Weather conditions are affecting MLB home run prop picks, but there are promising opportunities for Juan Soto of the Mets. Despite chilly temperatures, home runs are expected to increase as the weather warms up.
Key points
Weather affects MLB home run prop picks.
Juan Soto is a strong candidate for a home run.
Home runs increase with warmer temperatures.
Last week's picks included Ozzie Albies and Joc Pederson.
More betting tips are available on SportsLine.
Juan SotoMetsBravesRangers
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It doesn't seem as if the weather has turned spring-like yet in some parts of the country even though we are a week-plus into May, which complicates making MLB home run prop picks. A Mets-Rockies game this week was postponed due to snow! Some Midwest and East Coast teams are also playing often in windy conditions. Even tonight, the forecasts around the country aren't great, although nothing should get rained out. Home runs go up when the temperatures do. It's not rocket science. That being said, we've got a pair of good home run props for you.
Last Friday, my MLB betting HR plays were the Braves' Ozzie Albies and Rangers' Joc Pederson. I'll say this every week: If I recommend a home run, then obviously Over 1.5 total bases would be a smart and more likely alternative. Albies didn't go yard at Coors Field but did have a double. Pederson's rough season continued last Friday at 0-for-3, but he was a longshot play for a reason.
Q&A
What are the best MLB home run picks for May 8, 2023?
Juan Soto of the Mets is highlighted as a strong candidate to hit a home run on May 8, 2023.
How do weather conditions impact MLB home run predictions?
Colder weather typically leads to fewer home runs, while warmer temperatures can increase home run rates.
What were the results of last week's MLB home run picks?
Last week's picks included Ozzie Albies and Joc Pederson, with Albies hitting a double but not a home run.
Where can I find more MLB betting tips and picks?
Additional MLB betting tips and picks can be found on SportsLine and through their Discord community.
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The 27-year-old Soto has hit at least 40 homers in back-to-back seasons (including the one year with Judge and the Yankees) but has only four this season. Granted, he landed on the injured list for a while and has been limited to 22 games. And it surely would help Soto to see more hittable pitches once All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor is back off the injured list and atop that New York lineup.
Soto did end a five-game homer drought on Wednesday, but that shot almost gets an asterisk because it was at Coors Field. He's still only batting .174 this month and slugging .391. But he will be playing at hitter-friendly Chase Field in Phoenix on Friday and facing a struggling right-hander in Ryne Nelson, who is 1-3 with a 6.61 ERA and seven homers allowed in just 31.1 innings. At home, he's been even worse: 0-2 with a 14.40 ERA and four homers allowed in three starts spanning 10.0 innings.
You can't really play Soto against lefties right now as his OPS against them is a paltry .632 with a single homer. Against Nelson, he is 3-for-12 with two homers and a triple.
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Zach Neto, Angels (+590, FanDuel)
I'm assuming you have seen the baseball movies "Major League" and "Bull Durham," among others. Those show you how baseball guys are more superstitious, it seems, than any other pro athlete. Hall of Famer Wade Boggs, for example, would only eat chicken before every game, earning the nickname "Chicken Man." Hey, whatever works for you.
Neto has pretty good power for a not-towering shortstop, having hit 26 bombs last year. He has six in 38 games in 2026. Neto will be facing the nasty Dylan Cease tonight, and he wouldn't normally be a guy I'd recommend a home run prop against because Cease strikes out and walks so many that oftentimes the ball isn't put in play. He has only allowed one dinger in 38.1 innings.
But Neto has good limited splits off Cease at 3-for-7 with two homers, good for an OPS of 1.786. That's fantastic at this price. I certainly wouldn't play Trout for a homer as he's 2-for-12 with no extra-base hits and eight strikeouts vs. Cease. Nolan Schanuel is 4-for-8 with a homer and double against Cease, so he's another possibility.
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