Free MLB home run picks, odds for April 20: Shohei Ohtani one of expert's best bets for Monday HR player props

Best Home Run picks for Monday

• Jordan Walker (+680)
• Kyle Stowers (+425)
• Shohei Ohtani (+225)

Jordan Walker (+680, FanDuel)

The weather isn't great for hitting home runs tonight, but we'll still do our best to get some value on our bets and give it a shot in the best hitting environments. One of those spots where it won't be cold or windy is indoors in Miami, and Jordan Walker is facing off with Max Meyer as he's just two home runs off the MLB lead with eight.

Walker seemingly overhauled his approach this offseason, chasing significantly fewer pitches out of the zone and whiffing less as well, which has allowed his immense power to shine. He's been crushing home runs to start the year for a Cardinals lineup that needs his production in order to roll, so I'm going to back him to homer tonight.

Meyer allowed seven home runs in just under 30 innings last year to right-handed batters with a .315 average against. The barrel rate for Walker is up to 98th percentile, nearly the best in the bigs, but the largest improvement has been in the launch angle sweet spot rate. This metric basically shows how Walker has drastically cut down his ground-ball and fly-ball mishit rate. Those are balls that are generally easy outs and cutting down on them has allowed him to really come into his own as a major threat at the dish. At this price, and being on the away team with a full nine at-bats, I love this play.

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Kyle Stowers (+425, BetMGM)

Stowers made his 2026 debut Sunday night and racked up two hits from three at-bats already, picking up where he left off last season. Of his 25 home runs last year, 14 came against right-handed fastballs and Michael McGreevy throws the fastball over 30% of the time against left-handed batters. He struggled against lefties last year, allowing nine long balls in 39.2 innings but he's only let up two homers to lefties in 15+ innings so far. That might make you think he has fixed his issues, but I would disagree.

McGreevy has been clobbered with 10 barrels already thus far, as he's seen his barrel rate jump to nearly 15%. Of course, that probably comes down a bit over time but Stowers was great against those fastballs last year. If McGreevy is going to give him a steady diet, I'm backing him to hit his first homer of the campaign this evening. This is less of a value play than Walker.

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Shohei Ohtani (+225, FanDuel)

Look for boosts or some kind of rewards promos to help with the odds here, but this should be a smash spot for Ohtani tonight. Jose Quintana is someone he is intimately familiar with, and they faced each other eight times last year when Ohtani went deep twice. Both home runs were scorched, at 108 and 116 mph exit velocities, with the second homer registered at 440+ feet.

Quintana has already allowed a staggering five barrels and seven hard-hit balls from just 26 balls put in play, which helps him to an expected ERA nearing 9. That should spell trouble in a park like this, where the veteran has yet to pitch this season. On Sunday, Ohtani had multiple hard-hit balls over 100 mph exit velocity, including one that went for a ground-rule double after landing 401 feet from the plate. It would have been a home run in 22 ballparks in the majors and needing a win on Monday to salvage a split of the series, I'm betting Ohtani doesn't let the next one stay in the park.