Free MLB home run picks, odds for April 23: Expert likes Aaron Judge in top HR player prop bets on Thursday

Judge has nine homers on the season for the pinstripes, tops on the team and third in MLB. Boston is calling up left-handed pitcher Payton Tolle from Triple-A Worchester for the start. He was not sharp in seven big league spots last year, giving up a pair of homers in two of his three starts. Judge has feasted on left-handers, hitting over half of his homers (five) in half as many at-bats compared to facing righties. Judge has three homers in the last week, and this sounds like a favorable opportunity to keep it going.

Byron Buxton, Twins (+367, DraftKings)

Minnesota's designated hitter has more homers this season than anyone on the Twins or the Mets for Thursday's matchup at Citi Field. He's crushed four of them in the last week alone, so he comes in hot. He'll face New York starter Christian Scott, who makes his first MLB start since Tommy John surgery in 2024. He'll give way to a bullpen with a 6.00 ERA the last two weeks. Wind could be a factor so it will take someone with legit pop to get the ball out. Buxton fits the bill.