the Vikings should have taken highly-rated safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (who went No. 58 to Cleveland) at Goldayâs No. 51 spot to fill a big need position (again, if McNeil-Warren graded out at about the same level as Golday; if not, then I say go with the higher-rated Golday). Or take a center at another big need position since two highly-rated centers went after Golday in the second roundâLogan Jones to the Bears at No. 57, and Jake Slaughter was picked at No. 63 by the Chargers.
Again, I donât advocate for picking a lower-rated player at a position of need over the best player available in the first three rounds. But it will be interesting to follow the players I mentioned above that the Vikings passed on.
Domonique Orange â NT, Iowa State â Round 3a
Itâs great to have a rotation of quality defensive linemen. Many championship teams have used that formula. The Vikings should have an excellent rotation of run-stuffers and pocket pushers. Orange certainly looks like heâll be great against the run and help free up inside backers Blake Cashman and Eric Wilson to make a lot of plays.

Domonique Orange stands for a photo during Iowa State Football media day at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Friday, Aug. 2, 2024. © Zach Boyden-Holmes/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK.
In my early years with the Vikings, our terrific player personnel execs, Jerry Reichow and Frank Gilliam, always prioritized picking top defensive and offensive linemen early in the draft, so we were strong in the trenches. I like the Orange pick to help with that.
Caleb Tiernan â OT, Northwestern â Round 3b
I saw enough of backup tackles David Quessenberry and Justin Skule the past two seasonsâand so apparently did Kevin OâConnellâto know the Vikings needed a better backup OT with elite tackles Christian Darrisaw and Brian OâNeill missing time due to injuries and the Vikingsâ QBs not being well enough protected by the replacements.
Tiernan is another big guy at 6-8, 323 pounds, and he may be able to play guard too if needed. Again, if he was their highest-rated player at No. 97 over a center or wide receiver (to compete for the third WR spot after Jalen Nailorâs free agency departure and they did select a safety at No. 98) and he is a quality O-lineman who can be developed into a better lineman than Ryan Van Demark who was signed this offseason, then Iâm on board with Tiernan as the swing tackle/guard and as a possible future starter with OâNeill turning 31 in September.
Jakobe Thomas â S, Miami â Round 3c
Thomas was clearly a need pick, and as the Vikingsâ third pick in the third round, I have no problem going need here. Weâll see if Thomas pans out as a safety who is comparable to Thieneman or McNeil-Warren. I like his college production, with five picks and only one TD allowed in coverage last season, on a Miami team that made it to the title game. He was also an effective blitzer, which fits what DC Brian Flores wants out of his safeties.
I think the Vikings still need Harrison Smith to return and have Thomas as a potentially better cover safety than Josh Metellus, Theo Jackson, or Jay Ward. He should certainly be a good special teams player in his rookie season, and the Vikings hope he can become a quality starter sooner rather than later. OâConnell praised Thomas as âa very, very highly intelligent player,â which bodes well for him to earn a starting spot in Year 1 or 2 at the latest.
Max Bredeson â FB/TE, Michigan â Round 5a
With C.J. Hamâs retirement, Bredeson will have the opportunity to step into Hamâs fullback and special teams role and get on the field in his rookie year, possibly playing 20-40% of the offensive snaps depending on the opponent and how the game is going, and he should play on most, if not all, of the special teams. He is an excellent blocker and should be good in pass protection, which would help the run and pass game. Bredeson seems to be a good fifth-round pick.
Charles Demmings â CB, Stephen F. Austin â Round 5b
Thereâs a lot to like about Demmingsâ potential as a third or fourth corner and special teamer. Heâs fast and athletic, as shown by his 4.41 40 and 42-inch vertical jump at the Combine. The question will be how quickly he can adjust to the NFL and cover receivers who are a significant step up from those he covered in college for a smaller schoolâStephen F. Austin.
It will be interesting to see Demmings line up against Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison in OTAs, minicamp, and training camp, and then watch him in preseason games to see how NFL-ready he is.
Demond Claiborne â RB, Wake Forest â Round 6
Claiborne is a very intriguing late-round pick. He brings big-time speed (4.37 in the 40 as the third-fastest time at the Combine) and a dual threat as a quality receiver out of the backfield. If he can pass protect, Claiborne should have opportunities to contribute as a rookie since Aaron Jones usually misses a few games.

Feb 28, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Wake Forest running back Demon Claiborne (RB03) during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
I like his potential to be a bigger contributor in future years. He could also be a good kick returner with his elite speed and running ability. The Vikings would love to see Claiborne become the next Terrell Davis, a sixth-round running back steal by Denver in 1995 who went on to become an NFL and Super Bowl MVP and a Hall of Famer.
Gavin Gerhardt â C, Cincinnati â Round 7
Gerhardt brings plenty of college experience (49 starts) and may wind up as the Vikingsâ starting center someday, but it was disappointing that the Vikings waited until the seventh round to draft the position I thought was their most critical need following the retirement of the often-injured Ryan Kelly. The Vikings also didnât sign a top center when several were available in free agency.
Blake Brandel is the projected starting center this coming season, and heâll have to step up his game at a position he played in a few games last season when Kelly was hurt. Gerhardt should be able to win the backup center job over Michael Jurgens, who has struggled in his limited play time over the last two seasons.
Other Vikings Draft Reactions and thumbs down on the Greenard trade
As I said, I wouldâve liked to see a center drafted earlier and a wide receiver picked in the third or fifth round to compete for the third wide receiver role. It will work out fine for this year if last yearâs third-rounder, Tai Felton, makes a big jump in his second season or if the Vikings can sign Jauan Jennings, who played well for the 49ers the past two seasons (132 catches, 1,618 yards, and 15 TDs over 2024 and 2025). Jennings is a free agent who is reportedly set to visit the Vikings this week.
On the Greenard trade:Â I didnât like trading one of the best edge rushers in the league for two third-round picks. I think the Vikings shouldâve held out for a second-rounder, or, better yet, kept Greenard for at least one more year to see if he can return to his 2024 production, when he had 12 sacks and was a Pro Bowler.
He had two years left on his contract, and I think a solution to his contract demands for a new deal (that the Eagles gave him with a $25 million per year extension, an upgrade from his $19 million per year Vikings deal) couldâve been to give him a big incentive package that would kick in if he returned to double-digit sacks. Since he only had three sacks last season, anything over three sacks would not likely be earned and would not count against the salary cap.

Minnesota Vikings linebacker Jonathan Greenard celebrates with teammates Eric Wilson and Andrew van Ginkel during the first half against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, Dec. 14, 2025. The trio gathers after a defensive stop as the Vikings defense rallies during the NFC matchup on the road. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images.
That was what we did in Tennessee for Jevon Kearse when he had outplayed his rookie contract by his fourth season in 2002, and it just so happened that Jevonâs agent was Drew Rosenhaus, who also represents Greenard, so there was precedent for putting such a compromise in place with Rosenhaus.
The bottom line is the Vikings would be a better team coming out of the draft if they had kept Greenard and taken McNeil-Warren at safety instead of Golday in the second round, and perhaps Golday wouldâve made it to the third round when they drafted Thomas at safety. But maybe Golday and Thomas will prove to be great players, and Greenard will get hurt again.
If Greenard stays healthy, heâs a proven great player, and drafted players are projections, but weâll have to see how it all plays out.
Next week: Iâll analyze all four NFC North teams after free agency and the draft.