Free MLB home run picks April 17: Diamondbacks' Ketel Marte among expert's best bets for Friday

Goes without saying that if I am picking a guy to go yard, I'd recommend the cheaper and likelier option of Over 1.5 total bases (that's the baseline number) as well. Last Friday, my two HR plays were Toronto's Davis Schneider and Minnesota's Josh Bell from the same game. Neither went yard in a game with 14 runs scored (really!) and Bell was 0-for-4, but Schneider had a big night with two hits (one a double), two RBI and two runs.

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Here are my home run prop picks and analysis for Friday (odds subject to change):

• Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+328)
• Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (+240),

Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+328, DraftKings)

Chase Field is considered one of the better hitters' parks in the majors, and we obviously don't have to worry about weather in Phoenix. The Chase Field roof can be open in April but usually remains closed the rest of the regular season because of the heat. Arizona opens a weekend homestand against Toronto with a 9:40 ET first pitch.

While it's certainly not my top criteria, it's always nice to pick a rested guy ,and Marte will be that because the Diamondbacks were off Thursday. The three-time All-Star is off to a rough start at .211 with four homers and a .681 OPS. Last year in 126 games, the Dominican hit 28 bombs and had an an .893 OPS. Maybe Marte is simply a slow starter, but he just had a two-homer game Monday in Baltimore and his average has been steadily climbing since cratering at .152 in early April.

Marte has dealt with some back tightness and missed Tuesday. He usually plays second base but was at DH on Wednesday and might have to play there again Friday. That doesn't bother me.

The Blue Jays will start southpaw Eric Lauer on the hill. He was a massive surprise in 2025 and definitely played a role in Toronto winning the AL East and the pennant. But that seemed a bit of flukish and Lauer has come crashing back to earth this year at 1-2 with a 7.82 ERA with three homers allowed in 12.2 innings. Marte has terrific career splits off him at 7-for-19 with two homers and a 1.137 OPS.

Also consider Nolan Arenado -- almost forgot the Snakes acquired him in the offseason -- as Arenado is 7-for-24 with three homers and a 1.108 OPS vs. Lauer.

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Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (+240, FanDuel)

Let's be 100% clear on my Friday MLB home run plays: If the Rockies are home and it's not snowing (checking), I'm probably playing a hitter from said game. If you are even reading this, then I shouldn't have to explain how hitter-friendly Coors Field is -- if not quite as bad as it was when it first opened in 1995. I clearly remember the days of Larry Walker, Todd Helton, Andres Galarraga, Vinny Castilla and Dante Bichette just hitting bomb after bomb back in the day.

Now, I will say the winds are blowing in a bit tonight so that's not ideal, but there was no way I wasn't doing a Coors Field play my first opportunity of the season as the Rockies open a weekend homestand vs. the Dodgers with an 8:40 ET first pitch.

If you happened to be on SportsLine on Wednesday, I recommended a first-five play of Under 4.5 runs scored when the Dodgers hosted the Mets. I jumped on that once news broke that Ohtani was only pitching and not hitting. That's because he was a tad sore, apparently, from a hit-by-pitch from Monday's game.

Wednesday marked the first time Ohtani did not hit while pitching in a game since May 28, 2021, before the "Ohtani rule" was established allowing two-way players to remain in the lineup after exiting a start on the mound. That was adopted ahead of the 2022 campaign. That's how good Ohtani is, he changed 100-plus years of baseball.

The Dodgers were off Thursday, and Ohtani is absolutely expected back atop the Dodgers' lineup tonight. And knowing his flair for the dramatic, I'll bet he is chomping at the bit to bat and might just hit the first pitch of the game out. Ohtani has been utterly marvelous on the mound so far but not totally humming at the plate yet with a .250 average and five homers.

I have little regard for Colorado starting pitcher Ryan Feltner, who is 1-2 with a 7.30 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. He has allowed three homers in 12.1 innings after four in 30.1 IP in 2025. Ohtani is 1-for-7 off him with a double but last year at Coors Field hit three homers and had a 1.271 OPS in 21 Coors Field at-bats.

Also consider Freddie Freeman, who is 4-for-12 off Feltner with a double; Freeman is due, having not homered in eight straight games.

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